Jonathan Spyer:
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The Islamic State is on its way to ceasing to exist as an entity controlling significant territory. This process is set to continue many months. But IS, having lost tens of thousands of fighters and with the flow of new recruits drying up, facing enemies with complete control of the skies and vast superiority in numbers and equipment, has no means of reversing the trend.
In Assad’s war further west, meanwhile, the rebellion is in retreat and its eventual eclipse seems a near certainty. The regime, with its Iranian, Russian and Hizballah allies, is currently seeking to reduce and destroy isolated rebel held enclaves in the midst of regime-held territory in western Syria. Hence the attacks on eastern Ghouta, and on Wa’er in the Homs area. Once this is done, the pro-regime forces may well turn their attention to south west Syria, and eventually also to rebel-held Idleb province in the north.
The regime is also now engaging in the war against Islamic State. Government forces reached the Euphrates River this week, after sweeping through IS-held territory in the east Aleppo countryside.
As the direction of events becomes clear, so the possibility emerges of the Iran-led alliance achieving an overall victory in the Syria and Iraq wars...For more on what such an outcome might look like - and how it might be prevented - go to the link.
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