Morning Report: December 13, 2006

Messages. Iraq, Saudi Arabia ... Is somebody trying to tell us something? In the information war, everyone's a soldier. But in this battle of intelligence, some people are unarmed.

Karzai decries Pakistan's actions. BBC: 'President Hamid Karzai has hit out at Pakistan over continuing violence in Afghanistan, accusing it of trying to turn his countrymen into "slaves". Mr Karzai's comments are among his most strongly-worded yet in the spat between the neighbours over border attacks.' (BBC)

Iraqi security adviser to US: Don't pull out of Iraq. Hyscience:

How interesting that the Iraqi national security adviser, Mouwaffaq al-Rubaie, displays far more common sense and offers a much more reasonable strategy than our own Iraq "non-Study" Group report (remember - they never actually left the Green Zone), in saying that Iraq needs more "strategic patience" from Washington to defeat terrorist violence that threatens to swarm the region if the U.S. pulls out too soon.

Mouwaffaq al-Rubaie also asked Washington and regional leaders to back his plans to give general amnesty to insurgents and militias, but warned of more violence if Al Qaeda is able to gain more power in Iraq.

"If we don't act to contain Al Qaeda, the violence will spread like hell, not only to Saudi Arabia and the GCC (Gulf Arab) countries but to Syria, Iran and beyond," al-Rubaie told the International Institute of Strategic Studies conference in the Bahraini capital.

Sunni-Shiite sectarian killings could spread to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Pakistan and India, al-Rubaie warned, naming countries with large Shiite Muslim populations.

The Iraqi national security adviser also asked the United States be patient as Iraq tries to cope with undergoing a "paradigm shift of 1,000 years to a new order."

Full article at Fox News. (Fox via Hyscience)

Saudi Arabia to US: Don't pull out of Iraq. Do we detect a pattern here? Captain's Quarters: 'The Saudis have warned the United States against pulling out of Iraq, telling American officials that a retreat would set off a bloodbath. In fact, the Saudis feel so strongly about it that they told the US that an American withdrawal would prompt them to fund a sectarian arms race to protect the Sunni minority...' The New York Times article reports:

Saudi Arabia has told the Bush administration that it might provide financial backing to Iraqi Sunnis in any war against Iraq’s Shiites if the United States pulls its troops out of Iraq, according to American and Arab diplomats.

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia conveyed that message to Vice President Dick Cheney two weeks ago during Mr. Cheney’s whirlwind visit to Riyadh, the officials said. During the visit, King Abdullah also expressed strong opposition to diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran, and pushed for Washington to encourage the resumption of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians, senior Bush administration officials said.

Captain's Quarters comments: 'In one sense, it's difficult to take the Saudis seriously on this topic. Their own government has contributed to the spread of radical Islamism around the world, only of the Sunni variety, while the Shi'ite strain has taken the upper hand in Iraq's sectarian violence. ... However, the advice is correct in this case. The result of an American withdrawal would be catastrophe for the region. Either the surrounding nations would have to use the sectarian groups to fight proxy wars with each other or they would have to actually send troops into Iraq to stop the violence, perhaps all the way to Baghdad.' Read the full post at the link. Vital Perspective has more: 'Abdullah let it be known that he is unhappy with talk of American efforts to engage Iran. The Saudis and Iraqi Sunnis fear growing Iranian influence in Iraq which, when seen in the context of the Iranian nuclear program, is potentially disastrous in their eyes. A similar fear that the Iraqi army would be used against the Sunni population if Shiites gain control was recently expressed by Jordan's King Abdallah II.' (NYT via Captain's Quarters, VP)

"Why do you ask me these questions at five o'clock?" Because terrorists operate 24 hours a day, you moron. American Future cites The Times on Silvestre Reyes, Nancy Pelosi's nominee for the House committee on intelligence:

Silvestre Reyes, the Democrat chosen to head the House of Representatives committee, was asked whether members of al-Qaeda came from the Sunni or the Shia branch of Islam.

“Al-Qaeda, they have both,” he answered, adding: “Predominantly probably Shi’ite.”

In fact, al-Qaeda was founded by Osama bin Laden as a Sunni organisation and views Shia Muslims as heretics. The centuries-old now fuels the militias and death squads in Iraq.

Jeff Stein, a reporter for Congressional Quarterly, then put a similar question about Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia group. “Hezbollah. Uh, Hezbollah . . .” replied Mr Reyes. “Why do you ask me these questions at five o’clock? Can I answer in Spanish? Do you speak Spanish?” Go ahead, said Stein. “Well, I, uh . . .” said the congressman.

How absolutely pathetic. (Times via American Future)

Muslims against Ahmadinejad, Holocaust denial. From Sandmonkey, here's a appeal to righteous Muslims:

A collective statement by Muslim bloggers to the Iranian regime about its Holocaust denial conference

We the following Muslim bloggers hereby affirm that the Holocaust did happen because, not only are we quite capable of understanding overwhelming historical evidence, we also refuse to allow Muslim leaders to twist history for cruel, personal and selfish gains -- thereby reflecting negatively upon us and the message of Islam -- without confronting their actions with the hammer of righteous indignation. For religious, moral, and historical reasons, we repudiate and spit upon the Holocaust deniers conference now taking place in Iran, and stand in solidarity with student, and other, anti-fascists in that great nation, along with the victims of the Holocaust itself.
We further castigate Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as an egomaniacal sociopath and incompetent world leader who has embarrassed the reputation and spiritual world of Islam with his political falsifications and distortions. ...

Myrtus also links to AlKaritha - The Arab Institute for Holocaust Research & Education. Go check it out. (Myrtus via Sandmonkey)

Iraq: Six suspected terrorists detained, weapons cache found. MNF-Iraq: 'BAGHDAD, Iraq – Coalition Forces detained six suspected terrorists and seized a weapons cache Wednesday morning near Tikrit while seeking a terrorist associated with the al-Qaida in Iraq network.Intelligence reports also indicated the production of improvised explosive devices was also taking place in the targeted area.

When ground forces searched the targeted building, they discovered a weapons cache consisting of machine guns, pistols, rocket-propelled grenade boosters and a sniper rifle scope. Ground forces also found the equivalent of more than $200,000 in Iraqi Dinar along with more than $160,000 in U.S. currency.' (MNFI)

Realism from Amarji. Syria's heretic writes: 'Festering old wounds are always a good distraction from developing new ones. However, the real panacea here does not lie in treating the causes of one set of wounds at the expense of another, as so many experts end up recommending, but in tackling the real issues involved: the development and democracy gaps.' (Amarji)

Commentary. I'm going to turn today's commentary section over to Baron Bodissey at Gates of Vienna, with a pair of posts that express what I've been trying to say for a long time. On the moral case for supporting Free Muslims:

The “Free Muslims” really do exist; Stop the Project has a list of their organizations. They don’t get much publicity, because the MSM, in its tacit alliance with Islamofascism, prefers to focus on CAIR and similar organizations.

But these brave people put their lives on the line every day to speak out on behalf of non-violence and religious tolerance, while still remaining Muslims.

This morning I received an email from a friend of ours who has noticed the nuke-the-ragheads mentality which so often rears its head in Gates of Vienna comments:

A couple of your commenters have got Islam so deeply on the brain, they think the only good ay-rab is a dead ay-rab. People who can’t distinguish individuals from groups are by definition prejudiced.

And indeed they are.

In fact, what they are doing is arguing for the assignment of collective guilt. ...

Go read the rest as soon as you get the chance. Here's the practical side:

The recent election has confirmed that our little corner of the blogosphere — the members of the Counterjihad — will not be affecting public policy any time soon. ...

For at least two years — and more likely for a decade, after two Hillary administrations — what we advocate and strategize for will remain with us, the citizens of America and the free world, and not extend to the people who actually execute public policy on our behalf.

So I don’t want to hear any more prescriptions for public policy. Saying “We need to crack down on Saudi Arabia” or “It’s time we did something about the Salafists in Somalia” is pointless. None of it is going to happen.

When we talk like that, we’re spinning palaces out of gossamer, building castles out of airy nothing. We’re wasting our time. ...

But that doesn’t mean we’re powerless — far from it. It just means that the potential for action has devolved from our national political leaders to where it belongs: local government, civic organizations, and the people themselves.

Go read the rest to find out what you can do. This is an information war, a war of the mind and of the spirit, and we are all soldiers in it.

Night Flashes

Australian officials have reaffirmed their support for the United States and for victory in Iraq, with Foreign Affairs Minister Peter Downer and Defence Minister Brendan Nelson emerging from day-long talks with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice ... Downer declared, 'We stick by our mates through thick and thin, and when times are difficult for them' ... Germany and Israel showed strong ties as well, with Ehud Olmert and Angela Merkel stressing their common ground on the problem of the Iranian nuclear threat ... and the spirit of camaraderie has taken over in even the most unlikely places, as AEI discerns the emergence of a pro-American France: 'If the French continue their hard-line policy toward clerical Iran--and again, it is important to note that France’s approach within the context of the EU-3 negotiations merits the description “hard-line”--it could quite conceivably convulse the way France conducts its foreign policy everywhere. France’s “pro-American” Iran policy is a potentially landmark turn.' ....

Iran: IRI going broke, MEK getting funds.

Persian Journal:

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is to ask the Iranian parliament for a supplementary budget as his government's coffers will run empty three months before the end of the current Iranian fiscal year, the ISNA news agency reported on Monday.

"The budget allocated to the government will run out by the end of (the Iranian month of) Azar (December 22)," the agency quoted Ahmadinejad as saying.

"We are going to put forward a supplementary budget bill to cover the three remaining months (of the Iranian year, ending on March 20 2007) and the first two months of next year.

Also from Persian Journal:

Europe's second-highest court on Tuesday annulled an EU decision freezing the funds of an exiled Iranian opposition group that argues it was wrongly placed on the European Union's list of terrorist organizations.

The decision is likely to infuriate murderous mullahs but also ordinarny Iranians and may have wider implications for the EU's policy of banning alleged terrorist groups and freezing their assets.

MKO/MEK/NCRI/IRANFUCOS.COM and its many other phony names are "most hated" among ordinary Iranians.

EU member states ordered the freezing of funds of the People's Mujahideen (OMPI) in 2002. The armed wing of the France-based National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) has stated that it has renounced military activity since 2001.

The NCRI terrorists called the court decision "a great victory".

Jonathan Winer at Counterterrorism Blog has some thoughts on oversight:

This is a further sign of the growing effort to require judicial oversight of national security designations made by national governments in the area of economic sanctions against terrorism. In theory, the same justification could be given for requiring EU governments to prove that Al Qaeda is a threat to the EU and to give Osama bin Ladin and Al Qaeda the opportunity to be heard before their assets could be frozen,

When I was in the USG during the Clinton Administration, our recurrent nightmare in the use of economic sanctions was that a judge somewhere, someday, would decide that he or she had the independent right to review all of the facts we had used to make a national security designation of a particular group, to reach the judge's own decision of whether a designated entity was or wasn't a threat to the U.S.

It was my view then, and remains my view now, that to answer civil liberties concerns governments need to develop open source information to justify terrorist designations, and to place such a package of information in the public record each time a designation is made. Treasury-OFAC now often does this, although the accompanying public material tends to be very summary, and far less than that which might be needed in a judicial setting.

On the matter of MEK itself, Winer notes:

Besides having had an alliance with Saddam Hussein, the organization has or had ties with: Amal, the Kurdish Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), Al Fatah, and other Palestinian factions, and reportedly the Taliban.

Remarks. The group's name, Mojahedin-e-Khalq or "People's Mujahedeen", suggests its mix of Marxist and Islamist ideology. This is a classic example of "The enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend." Not every anti-regime group is pro-democracy.

Morning Report: December 12, 2006

Immovable object pushes back. Uppity women in Yemen speak out on a barbaric practice, and Iranian students jeer their fascist president. In other news, homophobia is state policy in Nigeria, Iraqi leaders speak out on a certain report, a spy case gets international attention, and Olmert breaks a taboo.

Crackdown on Nigerian gays. Gay Patriot: 'In Nigeria, outings have resulted in the gay community being terrified to have dinner with each other. And now the government is considering all forms of gays interacting with each other in Nigeria.' The draconian new laws would forbid not only sex but any form of dating or "amorous relationship". Story at the link. (Gay Patriot)

FGM, honor killings in Yemen. Armies of Liberation brings us a report on honor killings and female genital mutilation (the practice of so-called "female circumcision") in Yemen:

From behind her black burka in Sana’a, the capital of Yemen, Siham says she wants to talk about what happened to her to highlight the practice of female circumcision, which is still ritually performed in many areas of coastal Yemen and throughout the Middle East. Women’s rights groups estimate that up to 25 per cent of Yemeni women have been circumcised, with numbers likely to be sharply higher in tribal areas outside their reach and the realm of health officials.

For many women in Yemen, the procedure is performed shortly after birth - not with the sharp edge of a knife, but with salt or warm cloths pressed repeatedly against an infant girl’s underdeveloped organs during the first 40 days of her life.

“They do it to try and stop the clitoris from forming,” said Amal al-Basha, head of the most prominent women’s rights groups in the eastern Arabian state. “It is a procedure that is done for weeks and sometimes months.”

A women’s rights conference held in Cairo last month heard that 8000 girls a day fell victim to the ancient custom, which is aimed at maintaining a woman’s morality and loyalty by curbing her desire.

Full article at the link. (Armies of Liberation)

More on Iran demonstrations. Gateway Pundit has a comprehensive roundup with photos. MSNBC: 'Dozens of Iranian students burned pictures of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and threw firecrackers in an effort to disrupt his speech at a university on Monday, a presidential office spokesman said. It was the first time the president, elected in a landslide in June 2005, had faced such open hostility at a public event. But the spokesman said Ahmadinejad was not deterred and completed his address at Tehran’s Amir Kabir University.' One protester was photographed with a sign reading, "Fascist President, Polytechnic Is Not Your Place". Or Does It Explode: 'It takes more than guts to interrupt a speech by the Iranian president. No students at Harvard or St. Andrews University in Scotland dared to take such measures during Khatami's recent visits. But yesterday a bunch of students at Amir Kabir Technical University did just that. In fact, they not only shouted down Ahmadinejad, but also lit off a firecracker and burned his photo in protest.' Azarmehr: 'It was good that the protests against president Ahmadi-Nejad yesterday, got some worldwide publicity. In fact a Google news search showed more than 150 related articles. ...' Of the "Fascist President" photo, he says: 'Its not just that he is standing up to an intolerant and dangerous man; one has to remember that the majority of the attendants were pro-Ahmadi-Nejad baseeji students, shipped in from Imam Sadeq and Imam Hossein universities.' Iran Press Service: 'Hundreds of pro-reforms students burned pictures of hard line Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi Nezhad, booed him with chants of “Ahmadi Nezhad, symbol of discrimination and dictatorship” and threw firecrackers in an effort to disrupt his speech at a university on Monday, according to eyewitnesses and reports from several Iranian independent news agencies.' (various)

Iraqi leaders assail report. ThreatsWatch: 'While the Baker-Hamilton Commission report continues to be debated within the United States, recent days have seen almost universal rejection of the report’s recommendations from Iraqi leaders. Kurdish and Shi’a leaders have been especially critical, and even Shi’a figures with ties to Iran have stated that the report’s recommendation of direct U.S.-Iranian dialogue on Iraq should be postponed.' Full article by Kirk Sowell at the link. (ThreatsWatch)

Interpol on Litvinenko case. MSNBC: 'International police force Interpol is helping coordinate the investigation into the poisoning of Russian former spy Alexander Litvinenko that now involves forces in Germany, Russia and Britain. The head of Interpol’s Russian office said on Tuesday the 186 member-country force had been asked to improve the information flow between the three countries, which have launched their own probes into Litvinenko’s death on November 23.' (MSNBC)

Olmert takes flak for nuclear comment. Debka: 'Olmert breaks Israel’s nuclear silence in response to US defense secretary’s nuclear stance and Iran’s Holocaust denial conference. The Israeli prime minister made his surprising disclosure Monday, Dec. 11: “Israel doesn’t threaten any country,” he said. “Iran openly, explicitly and publicly threatens to wipe Israel off the map. Can you see this on the same level when you are aspiring to have a nuclear weapon like the US, France, Israel and Russia?” the Israeli PM asked in an interview with the German TV station N24 Sat1. This was the first Israeli official admission of the possession of nuclear weapons. DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Olmert decided on this step in response to US defense secretary Robert Gates’ listing of Israel as among the nuclear states surrounding Iran to explain Tehran’s search for a nuclear deterrent of its own. He was the first American official to confirm Israel had a nuclear weapon and did so without consulting Jerusalem. Olmert chose his journey to Germany, which coincided with the opening in Tehran of a conference negating the Holocaust, for his shock disclosure. This conference is taken in Israel as a vehicle for attacking Zionist legitimacy and so justifying Iran’s ambition to destroy the Jewish state. Olmert used the opportunity to remind Iran’s rulers that Israel possesses a large stock of nuclear weapons capable of not only smashing Iran’s nuclear facilities but also disabling its infrastructure.' Jerusalem Post: 'Defense Minister Amir Peretz made clear on Tuesday that there has been no change in Israel's nuclear ambiguity policy, Army Radio reported. Speaking to soldiers in the Shomron Brigade, Peretz said that "the prime minister made himself clear, and I definitely believe the policy remains the same. We continue the same policy and do our job the best we can. Let no one think we will remain aloof to world events around us."' Yedioth: 'MK Arieh Eldad (National Union-National Religious Party) requested that Attorney General Menachem Mazuz inspect whether Prime Minister Ehud Olmert broke the censorship law during his speech on a German television station, where he discussed Israel's nuclear ability.' Also: 'Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said in a meeting in Berlin with German Chancellor Angela Markel that Israel's stance on nuclear weapons remains unchanged, the country will not be first to introduce them to Middle East.' (various)

State Department Googles for Iran info. Persian Journal:

Some people may Google to locate lost loves, or check out potential new ones. The state department resorts to the internet search engine when it is trying to penetrate the clandestine world of international nuclear weapons proliferators.

A junior foreign service officer, employed at the state department for only a few months and who was given the task of investigating Iranians with possible links to the country's nuclear programme typed "Iran and nuclear" into his browser, the Washington Post reported today.

That's not all they're curious about. As reported earlier at Dreams Into Lightning, somebody at State is wondering "when will the us strike iran". Sorry, readers, but this site's policy remains unchanged: We're not telling. Wouldn't want to spoil the surprise. (Persian Journal, DiL)

Commentary. What stands out for me this morning is the persistence, almost like a law of nature, of those who speak out. People like Siham and Amal al-Basha, people like the Iranian student with the sign. Ahmadinejad doesn't seem to grasp this. He is determined to push Iran to its breaking point - but he may well be the one who ends up broken.

Pakistan: Islamists Rally for Anti-Woman Laws

Via Pooja at The Muslim Woman:

The all time controversial Women Protection Bill, which was signed into law last month under the regime of Musharraf has not been welcomed by thousands of Islamic people. They came out with a rally in Karachi to show their objection towards the bill.

Nearly, 10,000 supporters of the Islamist parties, chanted slogans of ‘Down with Musharraf’ and ‘Down with the Women Protection Law’ at the rally and demanded the government scrap the law.

The law takes the crime of rape out of the sphere of the religious laws, known as the Hudood Ordinances, and puts it under the penal code.

Under the Hudood Ordinances, a raped victim was only offered justice if she would be able to produce four male witness otherwise she would have to face the charges of treachery.

Morning Report: December 11, 2006

Curiouser and curiouser. Mixed signals from Syria, questions on the future of Iraq's leadership, and new clues surface on a spy mystery.

Syria expands Golan border presence. Debka: 'Israeli intelligence chief warns: Syria is expanding its long-range missile manufacture and anti-tank rocket deployment on Golan. DEBKAfile’s military sources quote two statements by Israeli generals Sunday, Dec. 10 to the Israeli cabinet: OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen Gadi Eisenkott denounced as irresponsible talk of a war with Syria and Hizballah in the summer of 2007. Brig. Gen Yossi Baidatz, military intelligence chief of research, reported that Syria had increased its production of long-range missiles (picture)and was building up its anti-tank rocket units on the Golan border with Israel. This information is not proof in itself of a Syrian intent to go to war. Gen. Eisenkott says he sees no tangible war preparations on the Golan and Hermon despite the aggressive rhetoric coming out of Damascus, whereas it is Brig Baidatz’s job to count the missiles coming off Syrian production lines in the northern city of Homs. The volume in Nov. 2006 was 20% greater than the output of Nov. 2005. ...' Ha'Aretz: 'The head of the research division of Military Intelligence, Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, said Sunday that Syrian President Bashar Assad is preparing for a war with Israel. He said that Assad has ordered increased production of long-range missiles and instructed the Syrian army to position its anti-tank missiles closer to the Syrian border with Israel, on the Golan Heights. But, Baidatz told the cabinet, while Assad is "preparing the Syrian army for the possibility of a military conflict with Israel, on the other hand, he is not ruling out the possibility of reaching a political settlement with Israel."' (Debka, Ha'Aretz)

Pakistani islamists rally against women's protection bill. The Muslim Woman: 'The all time controversial Women Protection Bill, which was signed into law last month under the regime of Musharraf has not been welcomed by thousands of Islamic people. They came out with a rally in Karachi to show their objection towards the bill. Nearly, 10,000 supporters of the Islamist parties, chanted slogans of ‘Down with Musharraf’ and ‘Down with the Women Protection Law’ at the rally and demanded the government scrap the law. The law takes the crime of rape out of the sphere of the religious laws, known as the Hudood Ordinances, and puts it under the penal code. Under the Hudood Ordinances, a raped victim was only offered justice if she would be able to produce four male witness otherwise she would have to face the charges of treachery.' (TMW)

Iraqi politicians talk of replacing Maliki. Fox News: 'BAGHDAD, Iraq — Major partners in Iraq's governing coalition are in behind-the-scenes talks to oust Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki amid discontent over his failure to quell raging violence, according to lawmakers involved. The talks are aimed at forming a new parliamentary bloc that would seek to replace the current government and that would likely exclude supporters of the radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who is a vehement opponent of the U.S. military presence. The new alliance would be led by senior Shiite politician Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, who met with President Bush last week. Al-Hakim, however, was not expected to be the next prime minister because he prefers the role of powerbroker, staying above the grinding day-to-day running of the country.' See also Scott Sullivan's analysis in the commentary section below. (Fox)

Radiation linked to Litvinenko contact. MSNBC: 'HAMBURG, Germany - German investigators have confirmed that a car used by a contact of fatally poisoned ex-spy Alexander Litvinenko before the two men met was contaminated with the rare radioactive substance polonium-210, police said Monday. Still unknown is whether Russian businessman Dmitry Kovtun was involved in the poisoning, or a victim of it. He is reportedly being treated in Moscow for radiation poisoning.' The Telegraph: 'Staff who were working at a hotel bar on the day ex-spy Alexander Litvinenko visited it have tested positive for low levels of the radioactive substance that killed him, it emerged today.' (MSNBC, Telegraph)

Iran student demo pictures. Azarmehr has photos. 'BBC Persian said the demonstrators numbered around 300. Judge for yourself!' (Azarmehr)

Commentary. You know the IRI regime is in bad shape when even Reuters via MSNBC reports on Iranian student protests. Two articles this morning suggest that Ahmadinejad's hold on power - both at home and abroad - may be increasingly tenuous. Scott Sullivan at Persian Journal sees a bleak outlook for the Iranian regime and its apologists in the US:

This perception of an emerging US-Iranian strategic partnership could not be farther from the truth, despite the pro-Iran atmospherics created by James Baker in Washington DC. ...

... for Iran to dominate US-Iran relations, Iran must prevail with its power plays in Iraq, Lebanon, and within the Bush Administration. The reality is that Iran will fall well short of its goals in all three areas.

In Iraq, Iran is seeking to topple the Maliki-Sadr government and put together a new government, under Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's SCIRI (favored by Baker, Rice, and Gates) that would exclude Muqtada al-Sadr (see International Herald Tribune, 10 December 06). An SCIRI government in Iraq is not going to happen. Muqtada and his political party are too popular to be excluded altogether from national politics. Moreover, Hakim would be forced to rely on the Kurdish parties for this new government, which would command only a narrow base in Iraqi politics and would exclude all the major Sunni groups as well as al-Sadr. To put it another way, a SCIRI-Kurdish government will have a short life in the event it is ever established, which is against the odds. An SCIRI defeat in Iraq, as with a Hezbollah defeat in Lebanon, would represent an acute embarrassment for Iran and would substantially diminish Iran's diplomatic clout in the region and in bilateral relations with the US.

In Lebanon, the Hezbollah party, backed by Iran, faces growing internal and international resistance to its power grab. Most recently, Saudi Arabia and China are putting markers down against Hezbollah unilateralism. This means Hezbollah will have to learn the art of compromise with other parties if it, along with its Iranian sponsors, is to remain a viable force in Lebanon's politics.

In the US, James Baker is also falling short in his efforts to turn US policy decisively in a pro-Iran direction by means of his report on Iraq. ...

Amir Taheri writes in Arab News:

The first election will be for local government authorities throughout Iran, deciding the fate of thousands of village and town councils that provide the day-to-day interface of the Khomeinist regime with citizens.

At present, the various radical Khomeinist factions that supported Ahmadinejad in the last presidential election control only a third of all local government authorities. The more conservative and business-connected factions, led by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani, control a further 25 percent while the rest have majorities of independents and/or regional groupings that are always open to new alliances.

Ahmadinejad had hoped to win a majority of the local government authorities for two reasons. First, he counted on a low turnout that always favors the more radical Khomeinist candidates. Four years ago, Ahmadinejad won control of the Tehran Municipal Council, the largest local government in Iran, and became mayor of the capital, in an election that attracted only 15 percent of the qualified voters.

The second reason that Ahmadinejad had in mind was the possibility of forging a broad alliance of all radical revolutionary factions while the more conservative groups led by Rafsanjani and former Majlis Speaker Ayatollah Mahdi Karrubi appeared unable to unite.

With just days before polling, however, both of Ahmadinejad's calculations appear in doubt. The conservative and moderate groups have abandoned an earlier strategy to boycott the election and presented lists of candidates in more than half of the constituencies. The opposition groups acting outside the regime have also toned down their calls for boycott. Thus, the turnout may be higher than Ahmadinejad had hoped. A higher turnout could mean more middle class voters going to the polls to counterbalance the peasants and the urban poor who constitute the president's electoral base.

Taheri explains that

The two sets of elections are important not because they reflect the true wishes of the Iranian people. Elections in the Islamic republic are more like primaries within the same party in the United States. Also, since all election results could eventually be cancelled by the Council of the Guardians or the "Supreme Guide", the possibility of genuine opposition figures coming to power through elections is almost nil.

Nevertheless, elections in the Islamic republic must be treated as important for two reasons. The first is that they provide a more or les accurate picture of the relative strength of the various rival factions within the regime, thus providing an insight into the current mood of he ruling elite. The second is that the "Supreme Guide" and his security services could arrange every election in a way to reflect the new mood and open the way for policy changes.

Sullivan concludes that 'Iran is overestimating its position in Iraq, Lebanon, and the US. As a result, Iran is overestimating its ability to force concessions from the US and US allies. Instead, Iran could soon find itself bogged down with problems in both Iraq and Lebanon and vulnerable to pressure from the US.' 'A setback for Ahmadinejad in the two elections,' says Taheri, '...would provide a warning to Ahmadinejad not to become too big for his boots, either at home or abroad. It would be interesting to see how Ahmadinejad and his radical base might respond to their first major setback at a crucial time.'

Morning Report: December 10, 2006

Fog. The Report Which Shall Not Be Named gets a bad review in Baghdad; the Dark Lord needs to get his minions moving in a hurry; and the fog of something or other seems to hang over much of the West. But the view from London is crystal clear.

Talabani blasts Baker-Hamilton. MSNBC: 'BAGHDAD, Iraq - The Iraqi president said Sunday the bipartisan U.S. report calling for a new approach to the war offered dangerous recommendations that would undermine his country’s sovereignty and were “an insult to the people of Iraq.” President Jalal Talabani was the most senior government official to take a stand against the Iraq Study Group report, which has come under criticism from leaders of the governing Shiite and Kurdish parties. He said the report “is not fair, is not just, and it contains some very dangerous articles which undermine the sovereignty of Iraq and the constitution.”' Jerusalem Post: 'He singled out the report's call for the approval of a de-Baathification law that could allow thousands of officials from Saddam Hussein's ousted party to return to their jobs. "There is an article to bring back the Baathists to the political scene, which is very dangerous," he said in an interview with reporters at his office in Baghdad.' Debka: 'Iraq’s Kurdish president Jalal Talabani rejects Baker-Hamilton report as undermining the country's sovereignty and constitution. It contains dangerous articles that are an insult to the Iraqi people, he told reporters in Baghdad Sunday, Dec. 10. He referred to the Iraq Study Group’s recommendation of more centralized control of Iraq’s oil wealth and embedding thousands of US advisers in Iraq’s security forces as reflecting the mentality that Iraq is a colony. The solution to Iraq’s problems, said Talabani, lay in giving Iraq control of its own security. There is no security now because the prime minister cannot move 10 soldiers from one place to another (without US authorization). He also objected to including former regime members in reconciliation talks.' (various)

Hezbollah rally in Lebanon. Stratfor: 'Tensions remained extremely high in Beirut, Lebanon, on Dec. 10 as massive demonstrations against the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora entered their 10th day amid heavy security. Sources said hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah supporters were pouring into the streets, waving yellow Hezbollah flags as well as red and white Lebanese flags. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has called for a general strike Dec. 11.' Arutz Sheva:

A mammoth Sunday rally in support of the Hizbullah terrorist party and its pro-Syrian allies has prompted Pope Benedict to issue a call for peace Sunday amid growing fears of a civil war in Lebanon.

The pro-Syrian elements have been staging daily rallies for more than week, choking downtown Beirut in an attempt to topple the anti-Syrian government. Army combat jeeps and thousands of soldiers have surrounded the government offices to protect the Prime Minister and other officials. An anti-government newspaper has warned that the protests will be followed by national strikes and civil disobedience if the government does not surrender to demands by Hizbullah and its allies.

Abu Kais at Michael J. Totten's Middle East Journal:

The Assad regime is in a hurry. Nasrallah hasn’t been able to deliver quickly enough. The Grand Serail is a fortress, and the Lebanese street is slowly turning against the protestors, who don’t even have safe passage back to their homes now. The orders from the Dark Lord’s council are to pack more people in downtown Beirut, and as soon as possible. The plan to occupy or lay siege to the Rafik Hariri International airport seems to be in full swing, although the Lebanese army will reportedly not allow it.

What’s the hurry for? ...

Read the rest at the link. (Stratfor, A7, MJT)

Brain fog. Far more pernicious than the fog of war, Wretchard argues at the Belmont Club, 'Some kind of brain fog has descended upon Western Civilization, a species of madness or abstraction that makes victory against the enemy impossible, not simply because victory is inconceivable, but the very concept of an enemy or warfare has become unthinkable to the postmodern bureaucratic mind. It is the very thought of fighting a foe -- fighting under any circumstances, however justified -- that has become the ultimate taboo. War has been banished, not from reality, but from the list of allowable thoughts.' (Belmont Club)

Iran regime steps up nuclear operations. Arutz Sheva: 'Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Saturday that Iran has expanded production of its national uranium enrichment program by adding 3,000centrifuges at a facility in the center of the country. Uranium enrichment has been banned by the UN Security Council, but its permanent members plus Germany are stalled in their efforts to agree on a sanctions resolution.' Debka: 'The Iranian president is quoted as saying Saturday that expanded production of the national uranium enrichment program by adding centrifuges is the first step towards industrial production. Uranium enrichment has been banned by the UN Security Council, but its permanent members plus Germany are stalled in their efforts to agree on a sanctions resolution.' (A7, Debka)

Iraqi security force takes lead in raids. Multinational Force Iraq:

Iraqi Security Forces and Coalition advisors confiscated weapons and detained suspects in a series of events here this week.

Saturday, Iraqi Soldiers and Coalition advisors detained five suspected terrorists. They also confiscated a weapons cache and stockpile of al Qaeda in Iraq propaganda near Mahmudiyah.

Based on intelligence from previous operations, Iraqi Soldiers from 2nd Battalion, 4th Brigade, 6th Iraqi Army Division, with advisors from Battery A, 2nd Battalion, 15th Field Artillery Regiment., 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, conducted a raid on a small building complex, targeting an improvised explosive device cell, believed to be responsible for several attacks against Iraqi Security and Coalition Forces.

Iraqi Soldiers raided the objective, detained two individuals and observed three others attempting to escape. The Soldiers pinpointed and detained the three men in a canal.

The troops found two AK-47 assault rifles, a mortar cleaning kit, a shotgun and a mortar explosive charge following a search. They also found al Qaeda propaganda and a series of documents indicating future attacks.

In the al Doura neighborhood, 1st Battalion 6th Brigade Iraqi National Police and Coalition Forces seized several weapons caches during an early-morning operation Friday.

The joint operation was conducted based on tips from residents of the neighborhood, leading the police and troops to weapons caches in homes and the al Hassanae’en Mosque. ...

Full article at the link, and don't forget to bookmark the homepage. (MNF-Iraq)

Sandmonkey on Gaza exodus. Egyptian Sandmonkey: 'he Palestinians are leaving Gaza. Not because of Israel, or because of the shelling or the occupation, but because of their fear of a civil war between Hamas and Fatah. ... This is bad because the solution to Gaza ( and the palestinian Israeli conflict), in my opinion, has always been that the more educated more well-off Palestinians who live abroad would come back and invest in the little strip. If a large enough number of them came back, they would change many factors in the equation: Improve economic conditions, provide different voices and opinions of moderation, help raise the educational level in Gaza. Hell, maybe even change the culture of Death that Hamas imposed on the palestinian society over there. But that never happened, partly because of the high level of corruption exhibited in the PA, partly because of the never ending confict drama between the palestinian factions and Israel and partly because the palestinians who live aborad don't want to abandon their cozy lives and move back to freakin Gaza. The supreme majoirty of palestinians I have met who lived abroad (Here in Egypt, US, Europe) would never go back.' (Sandmonkey)

Arash Sigarchi needs help. It's not a nice world out there. If you're wondering what you can do to make a difference, The Spirit of Man has a suggestion: the fund for Arash Sigarchi.

Mr. Sigarchi is now serving jail time for bogus charges such as insulting the leader of the regime and espionage for the United States... etc. His charges are laughable and he doesn't deserve this situation at all.

He also lost his brother in a car accident last year while serving his 14 yr long jail time. His brother died in a terrible accident enroute to prison where Arash was being held. ...

As if he didn't have enough problems, Arash has been diagnosed with cancer. Go to The Spirit of Man to find out more, and please consider using that PayPal link (funds register in Canadian Dollars). Every bit helps. (TSOM)

Commentary. Warfare in the early twenty-first century is indeed proving to be a very different creature from its twentieth-century counterpart, and perhaps some people may be forgiven for failing to recognize war for what it is. What's inexcusable, though, is the abandonment of the highest values that the West holds dear.

Via daddicade in LiveJournal-land, here is the full text of British Prime Minister Tony Blair's speech on multiculturalism at the Telegraph. It is magnificent.

We should begin by celebrating something. When we won the Olympic Bid to host the 2012 Games, we presented a compelling, modern vision of Britain: a country at ease with different races, religions and cultures. This was not the stuffy old Britain that used to be sent up in the comedy sketches of the 1970s but a nation proud, willing and able to go out and compete on its merits.

Right away, the PM begins on a positive note: "We should begin by celebrating something." But celebrate what?

The ethos of this country is completely different from thirty years ago. The courts recognise racial offences in a way that was inconceivable then. We have the most comprehensive panoply of anti-discrimination legislation in the world. We have tough laws outlawing discrimination on the grounds of sexual orientation, religion, race, gender and disability. The Human Rights Act provides basic protection to ethnic minorities and lays down some minimum standards. It is a matter of some pride to me that it has only been Labour governments that have introduced anti-discrimination legislation.

Our public culture is also completely different. We now have more ethnic minority MPs, peers, and Ministers though not enough. We have had the first black Cabinet minister. The media are generally more sensitive, and include ethnic minority reporters and columnists. Racism has, for the most part, been kicked out of sport. Offensive remarks and stupid stereotypes have been driven out of public conversation. The basic courtesies, in other words, have been extended to all people.

It is this progress - a triumph of liberalism at its best - that Mr. Blair calls upon his countrymen and -women to celebrate. In the words of the much-maligned slogan: Celebrate diversity.

Trevor Philips said recently that Britain was by far the best place to live in Europe, if you are not white. Others might dispute that; but it was interesting he could say it so confidently. Recently, MORI updated a poll they have run over many years, about attitudes to race and ethnicity. Only 25 per cent of Brits say they would prefer to live in an all-white area. In some European countries it's over 40 per cent. Only 12 per cent of whites would mind if a close relative married a black or Asian person; those who would not mind were over 50 per cent. Just five years ago the figures were 33 per cent minding and just 22 per cent not minding.

It didn't happen easily. Most of us grew up in an era when action against discrimination was condemned as political correctness. But from Roy Jenkins seminal and brave speech in 1966 to the National Committee for Commonwealth Immigrants onwards, fair-minded people brought about the change we can justifiably celebrate in 2006.

Notice the rhetorical twist here, where Blair links the buzzword "political correctness" to the positive changes that have happened in Britain - thereby robbing the PC slur of its sting.

The day after we won the Olympic bid came the terrorist attacks in London. These murders were carried out by British-born suicide bombers who had lived and been brought up in this country, who had received all its many advantages and yet who ultimately took their own lives and the lives of the wholly innocent, in the name of an ideology alien to everything this country stands for. Everything the Olympic bid symbolised was everything they hated. Their emphasis was not on shared values but separate ones, values based on a warped distortion of the faith of Islam.

This ideology is not, of course, confined to Britain. It is a global phenomenon, long in the making and taking a long time to unmake.

However, it has thrown into sharp relief, the nature of what we have called, with approval, "multicultural Britain". We like our diversity. But how do we react when that "difference" leads to separation and alienation from the values that define what we hold in common? For the first time in a generation there is an unease, an anxiety, even at points a resentment that our very openness, our willingness to welcome difference, our pride in being home to many cultures, is being used against us; abused, indeed, in order to harm us.

Here the Prime Minister gets to the heart of the problem. Using the words "multicultural" and "diversity" without irony or apology, he asks: 'But how do we react when that "difference" leads to separation and alienation from the values that define what we hold in common? ' That's the central question. Here's how Blair answers it:

I always thought after 7/7 our first reaction would be very British: we stick together; but that our second reaction, in time, would also be very British: we're not going to be taken for a ride.

People want to make sense of two emotions: our recognition of what we legitimately hold in common and what we legitimately hold distinct. When I decided to make this speech about multiculturalism and integration, some people entirely reasonably said that integration or lack of it was not the problem. The 7/7 bombers were integrated at one level in terms of lifestyle and work. Others in many communities live lives very much separate and set in their own community and own culture, but are no threat to anyone.

But this is, in truth, not what I mean when I talk of integration. Integration, in this context, is not about culture or lifestyle. It is about values. It is about integrating at the point of shared, common unifying British values. It isn't about what defines us as people, but as citizens, the rights and duties that go with being a member of our society.

Christians, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs and other faiths have a perfect right to their own identity and religion, to practice their faith and to conform to their culture. This is what multicultural, multi-faith Britain is about. That is what is legitimately distinctive.

But when it comes to our essential values - belief in democracy, the rule of law, tolerance, equal treatment for all, respect for this country and its shared heritage - then that is where we come together, it is what we hold in common; it is what gives us the right to call ourselves British. At that point no distinctive culture or religion supercedes our duty to be part of an integrated United Kingdom.

Go read the full text of Blair's speech on multiculturalism at the link. I'd like to say more about it, but here I'll just say this: Blair has done what Bush could not, by framing the present conflict not in terms of conservatism but in terms of liberalism. I'll end with the much-misquoted final words of this speech:

Our tolerance is part of what makes Britain, Britain. So conform to it; or don't come here. We don't want the hate-mongers, whatever their race, religion or creed. If you come here lawfully, we welcome you. If you are permitted to stay here permanently, you become an equal member of our community and become one of us. Then you, and all of us, who want to, can worship God in our own way, take pride in our different cultures after our own fashion, respect our distinctive histories according to our own traditions; but do so within a shared space of shared values in which we take no less pride and show no less respect.

The right to be different. The duty to integrate. That is what being British means. And neither racists nor extremists should be allowed to destroy it.

Morning Report: December 8, 2006

Baker-Hamilton-free zone. Bush says no to jaw-jaw with the islamist entity, security improves in southern Iraq, terrorist emirs are captured, and the dangers of "realism" are discussed.

Jeane Kirkpatrick dies. MSNBC: 'Former U.N. Ambassador Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, a one-time Democrat who switched to the Republican Party and warmly embraced Reagan era conservatism, has died. She was 80.' IRIS: 'Former U.N. Ambassador Jeane J. Kirkpatrick has passed away, a servant of her nation who honored it with her courage and moral clarity.' (MSNBC, IRIS)

Bush: No Iran talks. ThreatsWatch: 'Stating that there is a way for Iran to begin engaging the United States diplomatically, the President reaffirmed “that if they would like to engage the United States, that they’ve got to verifiably suspend their enrichment program.” Iran is currently engaging the United States and Britain militarily through its Iraqi proxies, Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigades.' Bush rejected calls by various parties for direct talks with the regime. ... Hinting at preconditions beyond the nuclear issue, President Bush said plainly, “If they want to sit down at the table with the United States, it’s easy. Just make some decisions that’ll lead to peace, not to conflict.” The US administration’s position was summed up concisely adding, “And if people are not committed, if Syria and Iran is not committed to that concept, then they shouldn’t bother to show up.” A group of British Parliament ministers also spoke against talks with Iran. Lord Corbett, the chairman of the British Parliamentary Committee for Iran Freedom, employed an even greater economy of words. Regarding the called-for Iran talks, he said, “The golden rule is… don’t talk to terrorists.”' Full article at the link. (ThreatsWatch)

Bush's remarks on Iran. Iran Focus: 'PRESIDENT BUSH: The increase in sectarian attacks we're seeing in and around Baghdad are unsettling. It has led to much debate in both our countries about the nature of the war that is taking place in Iraq. And it is true that Sunni and Shia extremists are targeting each other's innocent civilians and engaging in brutal reprisals. It's also true that forces beyond Iraq's borders contribute to this violence. And the Prime Minister put it this way, he said, "The violence is not an accident or a result of faulty planning. It is a deliberate strategy. It is the direct result of outside extremists teaming up with internal extremists -- al Qaeda with the Sunni insurgents, and Iran with the Shia militia -- to foment hatred and to throttle, at birth, the possibility of a non-sectarian democracy." You were right, and I appreciate your comments. The primary victims of the sectarian violence are the moderate majority of Iraqis -- Sunni and Shia alike -- who want a future of peace. The primary beneficiaries are Sunni and Shia extremists, inside and outside of Iraq, who want chaos in that country so they can take control and further their ambitions to dominate the region.' (Iran Focus)

Basra security improving. Gateway Pundit cites Haider Ajina in a post on security in southern Iraq:

The following is Iraqi-American Haider Ajina's translation of a headline and article, which appeared in Iraq's Buratha News agency December 7, 2006:

"Basra’s security is consistently improving"

Major General Ali Hamadi chairman of the tri-security agencies in Basra said today that the security situation in Basra has improved and is consistently improving. Operation Sinbad, for security and reconstruction, has achieved important results.

Hamadi added in a press conference he held today at Basra police head quarters, "Operation Sinbad has bore important fruit, for example the arrest of 1502 suspects, we were able to replace the British units in the tenth and eleventh phase of the operation. This will shrink the role of the British forces to that of support only.

Haider Ajina comments:

... Basra, Iraq’s second largest city, is moving on with its three month old Operation Sinbad, and methodically executing its eighteen phases.

It appears from last week’s news that Basra is calming down and has minimal sectarian strife. The Sadamists and Alqaida have not been able to create in Basra the strife they are creating in Baghdad. The three main Sunni groups have broken rank with their Ramadi and Baghdad colleagues and are joining with their Shiite brethren to keep Basra secure. The Basra Sunni leaders were the first to condemn attacks on Shiite shrines and Shiites, and they are continually calling for the stopping the spilling of Iraqi blood. These calls appear to be listened to in Basra. Most of the south of Iraq is a good example of what Iraqis working together can do. This is very similar the Baghdad I grew up in the 60s and 70s.

Much more at the post. Many thanks to Gateway Pundit for his diligent work in keeping us updated on the Iraq situation. (Gateway Pundit)

Terrorist emirs from Ansar al-Sunna captured, al-Qaeda in Iraq has "nowhere to turn". Multi-National Force Iraq (via Iraq the Model):

BAGHDAD, Iraq – On Wednesday, the Government of Iraq released the names and photos of several suspected senior-level Ansar al Sunna emirs who were captured by Coalition Forces during a series of raids in mid-November.

The AAS network is responsible for improvised explosive device attacks and suicide attacks on Iraqi government, Coalition Forces and Iraqi civilians. The AAS network is also responsible for multiple kidnappings, small arms attacks and other crimes in the central and northern part of Iraq.

One terrorist emir, Abu Mohammed aka Ismail, AAS Emir of Yusifiyah was killed during a raid late November.

The suspected Ansar al Sunna emirs who were captured are:

National level

- Ramadan Muhammad Salih Ahmad ((Bilbas)) aka Abu Mustafa, AAS Emir of Iraq. Abu Mustafa is a founding member of AAS.
- Taha Ahmad Pir-Dawud Ahmad ((Surchi)), aka Hajji Sa’id, Senior AAS representative and al-Qaida facilitator.
- ‘Adnan ‘Abdallah ‘Alaywi Muhammad ((al-‘Ithawi)), aka Abu Jaffar, AAS Secretary. He was Abu Mustafa’s personal assistant and he was responsible for arranging AAS senior-level meetings.

Regional level

- Hatim Abd-al-Ghafar Muslim Muhammad ((al Shimar)), aka Abu Taha, AAS Emir of Al Qa’im and Western al Anbar. He allegedly was a Colonel in the Iraqi Army before the war.
- ‘Abd-al-Basit ‘Abd-al-Razzaq Hasan ‘Ali ((al-‘Abbasi)), aka Abu Asim, AAS Emir of Tikrit.
- ‘Ali Hasayn ‘Ali “Abdallah ((Zandi)), aka Abu Bandar, AAS Emir of Baqubah.
- Amjad ‘Abd-al-Sattar Muhammad ‘Ali ((al-Ta’i)), aka Abu Najila, AAS Emir of Ramadi and Eastern al Anbar.
- Sa’id Jasim Muhammad Khudayyir al-Jadid ((al-Juwaynat)), aka Abu Sayf, AAS Emir of Bayji.
- Husayn Khudayyir ‘Abbas Majid ((al-Zubaydi)), aka Abu Husayn, AAS Emir of Bazayiz.
- Salih Khudayyir Salman Jadi ((al-Juburi)), aka Sajad, AAS Emir of Fallujah.

Omar at ITM comments: 'By the way, this is the same terror group that's been threatening to murder university students and teachers in Baghdad if the latter refuse to suspend study; perhaps the arrests and their locations explain why the threat was addressing students and teachers in Baghdad alone and not any other city.' (MNF-Iraq, ITM)

Student demonstration at Tehran University. Free Iran news forum has a thread on the recent student demonstrations in Iran. Site administrator Cyrus notes: 'Please be aware some of the protests might be allowed by regime as a trap.' (Free Iran)

Is it worse for the Jews? A lively and interesting thread at the always-worthwhile ProSemite Undercover. The original post cites Kenneth Levin at FrontPage Magazine, who traces the link between "Realpolitik" and genocide from Ba'athist Iraq (during the George H. W. Bush administration) to the present day. The poster comments: 'I have feared for a while that the mess in Iraq was going to lead to Jews being thrown under the bus as an appeasment strategy. That seems to be what is happening now. It is a dark day indeed.' Another commenter writes: 'Bush has destabilized the Middle East and made things much more volatile, no matter how happy Ohlmert might be that Saddam Hussein is gone. There's a growing appreciation that Bush's Iraq war has been a failure and a distraction from the real threat to peace in the region, which is Iran. And suddenly the philosophy of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" may bear fruit for Israel.' (PSU)

Commentary. The Israel supporters at ProSemite Undercover may have opposed the Iraq war, but likely for an entirely different set of reasons than the moonbats we're used to seeing at anti-war demonstrations. The arguments that "Iraq was going to lead to [Israel] being thrown under the bus as an appeasement strategy" and "[the Iraq war is] a distraction from the real threat to peace in the region, which is Iran" are compelling. While I did and do support the war in Iraq, I would disagree with these people only in matters of detail. Without a comprehensive Middle East vision that includes a secure Israel and a free, democratic, and peaceful Iran, victory in Iraq will be meaningless and impossible.

Morning Report: December 7, 2006

Dictators and the politicians who love them. Thousands of Iranian students demonstrate against dictatorship, while an Iraqi ambassador defends the US and Afghans say life is getting better. India gets missile defenses, and a rocket attack brings death sentences. Oh, and some guys in Washington wrote some kind of Iraq report thingy.

Fernandez on Baker's small stick. Richard Fernandez at Pajamas Media has an analysis of the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group report. Fernandez critiques the report's overly broad and ambitious scope: 'There are two obvious problems with this approach. First is that Iraqi diplomatic success becomes dependent on the contingent. How can the ISG group have any reasonable expectation of promising the Iraqi International Support Group a lasting Israeli-Palestinian peace? Waiting to spend a check that’s been in the mail for decades is testimony to optimism, perhaps more optimism than Iraq has been allowed. Second, and of more concern, is that a regional forum runs the risk of regionalizing the national conflicts in Iraq. Each party, Turkey, the Gulf States, Iran and Syria, will seek to maximize its interests within the new framework the ISG wants to establish.' Full article at the link, and it's well worth reading. (PJM)

IFTC on ISG: The old is new again. Spook86 at In From the Cold comments on the Iraq Study Group report:

Thanks to a wave of pre-release media leaks and public statements by group members, there's really nothing in the report (and its recommendations) that we haven't heard before.

In fact, key portions of the security strategy are nothing more than existing policies--on an accelerated timetable. Consider these four "main" military missions for U.S. and Iraqi forces, as outlined in the ISG report; they are essentially the same tasks our armed forces have been performing since the overthrow of Saddam's government in 2003.

Provide political reassurance to the Iraqi government in order to avoid its collapse and prevent disintegration of the country.
Fight Al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations in Iraq
Train, equip and support Iraqi security forces
Deter even more destructive interference in Iraq by Syria and Iran.

Spook is concerned with the reports lack of interest in taking the fight to the enemy, and its insistence on an "arbitrary, accelerated deadline". The post concludes that 'Mr. Baker, Mr. Hamilton and other members of the group are focused on the short-term, outlining their "New Diplomatic Offensive" as the centerpiece of their strategy, and emphasizing engagment of our regional foes. It's a classicly American, "bipartisan," bureaucratic "solution" for complex issues that require vision, fortitude, and patience.' Read the whole thing at the link. (IFTC)

Walid Phares: "Iraqization is right, but surrendering to fascist regimes is wrong."

Walid Phares at Counterterrorism Blog: 'Phares told Al Muharer al Arabi that the global recommendation "to engage Iran and Syria's regimes positively and constructively means that they were mistreated before. My first question to the authors of the report is this: how was the United States mistreating these regimes in the past? Was asking Ahmedinejad to stop making a nuclear bomb and asking Assad of Syria to withdraw from Lebanon following a UN resolution signs of bad treatment? Were these demands wrong in their essence? Do they give Iran and Syria the right to feel victimized? If one perceives US action in this way, then all what Washington has to do is to release pressure on the Mullah to build their weapons and ask Assad to send his Army back to Lebanon." Phares added, "the public in America and the people in the region are not as naive as they were before 9/11. They will ask the hard questions when the time comes. The so-called engagement recommendation is a relic from the past and sounds like a suicidal idea. For surrendering to fascist regimes - regimes that are rejected by their own people - is utterly wrong." However on the Iraq restructuring suggestions, Phares told Radio Iraq and other radio shows that "the idea of the Iraqization process is a right one and has always received a consensus among Iraqis and Americans. General Abizaid and many others have voiced these suggestions in the past in the US and in Iraq."' (CTB)

Iranians: "Death to dictators!" While we're waiting for CNN and the New York Times to pounce on this story (and Morning Report suspects we may be waiting for some time), here's Or Does It Explode on the latest student demonstrations in Iran: 'The protest yesterday at Tehran University was apparently announced in advance by the national student union, Tahkim Vahdat. One blog carried live updates on the protest and noted that despite riot police present to make arrests, students reportedly broke open the gates to enter the campus. Gooya News also covered the protests (scroll down for photos). The protest followed a similar rally the day before at Sahand University in Tabriz, and smaller rallies were held on campuses across Iran. 4,000 students marched in Tehran. "Death to Dictators" was chanted by some. One speaker declared to the crowd: "Our struggle is fighting against internal oppression and outside imperialist threats."' (ODIE)

Iraqi ambassador defends US, attacks IRI. ThreatsWatch: 'Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki blamed the presence of US troops for Iraq’s current instability and for creating a security problem for Iran and the entire region. That’s when the Iraqi Ambassador to the Netherlands [Siamand Banaa] rose and challenged his “hypocrisy” and reminded him that the removal of Saddam Hussein “has been, I think, a great advance for you.” ' Fox News carries a report on the incident. (TW, Fox)

Things that suck. The Spirit of Man links US Army Sergeant T. F. Boggs: 'The Iraq Survey Group’s findings or rather, recommendations are a joke and could have only come from a group of old people who have been stuck in Washington for too long. The brainpower of the ISG has come up with a new direction for our country and that includes negotiating with countries whose people chant “Death to America” and whose leaders deny the Holocaust and call for Israel to be wiped from the face of the earth. Baker and Hamilton want us to get terrorists supporting countries involved in fighting terrorism! If I am the only one who finds something wrong with that then please let me know because right now I feel like I am the only person who feels this way. ... One of the main recommendations of the ISG is to send more troops to Iraq in order to train Iraqis so they can secure their own country, but they don’t feel that we are doing a good job of that right now because training Iraqis isn’t an attractive job for soldiers to do because it isn’t a “career advancing” job. As someone who trained Iraqis from time to time I take personal offense to this remark. In my experience soldiers clamored for the chance to train Iraqis. ...Talking doesn’t solve anything with a crazed people, bullets do and we need to be given a chance to work our military magic. Like I told a reporter buddy of mine: War sucks but a world run by Islamofacists sucks more.' (T.F. Boggs via TSOM)

Breaking: Israel won't pull out of Golan. Stratfor (subscription) reports: 'Israel will not withdraw from the Golan Heights, and U.S. President George W. Bush does not want Israel to withdraw either, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Dec. 7 in response to the Dec. 6 release of the report by the Iraq Study Group (ISG). One of the ISG's recommendations was to persuade Israel to return the Golan Heights to Syria.' (Stratfor)

Indo-Israeli anti-missile system. Strategy Page: 'December 7, 2006: Israel has sold India anti-ballistic missile radars. This equipment was used last month in a successful Indian test, where one ballistic missile was fired at another, incoming, one. The technology in question is from the Israeli Green Pine radar, which was originally developed for Israel's Arrow anti-ballistic missile system. Arrow was built, in cooperation with the United States, to defend Israel from Iranian and Syrian ballistic missiles. Now, this Israeli technology will help protect India from Pakistani missiles.' (Strategy Page)

Afghans: Life better post-Taliban. Telegraph: 'Despite fears of rising violence, three quarters of Afghans believe their quality of life has improved since the fall of the Taliban, according to a new poll. Violence continues to play a prominent role in the daily lives of Afghans, with four in 10 reporting experiencing insurgent attacks, including bombings, arson, and killings, in their areas. The poll, which comes on the fifth anniversary of the invasion of the country by coalition forces, found that confidence in the current security situation was deteriorating, with the number of Afghans saying security was better now than under the Taliban dropping to 58 per cent from 75 per cent last year. However, overall there still seems to be broad backing for the coalition's action to depose the former regime. Across the country 70 per cent say they are "grateful" rather than "unhappy" with the presence of Nato troops in the country.' (Telegraph)

Four get death sentences for attack on US ships. MSNBC: 'AMMAN, Jordan - A Jordanian military court on Thursday sentenced three Syrians and one Iraqi to death for firing rockets at two U.S. warships in August 2005. One of the Syrians, Mohammed Hassan Abdullah al-Sihly, is in police custody, but the other two Syrians, Abdul-Rahman al-Sihly and Abdullah al-Sihly, and the Iraqi, Amar al-Samera’i, remain at large and were tried in absentia.' (MSNBC)

Commentary. Today's big story is the release of the Baker-Hamilton report; which is to say, it's a slow news day. Stratfor's analysis (subscription) argues that the report "symbolizes a plan -- even if it isn't one". Fredrick Kagan at The Standard reiterates other commentators' assesment that the report offers little in the way of original ideas, and seems to want to talk about every problem in the Middle East except Iraq.

The report basically punts on the most important issue of the day--establishing security in Iraq. All of the pious exhortations to get Iraqis to sit down with one another, to engage Iran and Syria and to find political compromises are meaningless if we are unable to stem the tide of bloodshed that now engulfs much of Baghdad and Anbar province.

Yet the Baker Report devotes scant space (8 pages out of 56 in the proposals section) to the security problem and its recommendations are unoriginal: Increase the number of American soldiers embedded in Iraqi units as trainers by stripping them out of the combat brigades now working to fight insurgents.

Kagan doesn't like this: 'It takes time to train military forces to be effective in counterinsurgency operations. It takes months to train American units--which, from the start, are stocked with experienced volunteer soldiers. In the violent situation in Iraq today, with the fledgling Iraqi forces, it takes more time. And right now, time is the one thing we don't have.'

I'm not going to devote much more space to the report, except to say that it may be useful as a microcosm - or a Rohrshcach - of the Iraq debate. Perhaps, too, it will give the public a chance to consider, and reject, the empty and failed policies of the past.

Update

Après Putnam, le deluge! I'm back from a pleasant two-week vacation with family in northeastern Connecticut, and ready to jump back into the political blogging fray. I'm rested, relaxed, and fresh as a daisy cutter.

New posts at Dreams Into Lightning - TypePad will now include Technorati tags where applicable. Also at the TypePad site, I'll be continuing the Flash Message feature, which is simply an occasional roundup of breaking news headlines and is posted at the top of the hour.

Regular posting will continue at Dreams Into Lightning - Blogger as usual. The Blogger site doesn't have auto-publishing, category archiving, or tagging features yet. I'll implement these as soon as Blogger tells me I can switch to Blogger Beta. Meanwhile, though, I'm going to trim down that sidebar a little bit to speed up loading. (UPDATE: This is done. I've cut down on some of the clutter, so this page should load faster now.)

As always, you will be able to read most DiL features on both sites, and if one is down you can always go to the other for the latest.

Morning Report: December 6, 2006

Moving forward. Analysts parse a prospective Defense Secretary's words, a European minister takes the broad view, Iran will get little subs but lose big bucks, an isotope goes to town, and a woman's life is spared. Oh, and there are still people in the world who understand the value of human life.

Return of the Baker Doctrine? It's not yet clear whether the Administration's new moves signal a return to the Baker Doctrine on Israel, but Debka reports:

Israel will face demands for concessions in the fresh US initiative on Israel-Palestinian peace advised strongly by the Bipartisan Iraq Study Group. The panel headed by former secretary of state James Baker and former congressman Lee Hamilton submits its report to the White House later Wednesday, Dec. 6. It is expected to recommend that Washington talk directly with Iran and Syria, as well as shifting the US military role in Iraq from combat to training by early 2008.

The Israeli prime minister’s office, responding to incomplete leaks from the bipartisan reports, assured the public Wednesday that there is no diplomatic pressure on the horizon. His aides must have missed this phrase: “The US cannot achieve its goals in the Middle East unless it embarks on a renewed and sustained commitment to a comprehensive peace plan on all fronts.”

A further the recommendation for US troops in Iraq to withdraw “from combat roles” leaves Jordan and Israel exposed on their eastern fronts to the mayhem in Iraq. Since the US presence in Iraq cannot be sustainable without engaging Sunni insurgents and al Qaeda in combat, this wording appears to be a euphemism for the US military exit from Iraq in just over a year.

And if the White House indeed takes up the Bush-Hamilton recommendation to deal directly with Iran and Syria, the Bush administrations policy somersault on the Middle East will be complete.

Four significant changes are indicated:
1. The US finds itself unable to prevent or respond to an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel, as incoming defense secretary Robert Gates stated bluntly in the Senate committee hearing Tuesday.
2. American forces will be gone from Iraq in just over a year.
3. Washington will soon embark on a fresh Israeli-Palestinian peace initiative.
4. Direct US-Iran, US-Syria talks are in the offing.
DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources note that Israel’s leaders, PM Ehud Olmert and FM Tzipi Livni, have not come up with any serious responses to the Gates statement on Iran and the Baker-Hamilton recommendations – both of which bear fundamentally on Israel’s security in the face of existential dangers. They would be well advised to get their act together fast, because the Bush administration is not expected to delay before putting these recommendations into effect.

At the Standard, Robert Kagan and William Kristol write that 'after nine months of deliberation and an unprecedented build-up of expectations that these sages would produce some brilliant, original answer to the Iraq conundrum, the study group's recommendations turn out to be a pallid and muddled reiteration of what most Democrats, many Republicans, and even Donald Rumsfeld and senior military officials have been saying for almost two years.' The article continues, 'One of the more striking aspects of the Iraq Study Group's report is that these recommendations are clearly not anyone's idea of the right plan. As the New York Times put it, they represent "a compromise between distinct paths that the group has debated since March." One commission source declared, "We reached a consensus, which in itself is remarkable." "Everyone felt good about where we ended up," said another. We're happy for them. But reaching consensus among the 10 members of the group was presumably not the primary goal of this exercise. The idea was to provide usable advice for the Bush administration that would help it move toward an acceptable outcome in Iraq. In that, the commission has failed. ... As for Baker's other significant and more original recommendation--that the United States hold direct talks with Iran and Syria to get their help in Iraq--Bush nixed that idea, too.' Full article at the link. (Debka, Standard)

Return of the Baker Doctrine, Part 2. Vital Perspective responds to an interview with the United States' likely next Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates: 'We're doing some blogging of the SECDEF hearings with Robert Gates, and thought this line of questioning from Sen. Graham on the Iranian nuclear threat was particularly interesting. Gates says that nobody - that's nobody - can assure Israel that they will not be attacked with an Iranian nuclear weapon should Iran obtain one...' Excerpts at the link. Debka has a similar take on the Gates interview: 'Gates’ words imply the Bush administration will disavow its long-held pledge to stop Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. The designated defense secretary Robert Gates’ replied to the Senate committee’s at his confirmation hear Tuesday: “If Iran obtains nuclear weapons no one can promise it would not use them against Israel.”' Full article at the link. (VP, Debka)

Another view of Gates. It's been said that "There are two kinds of people in the world - those who believe there are two kinds of people in the world, and those who don't." James Jay Carafano in National Review seems to be expressing a similar idea when he says 'There are “two Americas.” One is the land of bitter partisan political rhetoric where Republicans and Democrats hold Manichean views of national security and what needs to be done to make the nation safe, free, and prosperous. The other America is represented by the reality reflected in the Gates confirmation hearings — that the factions in Congress are not nearly far apart as their election-year ranting would leave you to believe.' Carafano's view of a prospective Gates era is distinctly more upbeat than some other analysts':

For the most part, the senators’ questions and the secretary-designate’s answers revealed Washington’s political leadership is not really all that divided on national-security priorities or on the practical range of options available to address the challenges ahead.

We learned, for example, that no one is really for “cutting and running” in Iraq, pulling our troops out right now regardless of the consequences. Nor is anyone seriously considering “staying the course” — leaving 150,000 troops in Iraq forever, doing the same thing day in and day out. In fact, there is a consensus for changes that will push the Iraqis to become less dependent on the U.S. forces and make the security assistance and support we provide them more effective and efficient.

We also found out that no one has really forgotten about Afghanistan. That country remains a critical front in the war on terror. ...

There was also a uniform recognition that the war on terror has worn down America’s military and that there needs to be a sustained commitment to adequate Defense spending to make sure the armed forces are trained and ready for the future.

It was also remarkable to see that when Gates reaffirmed his commitment to missile defense as an important tool in the future national-security tool kit, there wasn’t much rancorous disagreement from committee Democrats.

Go to the link for the full article. (NRO)

French FM sees context for Israel overflights in Lebanon. Via ProSemite Undercover, Jerusalem Post reports some refreshing news from France: '"The IAF forays cannot be considered as a separate element of UN Resolution 1701," French Foreign Minister Douste-Blazy said during a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni in Paris on Wednesday. "All parts of the resolution must be implemented, including the return of the kidnapped Israeli soldiers and preventing Hizbullah from rearming," said the French foreign minister. Israel's Foreign Ministry took Douste-Blazy's statement to mean that the he was siding with Israel regarding the IAF flights. Nevertheless, Douste-Blazy still pressed for a halt in the IAF sorties. "It's an important achievement we have to consolidate ... and ensure the respect of the embargo and - at the same time - a halt to the overflights," he said.' Full article at the link. (JPost)

More mini-subs for Iran. Strategy Page: 'December 5, 2006: Iran has put two coastal submarines into service. Apparently with technical help from North Korea, Iran is building these mini-submarines for operations along its coasts, and throughout the Persian Gulf. Four have been built so far. The sub has a two man crew, and can carry three divers, or several naval mines, or a torpedo. The Iranians say they will use the mini-subs to lay mines or launch underwater commando attacks. ...' (Strategy Page)

Trace polonium found at stadium. Seems like that irrepressible Element 84 is turning up all over the place. MSNBC: 'MOSCOW - Traces of the radioactive isotope polonium-210 have been detected at a London stadium that hosted a soccer match attended by a key figure in the probe of the fatal radiation poisoning of a former Russian spy, a British official said Wednesday. The key figure, Andrei Lugovoi, who is hospitalized in Moscow and being tested for possible polonium contamination, was to be interviewed by British investigators Wednesday, according to a Russian news agency report confirmed by a Lugovoi associate. ... Vyacheslav Sokolenko, a business associate, confirmed in an interview with The Associated Press that Lugovoi would be meeting with British investigators. Lugovoi, who is also a former Russian agent, attended a soccer match at Emirates Stadium on Nov. 1 after meeting Alexander Litvinenko. Litvinenko fell ill that day and died Nov. 23 in London. Toxicologists found polonium-210 in his body.' The Health Protection Agency states that there is no risk to public health from the "barely detectable" radiation. (MSNBC)

A flicker of hope: Parisa Akbari's life spared. Or Does It Explode: 'Parisa Akbari is alive. The fact that she is still alive offers a flicker of hope from Iran. On Monday, she was released from jail and acquitted of the charges against her, which carried the death penality. Here is the update on her case via Her Earth: Parisa Akbari, one of the Iranian women sentenced to death by stoning for "adultery," was released from jail as a free woman today after receiving 99 lashes for having sex outside of marriage. ... The lawyers representing these women are true heroes. Here's a salute to them - and to Parisa for survivng her ordeal - and to Ashraf, may she too soon escape the executioner's stoning.' (ODIE)

Under US pressure, UK banks end Iranian ties. Via Marze Por Gohar: 'Several of the UK's largest banks fear they could face the full legislative wrath of the US government unless they bow to Washington's pressure to shut their operations in Iran. It is believed that officials in President George Bush's administration have also put pressure on banks with operations in the US, including RBS, HSBC and Barclays, to stop acting on behalf of UK business customers in Iran. Barclays, it is thought, has already told its corporate clients that it will not accept deposits from transactions originating in Iran. ...' (MPG)

Belmont Club on Sunnis and Shi'as in Iraq. Wretchard continues to follow the Sunni/Shi'a conflict in Iraq: 'The logic for crushing the Sunni insurgency is that is the fate they have chosen for themselves. The objections against it are not only moral but practical. Removing them from the board will mean that there will be no countervailing force against the Shi'ites.' Shi'a leader Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim isn't interested in a "regional solution" at this point because: 'The Sunnis are on the ropes. He doesn't want anyone ringing the bell. He wants the full count.' Full post at the link. (Belmont Club)

Briefly noted. Woman Catholic joins DiL's blogroll.

Commentary. This morning, Steve at ThreatsWatch reports:

On the heels of an Israeli report of Hizballah’s use of human shields, the Hizballah coup d’etat continues in Beirut. Lebanese army commander General Michel Suleiman warned that the violence could escalate and adversely affect the army’s ability to hold itself together as a mixture of Shi’a, Sunni, Druze and Christian Lebanese soldiers. Gen. Suleiman said, “The absence of political solutions, along with the recurring security incidents, particularly those with a sectarian tinge, drain the army’s resources and weaken its neutrality. This weakness will make the army unable to control the situation in all areas of Lebanon.” This, of course, is surely one of Hizballah’s objectives should it eventually pursue a strategy of escalation as expected. The areas the Lebanese army would not be able to control would be the Hizballah-controlled territory south of the Litani River and the Bekaa Valley on the eastern border with Syria.

Hizballah’s current tactic utilizes the Shi’a civilian population in confrontation just as it did over the summer in its war with Israel.

Israel’s Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center will be releasing a study into Hizballah’s use of Lebanese civilians as human shields and Israeli civilians as targets, plainly titled Hezbollah’s Use of Lebanese Civilians as Human Shields. ...

The study will exhaustively document Hezbollah's cynical abuse of the civilian population in Lebanon. Steve's main complaint is that the report is coming rather late in the game. Israel - like certain other governments I can think of - sometimes has trouble getting the message out. But, better late than never.

The jihadi movement depends on keeping the public ignorant and misinformed of its true intentions and tactics. As the Militant Ideology Atlas from West Point's Combatting Terrorism Center explains, we can exploit one of the jihadis' principal vulnerabilities by exposing their fundamentally anti-human nature.

One who knows about this is Abu Kais at Michael J. Totten's Middle East Journal:

I was raised by my grandmother. Not once did she tell me that I should die. Her husband, who met her at a tobacco field when she was a teenager, threw a fit one day when I threatened to quit college following an argument with my parents. “You will graduate,” he would order me.

I graduated three times after that, but he wasn’t there to see it. Both he and my grandmother, two Shia villagers who migrated to Beirut to raise their children, did not see their favorite grandson (or so they told me), graduate. Both, however, instilled in me the rejection of death as an objective in life. They were both illiterate. My grandmother never missed a prayer. Yet she never told me that I should sacrifice my life. They said go and learn, and hoped they would see the day when I am successful with children of my own.

My grandparents are with me every minute of the day telling me to embrace life and look forward.

There is really nothing more for me to add to that.

Embrace life, and look forward.

News Roundup

Dreams Into Lightning is ending hiatus this week. Here's a roundup of current world events to get us rolling.

TMW: Taliban style comes to Gaza. 'I guess, Taliban style regime is not far away from now in the Gaza strip. Recently some anonymous group who personify itself the Just Swords of Islam has come out with a warning to the native women folk, which asserts that they are not suppose to go against the norms and traditions of Islam and so are not to be dressed in an ‘immodest’ manner. The ‘immodest’ manner targets to not wearing of the ‘burqa’. They reveled that last week they threw acid on a girl’s face who was not in the ‘hizab’. ...'

Weekly Standard on the President's war strategy. 'But the “clear, hold and build” approach is not an “option.” It's the president’s stated war strategy, and the defense secretary never implemented it. Secretary Rice outlined the strategy in Senate testimony in October 2005, and around the same time the White House chief of staff had to remind the secretary about the president's “clear, hold and build” counterinsurgency strategy. ... So the commander in chief announces a new war strategy and his defense secretary stonewalls it. If Rumsfeld didn’t agree with the “clear, hold and build” strategy, fine. He should have stepped aside and handed over the keys to the Pentagon to someone who supported the new strategy. ...'

CTB on Hezbollah's Lebanon coup. Walid Phares enumerates the following developments in day two: Hezbollah's deployment; Sunni resistance begins; Shi'a moderates appear; Hezbollah's next moves; media tilting noted; Lebanese face Hezbollah alone. In the "media bias" category, Phares notes (to nobody's surprise) that 'the choice of words in the reports issued by Reuters, AP and UPI indicates that they are increasingly portraying the HizbAllah’s campaign as “an opposition movement against a Government refusing to accept its demands.”'

Amarji: Tragicomedy of errors. 'Solving the Arab-Israeli Conflict is not a cure-all for the region’s myriad problems and will not denote the end of conflicts therein. The situations in the Sudan, Somalia and Algeria did not emerge as a result of the AIC, nor did the sectarian problems in Lebanon and Syria, nor the specific conditions that prevailed in Iraq and Afghanistan in the aftermath of the end of the Cold War. The claim by many in the region that the US went into Iraq and Afghanistan to execute an Israeli agenda is a reflection of the usual conspiratorial mentality so prevalent in the region and that reduces the complex dynamics of the American decision-making process to a single often over-inflated cause. This is not meant to argue, however, that the AIC should be ignored. ...'

Persian Journal: Hezbollah to destroy Lebanon again ... and again ... 'Shi'ite Hezbollah terrorists, backed by Syria and mullahs of Iran, wants to topple what it calls a U.S. government in Lebanon. The anti-Syrian politicians who dominate the cabinet say the opposition is attempting a coup. Although the dispute is political, many Lebanese fear the situation could spark sectarian violence. Tension between Sunnis and Shi'ites is high, in addition to bad feeling between Christians who support leaders allied to the rival camps. ...' More here.

SKF: No excuse for silence. Following up on an earlier post, Shiro-Khorshid Forever maintains that no Iranian activist need remain silent because of the regime's threats: 'What makes me really angry is the fact that this person and many others hide behind this fear and use it as an excuse for their silence. There are many ways to help without making ones identity known to the IRI. Writing letters to the Canadian Government [or your national government - aa], contacting different human right agencies and voicing ones concern, covering ones head and face while attending demonstrations and writing under an alias name are just a few ways of helping the students in Iran without getting in contact or being found out by the IRI.'

Abu Kais at MJT on Lebanon coup. 'In reality, there is little difference between what Hizbullah is trying to do and what Syrian intelligence did when they had direct control of all Lebanese institutions. The Syrian regime kept the Sunnis of Lebanon in check by occasionally obstructing Rafik Hariri’s projects and sponsoring Sunni fundamentalists to weaken the Sunni Mufti. Hariri was killed precisely because he was going to openly join the anti-Syrian opposition in the country, bringing with him many in his community. Defeating him through elections did not work in 2000 because he ended up sweeping the vote. Killing him was the only option for Bashar, who wanted to “break the country over the heads of those who opposed his orders.”'

Belmont Club on Iraq's Sunnis. 'This situation is perfectly clear once it is realized that the Sunnis are beaten, and not as the MSM would have it, advancing from triumph to triumph. They are confusing the grim ferocity of despair with exalatation of triumph. They are not the same. What must be done now is give the Sunni population a modicum of the security and prosects that they have thrown away. Only by guaranteeing them the secure retreat guarded by a Sunni force is their any hope of teasing them back into a political process they have ceded on a platter to the Shias. ...'

Remarks. Please go read the full posts/articles if you have the time. I'll be back posting my own thoughts soon. Right now I'll just say that the vacation has given me a chance to rest up and come back to world events with a fresh outlook. And I think there are lots of reasons to be hopeful - and even more reasons to stay involved!