Morning Report: December 10, 2006

Fog. The Report Which Shall Not Be Named gets a bad review in Baghdad; the Dark Lord needs to get his minions moving in a hurry; and the fog of something or other seems to hang over much of the West. But the view from London is crystal clear.

Talabani blasts Baker-Hamilton. MSNBC: 'BAGHDAD, Iraq - The Iraqi president said Sunday the bipartisan U.S. report calling for a new approach to the war offered dangerous recommendations that would undermine his country’s sovereignty and were “an insult to the people of Iraq.” President Jalal Talabani was the most senior government official to take a stand against the Iraq Study Group report, which has come under criticism from leaders of the governing Shiite and Kurdish parties. He said the report “is not fair, is not just, and it contains some very dangerous articles which undermine the sovereignty of Iraq and the constitution.”' Jerusalem Post: 'He singled out the report's call for the approval of a de-Baathification law that could allow thousands of officials from Saddam Hussein's ousted party to return to their jobs. "There is an article to bring back the Baathists to the political scene, which is very dangerous," he said in an interview with reporters at his office in Baghdad.' Debka: 'Iraq’s Kurdish president Jalal Talabani rejects Baker-Hamilton report as undermining the country's sovereignty and constitution. It contains dangerous articles that are an insult to the Iraqi people, he told reporters in Baghdad Sunday, Dec. 10. He referred to the Iraq Study Group’s recommendation of more centralized control of Iraq’s oil wealth and embedding thousands of US advisers in Iraq’s security forces as reflecting the mentality that Iraq is a colony. The solution to Iraq’s problems, said Talabani, lay in giving Iraq control of its own security. There is no security now because the prime minister cannot move 10 soldiers from one place to another (without US authorization). He also objected to including former regime members in reconciliation talks.' (various)

Hezbollah rally in Lebanon. Stratfor: 'Tensions remained extremely high in Beirut, Lebanon, on Dec. 10 as massive demonstrations against the government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora entered their 10th day amid heavy security. Sources said hundreds of thousands of Hezbollah supporters were pouring into the streets, waving yellow Hezbollah flags as well as red and white Lebanese flags. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has called for a general strike Dec. 11.' Arutz Sheva:

A mammoth Sunday rally in support of the Hizbullah terrorist party and its pro-Syrian allies has prompted Pope Benedict to issue a call for peace Sunday amid growing fears of a civil war in Lebanon.

The pro-Syrian elements have been staging daily rallies for more than week, choking downtown Beirut in an attempt to topple the anti-Syrian government. Army combat jeeps and thousands of soldiers have surrounded the government offices to protect the Prime Minister and other officials. An anti-government newspaper has warned that the protests will be followed by national strikes and civil disobedience if the government does not surrender to demands by Hizbullah and its allies.

Abu Kais at Michael J. Totten's Middle East Journal:

The Assad regime is in a hurry. Nasrallah hasn’t been able to deliver quickly enough. The Grand Serail is a fortress, and the Lebanese street is slowly turning against the protestors, who don’t even have safe passage back to their homes now. The orders from the Dark Lord’s council are to pack more people in downtown Beirut, and as soon as possible. The plan to occupy or lay siege to the Rafik Hariri International airport seems to be in full swing, although the Lebanese army will reportedly not allow it.

What’s the hurry for? ...

Read the rest at the link. (Stratfor, A7, MJT)

Brain fog. Far more pernicious than the fog of war, Wretchard argues at the Belmont Club, 'Some kind of brain fog has descended upon Western Civilization, a species of madness or abstraction that makes victory against the enemy impossible, not simply because victory is inconceivable, but the very concept of an enemy or warfare has become unthinkable to the postmodern bureaucratic mind. It is the very thought of fighting a foe -- fighting under any circumstances, however justified -- that has become the ultimate taboo. War has been banished, not from reality, but from the list of allowable thoughts.' (Belmont Club)

Iran regime steps up nuclear operations. Arutz Sheva: 'Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Saturday that Iran has expanded production of its national uranium enrichment program by adding 3,000centrifuges at a facility in the center of the country. Uranium enrichment has been banned by the UN Security Council, but its permanent members plus Germany are stalled in their efforts to agree on a sanctions resolution.' Debka: 'The Iranian president is quoted as saying Saturday that expanded production of the national uranium enrichment program by adding centrifuges is the first step towards industrial production. Uranium enrichment has been banned by the UN Security Council, but its permanent members plus Germany are stalled in their efforts to agree on a sanctions resolution.' (A7, Debka)

Iraqi security force takes lead in raids. Multinational Force Iraq:

Iraqi Security Forces and Coalition advisors confiscated weapons and detained suspects in a series of events here this week.

Saturday, Iraqi Soldiers and Coalition advisors detained five suspected terrorists. They also confiscated a weapons cache and stockpile of al Qaeda in Iraq propaganda near Mahmudiyah.

Based on intelligence from previous operations, Iraqi Soldiers from 2nd Battalion, 4th Brigade, 6th Iraqi Army Division, with advisors from Battery A, 2nd Battalion, 15th Field Artillery Regiment., 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division, conducted a raid on a small building complex, targeting an improvised explosive device cell, believed to be responsible for several attacks against Iraqi Security and Coalition Forces.

Iraqi Soldiers raided the objective, detained two individuals and observed three others attempting to escape. The Soldiers pinpointed and detained the three men in a canal.

The troops found two AK-47 assault rifles, a mortar cleaning kit, a shotgun and a mortar explosive charge following a search. They also found al Qaeda propaganda and a series of documents indicating future attacks.

In the al Doura neighborhood, 1st Battalion 6th Brigade Iraqi National Police and Coalition Forces seized several weapons caches during an early-morning operation Friday.

The joint operation was conducted based on tips from residents of the neighborhood, leading the police and troops to weapons caches in homes and the al Hassanae’en Mosque. ...

Full article at the link, and don't forget to bookmark the homepage. (MNF-Iraq)

Sandmonkey on Gaza exodus. Egyptian Sandmonkey: 'he Palestinians are leaving Gaza. Not because of Israel, or because of the shelling or the occupation, but because of their fear of a civil war between Hamas and Fatah. ... This is bad because the solution to Gaza ( and the palestinian Israeli conflict), in my opinion, has always been that the more educated more well-off Palestinians who live abroad would come back and invest in the little strip. If a large enough number of them came back, they would change many factors in the equation: Improve economic conditions, provide different voices and opinions of moderation, help raise the educational level in Gaza. Hell, maybe even change the culture of Death that Hamas imposed on the palestinian society over there. But that never happened, partly because of the high level of corruption exhibited in the PA, partly because of the never ending confict drama between the palestinian factions and Israel and partly because the palestinians who live aborad don't want to abandon their cozy lives and move back to freakin Gaza. The supreme majoirty of palestinians I have met who lived abroad (Here in Egypt, US, Europe) would never go back.' (Sandmonkey)

Arash Sigarchi needs help. It's not a nice world out there. If you're wondering what you can do to make a difference, The Spirit of Man has a suggestion: the fund for Arash Sigarchi.

Mr. Sigarchi is now serving jail time for bogus charges such as insulting the leader of the regime and espionage for the United States... etc. His charges are laughable and he doesn't deserve this situation at all.

He also lost his brother in a car accident last year while serving his 14 yr long jail time. His brother died in a terrible accident enroute to prison where Arash was being held. ...

As if he didn't have enough problems, Arash has been diagnosed with cancer. Go to The Spirit of Man to find out more, and please consider using that PayPal link (funds register in Canadian Dollars). Every bit helps. (TSOM)

Commentary. Warfare in the early twenty-first century is indeed proving to be a very different creature from its twentieth-century counterpart, and perhaps some people may be forgiven for failing to recognize war for what it is. What's inexcusable, though, is the abandonment of the highest values that the West holds dear.

Via daddicade in LiveJournal-land, here is the full text of British Prime Minister Tony Blair's speech on multiculturalism at the Telegraph. It is magnificent.

We should begin by celebrating something. When we won the Olympic Bid to host the 2012 Games, we presented a compelling, modern vision of Britain: a country at ease with different races, religions and cultures. This was not the stuffy old Britain that used to be sent up in the comedy sketches of the 1970s but a nation proud, willing and able to go out and compete on its merits.

Right away, the PM begins on a positive note: "We should begin by celebrating something." But celebrate what?

The ethos of this country is completely different from thirty years ago. The courts recognise racial offences in a way that was inconceivable then. We have the most comprehensive panoply of anti-discrimination legislation in the world. We have tough laws outlawing discrimination on the grounds of sexual orientation, religion, race, gender and disability. The Human Rights Act provides basic protection to ethnic minorities and lays down some minimum standards. It is a matter of some pride to me that it has only been Labour governments that have introduced anti-discrimination legislation.

Our public culture is also completely different. We now have more ethnic minority MPs, peers, and Ministers though not enough. We have had the first black Cabinet minister. The media are generally more sensitive, and include ethnic minority reporters and columnists. Racism has, for the most part, been kicked out of sport. Offensive remarks and stupid stereotypes have been driven out of public conversation. The basic courtesies, in other words, have been extended to all people.

It is this progress - a triumph of liberalism at its best - that Mr. Blair calls upon his countrymen and -women to celebrate. In the words of the much-maligned slogan: Celebrate diversity.

Trevor Philips said recently that Britain was by far the best place to live in Europe, if you are not white. Others might dispute that; but it was interesting he could say it so confidently. Recently, MORI updated a poll they have run over many years, about attitudes to race and ethnicity. Only 25 per cent of Brits say they would prefer to live in an all-white area. In some European countries it's over 40 per cent. Only 12 per cent of whites would mind if a close relative married a black or Asian person; those who would not mind were over 50 per cent. Just five years ago the figures were 33 per cent minding and just 22 per cent not minding.

It didn't happen easily. Most of us grew up in an era when action against discrimination was condemned as political correctness. But from Roy Jenkins seminal and brave speech in 1966 to the National Committee for Commonwealth Immigrants onwards, fair-minded people brought about the change we can justifiably celebrate in 2006.

Notice the rhetorical twist here, where Blair links the buzzword "political correctness" to the positive changes that have happened in Britain - thereby robbing the PC slur of its sting.

The day after we won the Olympic bid came the terrorist attacks in London. These murders were carried out by British-born suicide bombers who had lived and been brought up in this country, who had received all its many advantages and yet who ultimately took their own lives and the lives of the wholly innocent, in the name of an ideology alien to everything this country stands for. Everything the Olympic bid symbolised was everything they hated. Their emphasis was not on shared values but separate ones, values based on a warped distortion of the faith of Islam.

This ideology is not, of course, confined to Britain. It is a global phenomenon, long in the making and taking a long time to unmake.

However, it has thrown into sharp relief, the nature of what we have called, with approval, "multicultural Britain". We like our diversity. But how do we react when that "difference" leads to separation and alienation from the values that define what we hold in common? For the first time in a generation there is an unease, an anxiety, even at points a resentment that our very openness, our willingness to welcome difference, our pride in being home to many cultures, is being used against us; abused, indeed, in order to harm us.

Here the Prime Minister gets to the heart of the problem. Using the words "multicultural" and "diversity" without irony or apology, he asks: 'But how do we react when that "difference" leads to separation and alienation from the values that define what we hold in common? ' That's the central question. Here's how Blair answers it:

I always thought after 7/7 our first reaction would be very British: we stick together; but that our second reaction, in time, would also be very British: we're not going to be taken for a ride.

People want to make sense of two emotions: our recognition of what we legitimately hold in common and what we legitimately hold distinct. When I decided to make this speech about multiculturalism and integration, some people entirely reasonably said that integration or lack of it was not the problem. The 7/7 bombers were integrated at one level in terms of lifestyle and work. Others in many communities live lives very much separate and set in their own community and own culture, but are no threat to anyone.

But this is, in truth, not what I mean when I talk of integration. Integration, in this context, is not about culture or lifestyle. It is about values. It is about integrating at the point of shared, common unifying British values. It isn't about what defines us as people, but as citizens, the rights and duties that go with being a member of our society.

Christians, Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Sikhs and other faiths have a perfect right to their own identity and religion, to practice their faith and to conform to their culture. This is what multicultural, multi-faith Britain is about. That is what is legitimately distinctive.

But when it comes to our essential values - belief in democracy, the rule of law, tolerance, equal treatment for all, respect for this country and its shared heritage - then that is where we come together, it is what we hold in common; it is what gives us the right to call ourselves British. At that point no distinctive culture or religion supercedes our duty to be part of an integrated United Kingdom.

Go read the full text of Blair's speech on multiculturalism at the link. I'd like to say more about it, but here I'll just say this: Blair has done what Bush could not, by framing the present conflict not in terms of conservatism but in terms of liberalism. I'll end with the much-misquoted final words of this speech:

Our tolerance is part of what makes Britain, Britain. So conform to it; or don't come here. We don't want the hate-mongers, whatever their race, religion or creed. If you come here lawfully, we welcome you. If you are permitted to stay here permanently, you become an equal member of our community and become one of us. Then you, and all of us, who want to, can worship God in our own way, take pride in our different cultures after our own fashion, respect our distinctive histories according to our own traditions; but do so within a shared space of shared values in which we take no less pride and show no less respect.

The right to be different. The duty to integrate. That is what being British means. And neither racists nor extremists should be allowed to destroy it.

Morning Report: December 8, 2006

Baker-Hamilton-free zone. Bush says no to jaw-jaw with the islamist entity, security improves in southern Iraq, terrorist emirs are captured, and the dangers of "realism" are discussed.

Jeane Kirkpatrick dies. MSNBC: 'Former U.N. Ambassador Jeane J. Kirkpatrick, a one-time Democrat who switched to the Republican Party and warmly embraced Reagan era conservatism, has died. She was 80.' IRIS: 'Former U.N. Ambassador Jeane J. Kirkpatrick has passed away, a servant of her nation who honored it with her courage and moral clarity.' (MSNBC, IRIS)

Bush: No Iran talks. ThreatsWatch: 'Stating that there is a way for Iran to begin engaging the United States diplomatically, the President reaffirmed “that if they would like to engage the United States, that they’ve got to verifiably suspend their enrichment program.” Iran is currently engaging the United States and Britain militarily through its Iraqi proxies, Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigades.' Bush rejected calls by various parties for direct talks with the regime. ... Hinting at preconditions beyond the nuclear issue, President Bush said plainly, “If they want to sit down at the table with the United States, it’s easy. Just make some decisions that’ll lead to peace, not to conflict.” The US administration’s position was summed up concisely adding, “And if people are not committed, if Syria and Iran is not committed to that concept, then they shouldn’t bother to show up.” A group of British Parliament ministers also spoke against talks with Iran. Lord Corbett, the chairman of the British Parliamentary Committee for Iran Freedom, employed an even greater economy of words. Regarding the called-for Iran talks, he said, “The golden rule is… don’t talk to terrorists.”' Full article at the link. (ThreatsWatch)

Bush's remarks on Iran. Iran Focus: 'PRESIDENT BUSH: The increase in sectarian attacks we're seeing in and around Baghdad are unsettling. It has led to much debate in both our countries about the nature of the war that is taking place in Iraq. And it is true that Sunni and Shia extremists are targeting each other's innocent civilians and engaging in brutal reprisals. It's also true that forces beyond Iraq's borders contribute to this violence. And the Prime Minister put it this way, he said, "The violence is not an accident or a result of faulty planning. It is a deliberate strategy. It is the direct result of outside extremists teaming up with internal extremists -- al Qaeda with the Sunni insurgents, and Iran with the Shia militia -- to foment hatred and to throttle, at birth, the possibility of a non-sectarian democracy." You were right, and I appreciate your comments. The primary victims of the sectarian violence are the moderate majority of Iraqis -- Sunni and Shia alike -- who want a future of peace. The primary beneficiaries are Sunni and Shia extremists, inside and outside of Iraq, who want chaos in that country so they can take control and further their ambitions to dominate the region.' (Iran Focus)

Basra security improving. Gateway Pundit cites Haider Ajina in a post on security in southern Iraq:

The following is Iraqi-American Haider Ajina's translation of a headline and article, which appeared in Iraq's Buratha News agency December 7, 2006:

"Basra’s security is consistently improving"

Major General Ali Hamadi chairman of the tri-security agencies in Basra said today that the security situation in Basra has improved and is consistently improving. Operation Sinbad, for security and reconstruction, has achieved important results.

Hamadi added in a press conference he held today at Basra police head quarters, "Operation Sinbad has bore important fruit, for example the arrest of 1502 suspects, we were able to replace the British units in the tenth and eleventh phase of the operation. This will shrink the role of the British forces to that of support only.

Haider Ajina comments:

... Basra, Iraq’s second largest city, is moving on with its three month old Operation Sinbad, and methodically executing its eighteen phases.

It appears from last week’s news that Basra is calming down and has minimal sectarian strife. The Sadamists and Alqaida have not been able to create in Basra the strife they are creating in Baghdad. The three main Sunni groups have broken rank with their Ramadi and Baghdad colleagues and are joining with their Shiite brethren to keep Basra secure. The Basra Sunni leaders were the first to condemn attacks on Shiite shrines and Shiites, and they are continually calling for the stopping the spilling of Iraqi blood. These calls appear to be listened to in Basra. Most of the south of Iraq is a good example of what Iraqis working together can do. This is very similar the Baghdad I grew up in the 60s and 70s.

Much more at the post. Many thanks to Gateway Pundit for his diligent work in keeping us updated on the Iraq situation. (Gateway Pundit)

Terrorist emirs from Ansar al-Sunna captured, al-Qaeda in Iraq has "nowhere to turn". Multi-National Force Iraq (via Iraq the Model):

BAGHDAD, Iraq – On Wednesday, the Government of Iraq released the names and photos of several suspected senior-level Ansar al Sunna emirs who were captured by Coalition Forces during a series of raids in mid-November.

The AAS network is responsible for improvised explosive device attacks and suicide attacks on Iraqi government, Coalition Forces and Iraqi civilians. The AAS network is also responsible for multiple kidnappings, small arms attacks and other crimes in the central and northern part of Iraq.

One terrorist emir, Abu Mohammed aka Ismail, AAS Emir of Yusifiyah was killed during a raid late November.

The suspected Ansar al Sunna emirs who were captured are:

National level

- Ramadan Muhammad Salih Ahmad ((Bilbas)) aka Abu Mustafa, AAS Emir of Iraq. Abu Mustafa is a founding member of AAS.
- Taha Ahmad Pir-Dawud Ahmad ((Surchi)), aka Hajji Sa’id, Senior AAS representative and al-Qaida facilitator.
- ‘Adnan ‘Abdallah ‘Alaywi Muhammad ((al-‘Ithawi)), aka Abu Jaffar, AAS Secretary. He was Abu Mustafa’s personal assistant and he was responsible for arranging AAS senior-level meetings.

Regional level

- Hatim Abd-al-Ghafar Muslim Muhammad ((al Shimar)), aka Abu Taha, AAS Emir of Al Qa’im and Western al Anbar. He allegedly was a Colonel in the Iraqi Army before the war.
- ‘Abd-al-Basit ‘Abd-al-Razzaq Hasan ‘Ali ((al-‘Abbasi)), aka Abu Asim, AAS Emir of Tikrit.
- ‘Ali Hasayn ‘Ali “Abdallah ((Zandi)), aka Abu Bandar, AAS Emir of Baqubah.
- Amjad ‘Abd-al-Sattar Muhammad ‘Ali ((al-Ta’i)), aka Abu Najila, AAS Emir of Ramadi and Eastern al Anbar.
- Sa’id Jasim Muhammad Khudayyir al-Jadid ((al-Juwaynat)), aka Abu Sayf, AAS Emir of Bayji.
- Husayn Khudayyir ‘Abbas Majid ((al-Zubaydi)), aka Abu Husayn, AAS Emir of Bazayiz.
- Salih Khudayyir Salman Jadi ((al-Juburi)), aka Sajad, AAS Emir of Fallujah.

Omar at ITM comments: 'By the way, this is the same terror group that's been threatening to murder university students and teachers in Baghdad if the latter refuse to suspend study; perhaps the arrests and their locations explain why the threat was addressing students and teachers in Baghdad alone and not any other city.' (MNF-Iraq, ITM)

Student demonstration at Tehran University. Free Iran news forum has a thread on the recent student demonstrations in Iran. Site administrator Cyrus notes: 'Please be aware some of the protests might be allowed by regime as a trap.' (Free Iran)

Is it worse for the Jews? A lively and interesting thread at the always-worthwhile ProSemite Undercover. The original post cites Kenneth Levin at FrontPage Magazine, who traces the link between "Realpolitik" and genocide from Ba'athist Iraq (during the George H. W. Bush administration) to the present day. The poster comments: 'I have feared for a while that the mess in Iraq was going to lead to Jews being thrown under the bus as an appeasment strategy. That seems to be what is happening now. It is a dark day indeed.' Another commenter writes: 'Bush has destabilized the Middle East and made things much more volatile, no matter how happy Ohlmert might be that Saddam Hussein is gone. There's a growing appreciation that Bush's Iraq war has been a failure and a distraction from the real threat to peace in the region, which is Iran. And suddenly the philosophy of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" may bear fruit for Israel.' (PSU)

Commentary. The Israel supporters at ProSemite Undercover may have opposed the Iraq war, but likely for an entirely different set of reasons than the moonbats we're used to seeing at anti-war demonstrations. The arguments that "Iraq was going to lead to [Israel] being thrown under the bus as an appeasement strategy" and "[the Iraq war is] a distraction from the real threat to peace in the region, which is Iran" are compelling. While I did and do support the war in Iraq, I would disagree with these people only in matters of detail. Without a comprehensive Middle East vision that includes a secure Israel and a free, democratic, and peaceful Iran, victory in Iraq will be meaningless and impossible.

Morning Report: December 7, 2006

Dictators and the politicians who love them. Thousands of Iranian students demonstrate against dictatorship, while an Iraqi ambassador defends the US and Afghans say life is getting better. India gets missile defenses, and a rocket attack brings death sentences. Oh, and some guys in Washington wrote some kind of Iraq report thingy.

Fernandez on Baker's small stick. Richard Fernandez at Pajamas Media has an analysis of the Baker-Hamilton Iraq Study Group report. Fernandez critiques the report's overly broad and ambitious scope: 'There are two obvious problems with this approach. First is that Iraqi diplomatic success becomes dependent on the contingent. How can the ISG group have any reasonable expectation of promising the Iraqi International Support Group a lasting Israeli-Palestinian peace? Waiting to spend a check that’s been in the mail for decades is testimony to optimism, perhaps more optimism than Iraq has been allowed. Second, and of more concern, is that a regional forum runs the risk of regionalizing the national conflicts in Iraq. Each party, Turkey, the Gulf States, Iran and Syria, will seek to maximize its interests within the new framework the ISG wants to establish.' Full article at the link, and it's well worth reading. (PJM)

IFTC on ISG: The old is new again. Spook86 at In From the Cold comments on the Iraq Study Group report:

Thanks to a wave of pre-release media leaks and public statements by group members, there's really nothing in the report (and its recommendations) that we haven't heard before.

In fact, key portions of the security strategy are nothing more than existing policies--on an accelerated timetable. Consider these four "main" military missions for U.S. and Iraqi forces, as outlined in the ISG report; they are essentially the same tasks our armed forces have been performing since the overthrow of Saddam's government in 2003.

Provide political reassurance to the Iraqi government in order to avoid its collapse and prevent disintegration of the country.
Fight Al-Qaida and other terrorist organizations in Iraq
Train, equip and support Iraqi security forces
Deter even more destructive interference in Iraq by Syria and Iran.

Spook is concerned with the reports lack of interest in taking the fight to the enemy, and its insistence on an "arbitrary, accelerated deadline". The post concludes that 'Mr. Baker, Mr. Hamilton and other members of the group are focused on the short-term, outlining their "New Diplomatic Offensive" as the centerpiece of their strategy, and emphasizing engagment of our regional foes. It's a classicly American, "bipartisan," bureaucratic "solution" for complex issues that require vision, fortitude, and patience.' Read the whole thing at the link. (IFTC)

Walid Phares: "Iraqization is right, but surrendering to fascist regimes is wrong."

Walid Phares at Counterterrorism Blog: 'Phares told Al Muharer al Arabi that the global recommendation "to engage Iran and Syria's regimes positively and constructively means that they were mistreated before. My first question to the authors of the report is this: how was the United States mistreating these regimes in the past? Was asking Ahmedinejad to stop making a nuclear bomb and asking Assad of Syria to withdraw from Lebanon following a UN resolution signs of bad treatment? Were these demands wrong in their essence? Do they give Iran and Syria the right to feel victimized? If one perceives US action in this way, then all what Washington has to do is to release pressure on the Mullah to build their weapons and ask Assad to send his Army back to Lebanon." Phares added, "the public in America and the people in the region are not as naive as they were before 9/11. They will ask the hard questions when the time comes. The so-called engagement recommendation is a relic from the past and sounds like a suicidal idea. For surrendering to fascist regimes - regimes that are rejected by their own people - is utterly wrong." However on the Iraq restructuring suggestions, Phares told Radio Iraq and other radio shows that "the idea of the Iraqization process is a right one and has always received a consensus among Iraqis and Americans. General Abizaid and many others have voiced these suggestions in the past in the US and in Iraq."' (CTB)

Iranians: "Death to dictators!" While we're waiting for CNN and the New York Times to pounce on this story (and Morning Report suspects we may be waiting for some time), here's Or Does It Explode on the latest student demonstrations in Iran: 'The protest yesterday at Tehran University was apparently announced in advance by the national student union, Tahkim Vahdat. One blog carried live updates on the protest and noted that despite riot police present to make arrests, students reportedly broke open the gates to enter the campus. Gooya News also covered the protests (scroll down for photos). The protest followed a similar rally the day before at Sahand University in Tabriz, and smaller rallies were held on campuses across Iran. 4,000 students marched in Tehran. "Death to Dictators" was chanted by some. One speaker declared to the crowd: "Our struggle is fighting against internal oppression and outside imperialist threats."' (ODIE)

Iraqi ambassador defends US, attacks IRI. ThreatsWatch: 'Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki blamed the presence of US troops for Iraq’s current instability and for creating a security problem for Iran and the entire region. That’s when the Iraqi Ambassador to the Netherlands [Siamand Banaa] rose and challenged his “hypocrisy” and reminded him that the removal of Saddam Hussein “has been, I think, a great advance for you.” ' Fox News carries a report on the incident. (TW, Fox)

Things that suck. The Spirit of Man links US Army Sergeant T. F. Boggs: 'The Iraq Survey Group’s findings or rather, recommendations are a joke and could have only come from a group of old people who have been stuck in Washington for too long. The brainpower of the ISG has come up with a new direction for our country and that includes negotiating with countries whose people chant “Death to America” and whose leaders deny the Holocaust and call for Israel to be wiped from the face of the earth. Baker and Hamilton want us to get terrorists supporting countries involved in fighting terrorism! If I am the only one who finds something wrong with that then please let me know because right now I feel like I am the only person who feels this way. ... One of the main recommendations of the ISG is to send more troops to Iraq in order to train Iraqis so they can secure their own country, but they don’t feel that we are doing a good job of that right now because training Iraqis isn’t an attractive job for soldiers to do because it isn’t a “career advancing” job. As someone who trained Iraqis from time to time I take personal offense to this remark. In my experience soldiers clamored for the chance to train Iraqis. ...Talking doesn’t solve anything with a crazed people, bullets do and we need to be given a chance to work our military magic. Like I told a reporter buddy of mine: War sucks but a world run by Islamofacists sucks more.' (T.F. Boggs via TSOM)

Breaking: Israel won't pull out of Golan. Stratfor (subscription) reports: 'Israel will not withdraw from the Golan Heights, and U.S. President George W. Bush does not want Israel to withdraw either, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Dec. 7 in response to the Dec. 6 release of the report by the Iraq Study Group (ISG). One of the ISG's recommendations was to persuade Israel to return the Golan Heights to Syria.' (Stratfor)

Indo-Israeli anti-missile system. Strategy Page: 'December 7, 2006: Israel has sold India anti-ballistic missile radars. This equipment was used last month in a successful Indian test, where one ballistic missile was fired at another, incoming, one. The technology in question is from the Israeli Green Pine radar, which was originally developed for Israel's Arrow anti-ballistic missile system. Arrow was built, in cooperation with the United States, to defend Israel from Iranian and Syrian ballistic missiles. Now, this Israeli technology will help protect India from Pakistani missiles.' (Strategy Page)

Afghans: Life better post-Taliban. Telegraph: 'Despite fears of rising violence, three quarters of Afghans believe their quality of life has improved since the fall of the Taliban, according to a new poll. Violence continues to play a prominent role in the daily lives of Afghans, with four in 10 reporting experiencing insurgent attacks, including bombings, arson, and killings, in their areas. The poll, which comes on the fifth anniversary of the invasion of the country by coalition forces, found that confidence in the current security situation was deteriorating, with the number of Afghans saying security was better now than under the Taliban dropping to 58 per cent from 75 per cent last year. However, overall there still seems to be broad backing for the coalition's action to depose the former regime. Across the country 70 per cent say they are "grateful" rather than "unhappy" with the presence of Nato troops in the country.' (Telegraph)

Four get death sentences for attack on US ships. MSNBC: 'AMMAN, Jordan - A Jordanian military court on Thursday sentenced three Syrians and one Iraqi to death for firing rockets at two U.S. warships in August 2005. One of the Syrians, Mohammed Hassan Abdullah al-Sihly, is in police custody, but the other two Syrians, Abdul-Rahman al-Sihly and Abdullah al-Sihly, and the Iraqi, Amar al-Samera’i, remain at large and were tried in absentia.' (MSNBC)

Commentary. Today's big story is the release of the Baker-Hamilton report; which is to say, it's a slow news day. Stratfor's analysis (subscription) argues that the report "symbolizes a plan -- even if it isn't one". Fredrick Kagan at The Standard reiterates other commentators' assesment that the report offers little in the way of original ideas, and seems to want to talk about every problem in the Middle East except Iraq.

The report basically punts on the most important issue of the day--establishing security in Iraq. All of the pious exhortations to get Iraqis to sit down with one another, to engage Iran and Syria and to find political compromises are meaningless if we are unable to stem the tide of bloodshed that now engulfs much of Baghdad and Anbar province.

Yet the Baker Report devotes scant space (8 pages out of 56 in the proposals section) to the security problem and its recommendations are unoriginal: Increase the number of American soldiers embedded in Iraqi units as trainers by stripping them out of the combat brigades now working to fight insurgents.

Kagan doesn't like this: 'It takes time to train military forces to be effective in counterinsurgency operations. It takes months to train American units--which, from the start, are stocked with experienced volunteer soldiers. In the violent situation in Iraq today, with the fledgling Iraqi forces, it takes more time. And right now, time is the one thing we don't have.'

I'm not going to devote much more space to the report, except to say that it may be useful as a microcosm - or a Rohrshcach - of the Iraq debate. Perhaps, too, it will give the public a chance to consider, and reject, the empty and failed policies of the past.

Update

Après Putnam, le deluge! I'm back from a pleasant two-week vacation with family in northeastern Connecticut, and ready to jump back into the political blogging fray. I'm rested, relaxed, and fresh as a daisy cutter.

New posts at Dreams Into Lightning - TypePad will now include Technorati tags where applicable. Also at the TypePad site, I'll be continuing the Flash Message feature, which is simply an occasional roundup of breaking news headlines and is posted at the top of the hour.

Regular posting will continue at Dreams Into Lightning - Blogger as usual. The Blogger site doesn't have auto-publishing, category archiving, or tagging features yet. I'll implement these as soon as Blogger tells me I can switch to Blogger Beta. Meanwhile, though, I'm going to trim down that sidebar a little bit to speed up loading. (UPDATE: This is done. I've cut down on some of the clutter, so this page should load faster now.)

As always, you will be able to read most DiL features on both sites, and if one is down you can always go to the other for the latest.

Morning Report: December 6, 2006

Moving forward. Analysts parse a prospective Defense Secretary's words, a European minister takes the broad view, Iran will get little subs but lose big bucks, an isotope goes to town, and a woman's life is spared. Oh, and there are still people in the world who understand the value of human life.

Return of the Baker Doctrine? It's not yet clear whether the Administration's new moves signal a return to the Baker Doctrine on Israel, but Debka reports:

Israel will face demands for concessions in the fresh US initiative on Israel-Palestinian peace advised strongly by the Bipartisan Iraq Study Group. The panel headed by former secretary of state James Baker and former congressman Lee Hamilton submits its report to the White House later Wednesday, Dec. 6. It is expected to recommend that Washington talk directly with Iran and Syria, as well as shifting the US military role in Iraq from combat to training by early 2008.

The Israeli prime minister’s office, responding to incomplete leaks from the bipartisan reports, assured the public Wednesday that there is no diplomatic pressure on the horizon. His aides must have missed this phrase: “The US cannot achieve its goals in the Middle East unless it embarks on a renewed and sustained commitment to a comprehensive peace plan on all fronts.”

A further the recommendation for US troops in Iraq to withdraw “from combat roles” leaves Jordan and Israel exposed on their eastern fronts to the mayhem in Iraq. Since the US presence in Iraq cannot be sustainable without engaging Sunni insurgents and al Qaeda in combat, this wording appears to be a euphemism for the US military exit from Iraq in just over a year.

And if the White House indeed takes up the Bush-Hamilton recommendation to deal directly with Iran and Syria, the Bush administrations policy somersault on the Middle East will be complete.

Four significant changes are indicated:
1. The US finds itself unable to prevent or respond to an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel, as incoming defense secretary Robert Gates stated bluntly in the Senate committee hearing Tuesday.
2. American forces will be gone from Iraq in just over a year.
3. Washington will soon embark on a fresh Israeli-Palestinian peace initiative.
4. Direct US-Iran, US-Syria talks are in the offing.
DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources note that Israel’s leaders, PM Ehud Olmert and FM Tzipi Livni, have not come up with any serious responses to the Gates statement on Iran and the Baker-Hamilton recommendations – both of which bear fundamentally on Israel’s security in the face of existential dangers. They would be well advised to get their act together fast, because the Bush administration is not expected to delay before putting these recommendations into effect.

At the Standard, Robert Kagan and William Kristol write that 'after nine months of deliberation and an unprecedented build-up of expectations that these sages would produce some brilliant, original answer to the Iraq conundrum, the study group's recommendations turn out to be a pallid and muddled reiteration of what most Democrats, many Republicans, and even Donald Rumsfeld and senior military officials have been saying for almost two years.' The article continues, 'One of the more striking aspects of the Iraq Study Group's report is that these recommendations are clearly not anyone's idea of the right plan. As the New York Times put it, they represent "a compromise between distinct paths that the group has debated since March." One commission source declared, "We reached a consensus, which in itself is remarkable." "Everyone felt good about where we ended up," said another. We're happy for them. But reaching consensus among the 10 members of the group was presumably not the primary goal of this exercise. The idea was to provide usable advice for the Bush administration that would help it move toward an acceptable outcome in Iraq. In that, the commission has failed. ... As for Baker's other significant and more original recommendation--that the United States hold direct talks with Iran and Syria to get their help in Iraq--Bush nixed that idea, too.' Full article at the link. (Debka, Standard)

Return of the Baker Doctrine, Part 2. Vital Perspective responds to an interview with the United States' likely next Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates: 'We're doing some blogging of the SECDEF hearings with Robert Gates, and thought this line of questioning from Sen. Graham on the Iranian nuclear threat was particularly interesting. Gates says that nobody - that's nobody - can assure Israel that they will not be attacked with an Iranian nuclear weapon should Iran obtain one...' Excerpts at the link. Debka has a similar take on the Gates interview: 'Gates’ words imply the Bush administration will disavow its long-held pledge to stop Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. The designated defense secretary Robert Gates’ replied to the Senate committee’s at his confirmation hear Tuesday: “If Iran obtains nuclear weapons no one can promise it would not use them against Israel.”' Full article at the link. (VP, Debka)

Another view of Gates. It's been said that "There are two kinds of people in the world - those who believe there are two kinds of people in the world, and those who don't." James Jay Carafano in National Review seems to be expressing a similar idea when he says 'There are “two Americas.” One is the land of bitter partisan political rhetoric where Republicans and Democrats hold Manichean views of national security and what needs to be done to make the nation safe, free, and prosperous. The other America is represented by the reality reflected in the Gates confirmation hearings — that the factions in Congress are not nearly far apart as their election-year ranting would leave you to believe.' Carafano's view of a prospective Gates era is distinctly more upbeat than some other analysts':

For the most part, the senators’ questions and the secretary-designate’s answers revealed Washington’s political leadership is not really all that divided on national-security priorities or on the practical range of options available to address the challenges ahead.

We learned, for example, that no one is really for “cutting and running” in Iraq, pulling our troops out right now regardless of the consequences. Nor is anyone seriously considering “staying the course” — leaving 150,000 troops in Iraq forever, doing the same thing day in and day out. In fact, there is a consensus for changes that will push the Iraqis to become less dependent on the U.S. forces and make the security assistance and support we provide them more effective and efficient.

We also found out that no one has really forgotten about Afghanistan. That country remains a critical front in the war on terror. ...

There was also a uniform recognition that the war on terror has worn down America’s military and that there needs to be a sustained commitment to adequate Defense spending to make sure the armed forces are trained and ready for the future.

It was also remarkable to see that when Gates reaffirmed his commitment to missile defense as an important tool in the future national-security tool kit, there wasn’t much rancorous disagreement from committee Democrats.

Go to the link for the full article. (NRO)

French FM sees context for Israel overflights in Lebanon. Via ProSemite Undercover, Jerusalem Post reports some refreshing news from France: '"The IAF forays cannot be considered as a separate element of UN Resolution 1701," French Foreign Minister Douste-Blazy said during a joint press conference with Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni in Paris on Wednesday. "All parts of the resolution must be implemented, including the return of the kidnapped Israeli soldiers and preventing Hizbullah from rearming," said the French foreign minister. Israel's Foreign Ministry took Douste-Blazy's statement to mean that the he was siding with Israel regarding the IAF flights. Nevertheless, Douste-Blazy still pressed for a halt in the IAF sorties. "It's an important achievement we have to consolidate ... and ensure the respect of the embargo and - at the same time - a halt to the overflights," he said.' Full article at the link. (JPost)

More mini-subs for Iran. Strategy Page: 'December 5, 2006: Iran has put two coastal submarines into service. Apparently with technical help from North Korea, Iran is building these mini-submarines for operations along its coasts, and throughout the Persian Gulf. Four have been built so far. The sub has a two man crew, and can carry three divers, or several naval mines, or a torpedo. The Iranians say they will use the mini-subs to lay mines or launch underwater commando attacks. ...' (Strategy Page)

Trace polonium found at stadium. Seems like that irrepressible Element 84 is turning up all over the place. MSNBC: 'MOSCOW - Traces of the radioactive isotope polonium-210 have been detected at a London stadium that hosted a soccer match attended by a key figure in the probe of the fatal radiation poisoning of a former Russian spy, a British official said Wednesday. The key figure, Andrei Lugovoi, who is hospitalized in Moscow and being tested for possible polonium contamination, was to be interviewed by British investigators Wednesday, according to a Russian news agency report confirmed by a Lugovoi associate. ... Vyacheslav Sokolenko, a business associate, confirmed in an interview with The Associated Press that Lugovoi would be meeting with British investigators. Lugovoi, who is also a former Russian agent, attended a soccer match at Emirates Stadium on Nov. 1 after meeting Alexander Litvinenko. Litvinenko fell ill that day and died Nov. 23 in London. Toxicologists found polonium-210 in his body.' The Health Protection Agency states that there is no risk to public health from the "barely detectable" radiation. (MSNBC)

A flicker of hope: Parisa Akbari's life spared. Or Does It Explode: 'Parisa Akbari is alive. The fact that she is still alive offers a flicker of hope from Iran. On Monday, she was released from jail and acquitted of the charges against her, which carried the death penality. Here is the update on her case via Her Earth: Parisa Akbari, one of the Iranian women sentenced to death by stoning for "adultery," was released from jail as a free woman today after receiving 99 lashes for having sex outside of marriage. ... The lawyers representing these women are true heroes. Here's a salute to them - and to Parisa for survivng her ordeal - and to Ashraf, may she too soon escape the executioner's stoning.' (ODIE)

Under US pressure, UK banks end Iranian ties. Via Marze Por Gohar: 'Several of the UK's largest banks fear they could face the full legislative wrath of the US government unless they bow to Washington's pressure to shut their operations in Iran. It is believed that officials in President George Bush's administration have also put pressure on banks with operations in the US, including RBS, HSBC and Barclays, to stop acting on behalf of UK business customers in Iran. Barclays, it is thought, has already told its corporate clients that it will not accept deposits from transactions originating in Iran. ...' (MPG)

Belmont Club on Sunnis and Shi'as in Iraq. Wretchard continues to follow the Sunni/Shi'a conflict in Iraq: 'The logic for crushing the Sunni insurgency is that is the fate they have chosen for themselves. The objections against it are not only moral but practical. Removing them from the board will mean that there will be no countervailing force against the Shi'ites.' Shi'a leader Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim isn't interested in a "regional solution" at this point because: 'The Sunnis are on the ropes. He doesn't want anyone ringing the bell. He wants the full count.' Full post at the link. (Belmont Club)

Briefly noted. Woman Catholic joins DiL's blogroll.

Commentary. This morning, Steve at ThreatsWatch reports:

On the heels of an Israeli report of Hizballah’s use of human shields, the Hizballah coup d’etat continues in Beirut. Lebanese army commander General Michel Suleiman warned that the violence could escalate and adversely affect the army’s ability to hold itself together as a mixture of Shi’a, Sunni, Druze and Christian Lebanese soldiers. Gen. Suleiman said, “The absence of political solutions, along with the recurring security incidents, particularly those with a sectarian tinge, drain the army’s resources and weaken its neutrality. This weakness will make the army unable to control the situation in all areas of Lebanon.” This, of course, is surely one of Hizballah’s objectives should it eventually pursue a strategy of escalation as expected. The areas the Lebanese army would not be able to control would be the Hizballah-controlled territory south of the Litani River and the Bekaa Valley on the eastern border with Syria.

Hizballah’s current tactic utilizes the Shi’a civilian population in confrontation just as it did over the summer in its war with Israel.

Israel’s Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center will be releasing a study into Hizballah’s use of Lebanese civilians as human shields and Israeli civilians as targets, plainly titled Hezbollah’s Use of Lebanese Civilians as Human Shields. ...

The study will exhaustively document Hezbollah's cynical abuse of the civilian population in Lebanon. Steve's main complaint is that the report is coming rather late in the game. Israel - like certain other governments I can think of - sometimes has trouble getting the message out. But, better late than never.

The jihadi movement depends on keeping the public ignorant and misinformed of its true intentions and tactics. As the Militant Ideology Atlas from West Point's Combatting Terrorism Center explains, we can exploit one of the jihadis' principal vulnerabilities by exposing their fundamentally anti-human nature.

One who knows about this is Abu Kais at Michael J. Totten's Middle East Journal:

I was raised by my grandmother. Not once did she tell me that I should die. Her husband, who met her at a tobacco field when she was a teenager, threw a fit one day when I threatened to quit college following an argument with my parents. “You will graduate,” he would order me.

I graduated three times after that, but he wasn’t there to see it. Both he and my grandmother, two Shia villagers who migrated to Beirut to raise their children, did not see their favorite grandson (or so they told me), graduate. Both, however, instilled in me the rejection of death as an objective in life. They were both illiterate. My grandmother never missed a prayer. Yet she never told me that I should sacrifice my life. They said go and learn, and hoped they would see the day when I am successful with children of my own.

My grandparents are with me every minute of the day telling me to embrace life and look forward.

There is really nothing more for me to add to that.

Embrace life, and look forward.

News Roundup

Dreams Into Lightning is ending hiatus this week. Here's a roundup of current world events to get us rolling.

TMW: Taliban style comes to Gaza. 'I guess, Taliban style regime is not far away from now in the Gaza strip. Recently some anonymous group who personify itself the Just Swords of Islam has come out with a warning to the native women folk, which asserts that they are not suppose to go against the norms and traditions of Islam and so are not to be dressed in an ‘immodest’ manner. The ‘immodest’ manner targets to not wearing of the ‘burqa’. They reveled that last week they threw acid on a girl’s face who was not in the ‘hizab’. ...'

Weekly Standard on the President's war strategy. 'But the “clear, hold and build” approach is not an “option.” It's the president’s stated war strategy, and the defense secretary never implemented it. Secretary Rice outlined the strategy in Senate testimony in October 2005, and around the same time the White House chief of staff had to remind the secretary about the president's “clear, hold and build” counterinsurgency strategy. ... So the commander in chief announces a new war strategy and his defense secretary stonewalls it. If Rumsfeld didn’t agree with the “clear, hold and build” strategy, fine. He should have stepped aside and handed over the keys to the Pentagon to someone who supported the new strategy. ...'

CTB on Hezbollah's Lebanon coup. Walid Phares enumerates the following developments in day two: Hezbollah's deployment; Sunni resistance begins; Shi'a moderates appear; Hezbollah's next moves; media tilting noted; Lebanese face Hezbollah alone. In the "media bias" category, Phares notes (to nobody's surprise) that 'the choice of words in the reports issued by Reuters, AP and UPI indicates that they are increasingly portraying the HizbAllah’s campaign as “an opposition movement against a Government refusing to accept its demands.”'

Amarji: Tragicomedy of errors. 'Solving the Arab-Israeli Conflict is not a cure-all for the region’s myriad problems and will not denote the end of conflicts therein. The situations in the Sudan, Somalia and Algeria did not emerge as a result of the AIC, nor did the sectarian problems in Lebanon and Syria, nor the specific conditions that prevailed in Iraq and Afghanistan in the aftermath of the end of the Cold War. The claim by many in the region that the US went into Iraq and Afghanistan to execute an Israeli agenda is a reflection of the usual conspiratorial mentality so prevalent in the region and that reduces the complex dynamics of the American decision-making process to a single often over-inflated cause. This is not meant to argue, however, that the AIC should be ignored. ...'

Persian Journal: Hezbollah to destroy Lebanon again ... and again ... 'Shi'ite Hezbollah terrorists, backed by Syria and mullahs of Iran, wants to topple what it calls a U.S. government in Lebanon. The anti-Syrian politicians who dominate the cabinet say the opposition is attempting a coup. Although the dispute is political, many Lebanese fear the situation could spark sectarian violence. Tension between Sunnis and Shi'ites is high, in addition to bad feeling between Christians who support leaders allied to the rival camps. ...' More here.

SKF: No excuse for silence. Following up on an earlier post, Shiro-Khorshid Forever maintains that no Iranian activist need remain silent because of the regime's threats: 'What makes me really angry is the fact that this person and many others hide behind this fear and use it as an excuse for their silence. There are many ways to help without making ones identity known to the IRI. Writing letters to the Canadian Government [or your national government - aa], contacting different human right agencies and voicing ones concern, covering ones head and face while attending demonstrations and writing under an alias name are just a few ways of helping the students in Iran without getting in contact or being found out by the IRI.'

Abu Kais at MJT on Lebanon coup. 'In reality, there is little difference between what Hizbullah is trying to do and what Syrian intelligence did when they had direct control of all Lebanese institutions. The Syrian regime kept the Sunnis of Lebanon in check by occasionally obstructing Rafik Hariri’s projects and sponsoring Sunni fundamentalists to weaken the Sunni Mufti. Hariri was killed precisely because he was going to openly join the anti-Syrian opposition in the country, bringing with him many in his community. Defeating him through elections did not work in 2000 because he ended up sweeping the vote. Killing him was the only option for Bashar, who wanted to “break the country over the heads of those who opposed his orders.”'

Belmont Club on Iraq's Sunnis. 'This situation is perfectly clear once it is realized that the Sunnis are beaten, and not as the MSM would have it, advancing from triumph to triumph. They are confusing the grim ferocity of despair with exalatation of triumph. They are not the same. What must be done now is give the Sunni population a modicum of the security and prosects that they have thrown away. Only by guaranteeing them the secure retreat guarded by a Sunni force is their any hope of teasing them back into a political process they have ceded on a platter to the Shias. ...'

Remarks. Please go read the full posts/articles if you have the time. I'll be back posting my own thoughts soon. Right now I'll just say that the vacation has given me a chance to rest up and come back to world events with a fresh outlook. And I think there are lots of reasons to be hopeful - and even more reasons to stay involved!

Update

I'm winding up a two-week visit to Connecticut, and I'll be ending my hiatus soon too. Regular posting will resume by Wednesday.

Update

I'm posting from the lovely and cozy Victoria Station Cafe in Putnam, Connecticut (panorama here), now in the second half of my two-week visit to Putnam. You might have heard Putnam mentioned in the news because of the PlayStation shooting a couple of weeks ago, which happened just before I got here. (They've now arrested a couple of suspects.)

But did you hear about the Holiday Dazzle Light Parade?

Putnam, a town of about 9,000, saw an invasion of revelers that reached monumental proportions. The 20,000 in attendance almost matched the number of people who work at Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun casinos. The 20,000 is more than a sellout for the UConn basketball team at the Hartford Civic Center. It's more people than the populations of Canterbury, Pomfret, Sterling and Woodstock combined.

The enthusiasm didn't end Sunday night. The Winter Dazzle has accounted for dizzying amounts of people visiting the Norwich Bulletin's web site, www.norwichbulletin.com to see dozens of photos of the event. People just loved this parade.

How to explain it? ...

Read the rest at the link. The announcer on the local station, WINY, was commenting this morning that the station had contacted the news media in Hartford about the event, but was told that their reporters "couldn't find" Putnam. He said they didn't have any trouble "finding" Putnam when somebody got shot. He was pretty irate, and I don't blame him.

(For the record, I've never driven in Connecticut before, and am completely unfamiliar with this part of the state - but somehow, following Route 44 from Bradley Airport through the backwoods of Connecticut in the dead of night, I managed to "find" Putnam. Go figure.)

Anyway, thanks to the magic of blogging, you can get the good news, not just the bad. I was at the parade, I took photos, and I'll post 'em. And no, this has nothing whatsoever to do with the weighty issues facing the world today, but I'm enjoying my hiatus from political blogging and welcoming the chance for a little breathing space.

Regular posting will resume in a week.

Update: Pictures here.

Gay Palestinian Beaten at Pride Rally

Via American Thinker, Bookworm Room links to this story at SFGate:

A group of gay Palestinian Americans canceled a planned pride march in East Jerusalem on Friday after one of them was beaten unconscious by a local man who said he was from the Waqf Muslim religious authority.

The beating incident occurred on the same day an Israeli gay pride rally went ahead as scheduled, though without a planned march through city streets. The march had been called off after threats by religious and right-wing opponents to mount huge counterdemonstrations. Only minor violence marred the event. ...

In the East Jerusalem beating, two men -- one wielding a knife -- came looking for the group of gay Palestinian Americans who were staying at the Faisal Hostel near the Damascus Gate of the Old City. One of the assailants identified himself as being from the Waqf, the clerical trust that administers Muslim religious sites in the city.

"I'm pretty terrified right now," said Daoud, an MBA student from Detroit who declined to give his full name. "We left the hostel immediately, but when my friend went back to collect some things, they were waiting for him. They asked if he was with 'the homos' and then started beating him." ...

Daoud said nine gay Palestinian Americans had come to Jerusalem to join the pride march. "Maybe I was just being naive. I heard about the pride rally, and I thought it would be nice for us to do something together as a gay community," he said. "We got a different kind of reception instead."

In America, he said, "you have some tolerance and appreciation and understanding of what it means to be gay and to be a Palestinian. We're discovering the hard way it's not so acceptable here."

I won't adopt the sneering tone I've seen some conservative commentators take toward incidents like this, as if it's all a big joke. But it does speak volumes about the gulf between free societies and repressive ones. I'm glad Daoud wasn't injured more seriously. And I'm glad these guys are waking up to the homophobia that's still rampant and dangerous in the Arab-Muslim world - even if it was a rude awakening.

Jerusalem Gay Pride Wrap-Up

In the end, the event was held in a stadium.

CNN:

A few thousand gays and their supporters rallied in Jerusalem on Friday under heavy security, going ahead with a festival that has sparked religious protests and highlighted deep divisions in Israeli society.

... Organizers had planned a gay pride street parade but cancelled it after police said they needed to beef up security to guard against threatened Palestinian attacks following a deadly Israeli army shelling attack in Gaza this week.

Ultra-Orthodox Jews had also threatened to disrupt the march through the holy city. There have been nightly protests in Jerusalem's religious neighborhoods against the parade.

...Police said they arrested several religious youths near the venue who were carrying knives and brass knuckles. There were also a few minor scuffles between right-wing opponents of the event and gay rights activists in the city but little violence.

Arutz Sheva:

Event organizers reported that some 4,000 people attended Friday’s gay pride event in the Givat Ram area of the capital. About 3,000 policemen were on hand to maintain law and order. There were no serious disturbances reported.

Gay.com:

Police security worries spiraled after an errant Israeli artillery shells killed 19 civilians in Gaza on Wednesday and Palestinian militants vowed to carry out suicide bombings in Israel in retaliation.

Responding to those concerns, Pride organizers agreed to turn the parade into a rally, held inside the fenced-in stadium of Jerusalem's Hebrew University, which was ringed by mounted police and anti-riot units.

This article at Time points out some things you should know about Israeli culture:

The fuss over the Gay Pride Parade also exposed some of the seismic cracks inside Israeli society, where modern, secular values collide with fiercely defended religious traditions. The sharp Tel Aviv-Jerusalem rivalry illustrates this divide. Tel Aviv prides itself on its hip nightclubs and a laid-back, cosmopolitan attitude, while an hour's drive away, in some Jerusalem neighborhoods, ultra-orthodox men re-create the customs of 17th century Poland and wear long, black waistcoats and beaver hats that make them broil in the Mediterranean sun.

Making up half of the Holy City's Jewish residents, the ultra-Orthodox ride their own buses, send their kids to religious schools and have the power to close off their neighborhoods to cars on the Sabbath. Any Tel Aviv visitor wandering into these austere communities in shorts and a T-shirt on the Sabbath runs the risk of getting clobbered by a rock.

Even Jerusalem's gays are more subdued than Tel Aviv's. Organizer Canetti says she asked Tel Aviv's participants to tone down their sexy costumes. "We're not having floats or naked men flashing their asses," she says. "We just want to tell people, hey, we're here. We have a right to exist."

Now for my thoughts.

As regular readers of this site know, I originally opposed the Jerusalem parade because I feared it would result in a net setback for gay rights in Israel, and because I was worried about the negative image of Israeli Jews that would likely result from the haredi protests.

But the gay marchers (who, as the previous article indicates, did not copy the notoriously provocative fashions of gay pride events elsewhere) are not responsible for the behavior of the haredi (so-called "ultra-orthodox") Jews. If religious zealots chose to throw a collective temper tantrum in front of the world, they would have nobody but themselves to blame for the resulting damage to the image of Jews everywhere.

The gay pride event challenged Jerusalem's traditional religious community to grow up. It was never a question of whether the hareidi orthodox would approve the event - no one would expect them to - but how they would choose to express their disapproval. Ironically, while reading descriptions of the rioting and the self-justifications of the hareidim, I was once again reminded of the parallel between the insular worldview of Israel's orthodox and that of American left-wingers, which I previously explored here:

Like the religious Zionist movement, the American Left was the only segment of society that was strenghtened, not weakened, by the last war - in our case, Vietnam. Over the next three decades, the liberal movement - that is, the increasingly dogmatic ideology that called itself "liberalism" - consolidated its hold on our media, our educational and cultural institutions. Liberal communities like Berkeley and neighborhoods like, well, the one I live in, ensured that left-leaning Americans could live comfortably without having to rub elbows with "red-staters".

Liberal Americans, guided by a "deep internal sense of being in the right without asking for or needing external confirmation," built and strengthened their own communities but rarely stopped to ask themselves what they might learn from their conservative neighbors...

The compromises made by each side in this controversy are part of the necessary process of Israel's development as a nation. Even the most basic steps - renouncing lewdness and violence - are evidence that the process continues as it must. In the end it can only strengthen Israel's religious community, its gay community, and its society as a whole.

Finally, let me leave you with this article about Israeli lesbian Avigail Sperber, which comes by way of Sarah at Israelity:

Avigail Sperber, 33, is a film director and cinematographer. She has made several documentaries and a short movie, and is currently working on her first full-length film. Her father is Rabbi Prof. Daniel Sperber, who teaches Talmud at Bar-Ilan University and received the Israel Prize for his achievements in his field. For many years, he chaired the public council for state religious Jewish education. Sperber found it especially difficult to accept the disclosure of his daughter's sexual identity. However, his public position, Avigail stresses, was never a factor in her family's acceptance of her lesbianism. ...

For Avigail, the high point in her family's acceptance of her was reached a year ago, when her younger sister Shuli, who had become ultra-Orthodox, was to be married to a young man who had also become ultra-Orthodox. It was considered only natural to invite both Avigail and her present partner, film director Netali Baron (whose film, "Metamorphosis," about four rape victims, was screened this week on Israel Television's Channel 1). Hannah felt this was not enough and began inviting other lesbian friends of Avigail's whose families had severed contact with them. ("Some girls are no longer welcome in their own homes, even on holidays, even without their partner.")

Two years ago, Hannah started a support group for the religious parents of homosexual/lesbian children (fathers were invited, but only the mothers actually attended). Monthly meetings were held at the Sperber home in the Jewish Quarter in Jerusalem's Old City. Over the past few months they have not met, but Hannah said this week that the controversy generated by the gay pride parade is a good reason to reactivate the group.

Hannah: "Initially, I attended a parental support group at the Open House [a center for the gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender, or GLBT, community in Jerusalem]. However, some parents didn't like going there. That's why I launched the group in my home. There are various levels of attitude with respect to the children in this group. One mother, who's very extreme, said she wouldn't invite her daughter to the weddings or other occasions of her siblings. Another mother, a widow, moved me when she declared that she loved her homosexual son very much. Her greatest fear was that he would stop being religious...

Read the rest at the link.

At its best, Israel stands as a model of what a free and democratic society in the Middle East could be. It can, in effect, say to its Arab and Muslim neighbors: "This is what democracy looks like."

For all related posts, please go to this category archive: Jerusalem Pride 2006.

Morning Report: November 14, 2006

Tehran's determination, Washington's vacillation, London's negotiation. Has the West's strategy changed? Did the West ever even have a strategy? Iran has one - and it hasn't changed.

Ahmadinejad: Fuel program near completion. AP via Yahoo: 'President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Tuesday said Iran would soon celebrate completion of its controversial nuclear fuel program. "With the wisdom and resistance of the nation, today our position has stabilized. I'm very hopeful that we will be able to hold the big celebration of Iran's full nuclearization in the current year," the hard-line president said referring to the country's nuclear fuel program. Iran's current calendar year ends on March 20.' (AP)

Nasrallah: Lebanon's Siniora government to go. Debka: 'Nasrallah tells his Hizballah followers in S. Lebanon: Siniora government will soon be ousted. It will soon be replaced with a “clean government,” he said. Six pro-Syrian ministers including Hizballah quit the Lebanese government Saturday, breaking up unity coalition talks and aiming to torpedo Foud Siniora’s initiative for an international tribunal to try the men implicated in the Feb. 2005 murder of the Lebanese politician Rafiq Hariri last year, including relatives of Bashar Asad’s. The pro-Syrian camp demanded veto power in the new coalition and threatened to foment civil unrest if their demands were not met. Nasrallah reported that until now Hizballah had spent $300 m in funds received from Iran to repair the damage caused in its war on Israel.' Strategy Page: 'Hizbollah is demanding more seats in the Lebanese cabinet, so that Hizbollah would have a veto over anything the government sought to do. The majority Christians, Sunnis and Druze have refused. Hizbollah believes that it is strong enough to impose its will on the majority of Lebanese. Hizbollah openly boasts of the huge amount of cash it is getting from Iran, and points out that the UN peacekeepers in southern Israel do not interfere with Hizbollah, and, instead, protect Hizbollah from the Israelis. If the majority Lebanese refuse Hizbollah demands, they risk starting another civil war. Hizbollah is less afraid of another war, and this gives Hizbollah an edge.' (Debka, Strategy Page)

Amir Taheri: Iraqis' uncertainties. Amir Taheri at Benador:

The Shiites, grateful though they are to America for having helped them win power for the first time, feel obliged to have a insurance policy for when (not if) the Americans cut and run. This is why all prominent Iraqi Shiite politicians have been to Tehran.

That insurance, however, comes at a price. Iran's rulers insist that the new Iraq turn a blind eye to the activities of Shiite militias, created and armed by Tehran with Hezbollah support.

And, because they are unsure of American steadfastness, the Shiites are pressing for a federal structure that would give them 90 percent of Iraq's oil regardless of what happens next. That, together with the increased activities of Shiite death squads, enrages the Arab Sunnis.

These Sunnis know that as long as there is a U.S. military presence, the Shiites can't move into Sunni provinces to solve the problem the Oriental way - that is, by large-scale killings and ethnic cleansing. But what if the Americans leave before Iraq has a government capable of protecting all communities?

Uncertain about U.S. intentions, many Sunni Arabs tolerate (if not actually support) the Saddamite bitter-enders and, to a lesser extent, the non-Iraqi jihadists and suicide bombers. Just as Iraqi Shiites look to Iran for insurance, Iraqi Sunnis regard Jordan and, to a lesser extent, Syria and Egypt, as putative protectors.

Uncertainty about American fidelity also affects the policies pursued by Iraqi Kurds. ...

Read the rest at the link. (Benador)

Blair's foreign policy speech: Ties with America, isolation for Iran. Via Iran Focus:

There is a fundamental misunderstanding that this is about changing policy on Syria and Iran. First, those two countries do not at all share identical interests. But in any event that is not where we start.

On the contrary, we should start with Israel/Palestine. That is the core. We should then make progress on Lebanon. We should unite all moderate Arab and Moslem voices behind a push for peace in those countries but also in Iraq. We should be standing up for, empowering, respecting those with a moderate and modern view of the faith of Islam everywhere.

What is happening in the Middle East today is not complex. It is simple. Iran is being confronted over its nuclear weapons ambitions. Its stock market has lost a third of its value in the last year and foreign credit is increasingly hard to come by. The statements of its President - such as wiping Israel from the face of the earth - are causing alarm, even in Iran.

To be fair, they have a genuine, if entirely misplaced fear, that the US seeks a military solution in Iran. They don't. But we all want Iran to suspend its enrichment process which if allowed to continue, will give them a nuclear weapon. Under the agreement we brokered in June, the US has said they will talk to Iran direct for the first time in 30 years, if they abide by the UN demand to suspend enrichment. But Iran is refusing to do it.

Instead they are using the pressure points in the region to thwart us. So they help the most extreme elements of Hamas in Palestine; Hizbollah in the Lebanon; Shia militia in Iraq. That way, they put obstacles in the path to peace, paint us, as they did over the Israel/Lebanon conflict, as the aggressors, inflame the Arab street and create political turmoil in our democratic politics.

It is a perfectly straightforward and clear strategy. It will only be defeated by an equally clear one: to relieve these pressure points one by one and then, from a position of strength to talk, in a way I described in July in my speech in Los Angeles: offer Iran a clear strategic choice: they help the MEPP not hinder it; they stop supporting terrorism in Lebanon or Iraq; and they abide by, not flout, their international obligations. In that case, a new partnership is possible. Or alternatively they face the consequences of not doing so: isolation.

Blair goes on to stress the importance of ties with America. Full text of British Prime Minister Tony Blair's speech at the link. (Iran Focus)

Commentary. Marze Por Gohar quotes the Financial Times:

Downing Street officials made clear Mr Blair's speech did not represent a change of policy on Iran and Syria - and Mr Blair himself suggested that those who thought it was such a change were guilty of a "fundamental misunderstanding".

In July - in a speech in Los Angeles - Mr Blair made a similar plea that Iran and Syria must "come in to the international community and play by the same rules as the rest of us - or be confronted". However, Mr Blair's restatement of the argument is now more significant because the Bush administration is thinking hard about whether to engage with Iran and Syria.

The Telegraph has this to say:

Both the American and the Downing Street versions of this formula are being billed as fresh, realistic responses to the dilemma of post-war Iraqi chaos. In fact, they represent a stunningly abrupt volte-face in the Anglo-American approach to the problems of the region.

Iran and Syria would be offered privileged status in resolving the future of Iraq, even though they have previously been regarded as serious obstacles to peace in the Middle East and, in the case of Iran, the most prolific sponsor of terrorism in the West — as Con Coughlin reminds us today with his revelations about Teheran's links with al-Qa'eda. ...

It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that Washington and London are now so eager for a face-saving formula that would enable them to wash their hands of Iraq and its apparently intractable problems that they are prepared to retreat from positions which they had declared, only weeks ago, to be principled and unflinching.

Instead of delivering ultimatums to Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on his nuclear ambitions, Britain and America are to offer him an invitation to play a larger and more influential role in global politics.

I don't have any comments directly on Blair's speech. The Telegraph's view reflects a disappointment with both London's and Washington's retreat into myopic "realist" foreign policy doctrine. My general impression from the text is that Blair has not really said anything new on the Middle East; but his stress on the importance of relations with America is interesting. He's mentioned Russia, China, and the EU in passing, but the stress is on US ties. Clearly a lot of this is directed at the British Left (and perhaps specifically the Mayor of London) but I don't know what the significance of it is in the context of Mideast policy.

My impression from reading the Iranian activist sites is that pro-democracy Iranians view the UK with much greater suspicion than they see the United States. As for what change, if any, is in store for cozy London-Tehran ties, we'll have to wait and see. I'll be watching this closely.

UPDATE: This post by Hashem Hakimi at the Free Iran news forum illustrates exactly what I'm talking about:

Congratulations,
The Brits did it at the end!!!??

This was the Brits plan right from the start. To pull the Yanks in & then see to it that they are out with disgrace!? The same old story of special relationship of Brits & the Yanks!!??

Did you learned your lesson!?
Hashem
===========================

INDEPENDENT 14th November 2006.
By Liz Harris
OUR NEW FRIENDS IN THE MIDDLE EAST:
BLAIR URGES BUSH TO MAKE U-TURN ON SYRIA AND IRAN.

In a major departure from previous foreign policy, Britain’s Prime Minister Tony Blair urged his so-called “war on terror” ally George Bush last night to engage with Iran and Syria and encourage them to contribute to sorting out the endemic violence in Iraq.

In his annual foreign affairs speech last night at London’s Guildhall, the Prime Minister threw in his lot with the voices of the Iraq Study Group and urged co-operation with Iran and Syria.

The PM is at pains to deny that this is a policy shift. The two countries can either co-operate or face isolation, he told the gathering. ...

Dr. Hakimi's point is that Blair's declaration is indeed no policy shift for London, but rather part of its plan from the beginning - a plan that has little concern for the interests of America or the freedom-loving people of Iran.

Morning Report: November 13, 2006

Ripple or sea change? A foreign submarine follows American warships. But has the President's foreign policy vision been deep-sixed?

Chinese sub stalked American fleet. Washington Times: ' Chinese submarine stalked a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group in the Pacific last month and surfaced within firing range of its torpedoes and missiles before being detected, The Washington Times has learned. The surprise encounter highlights China's continuing efforts to prepare for a future conflict with the U.S., despite Pentagon efforts to try to boost relations with Beijing's communist-ruled military. The submarine encounter with the USS Kitty Hawk and its accompanying warships also is an embarrassment to the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, Adm. William J. Fallon, who is engaged in an ambitious military exchange program with China aimed at improving relations between the two nations' militaries. Disclosure of the incident comes as Adm. Gary Roughead, commander of the U.S. Navy's Pacific Fleet, is making his first visit to China. The four-star admiral was scheduled to meet senior Chinese military leaders during the weeklong visit, which began over the weekend.' UPDATE: Submariners' blog The Stupid Shall Be Punished has more:

Absent from the article will be any indication that it's not tough at all for a submarine to trail a carrier; what's tough is doing it when they're at a heightened alert level and have a friendly submarine attached to them, without having the friendly submarine ready to take you out at any time. ...

It's even lamer than I thought; the Song-class diesel boat was spotted on the surface about five miles from the Kitty Hawk. So, either the Chinese were trying desperately to let us know that they could get that close to us, or this is another of a series of attempts by the Chinese to send their submarines farther afield where they just can't seem to stay undetected and/or submerged. Since they have nothing to gain by taunting us like that, I vote for the second option.

For some background: the Chinese were probably interested in checking out preparations for the Annualex 18G exercises taking place south of Kyushu.

Read the full post at the link. Keep an eye on Dreams Into Lightning for more updates and details. (Washington Times, TSSBP)

Olmert met with Rice in Washington. Arutz Sheva: 'Prime Minister Ehud Olmert met in Washington on Sunday night with US Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice. The two discussed the possibility of a new political realities vis-a-vis the PA (Palestinian Authority) and the Iranian threat. In addition, the meeting served as a prepatory event ahead of Monday’s meeting between Olmert and US President George W. Bush.' (A7)

Blair wants to work with Syria, Iran. Arutz Sheva: 'British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Monday will call on Syria and Iran to work towards increased regional peace and stability as well as working towards reducing violence in Iraq. According to a Reuters news agency report, the British leader believes the time has come to persuade Tehran and Damascus that if they are not part of the solution, then they are part of the problem, indicating Blair intends to paint a picture showing them the consequences of failing to assist towards bringing peace to the region.' AP via Iran Focus: 'British Prime Minister Tony Blair urged the international community on Monday to engage Iran and Syria to advance the peace process in the Middle East and defended his government's close relationship with the U.S. Blair said the outcome of the Iraq war was central to bringing peace to the Middle East, and the world must make clear to Syria and Iran how they can assist in the process as well as the consequences of hindering it. Blair was to deliver the remarks in a speech later Monday and excerpts of the text were released in advance by his office. The United States has said it was willing to hold direct talks with Iran about Iraq - which would be the most public exchange between the countries in years. But the U.S. does not want to discuss broader subjects such as Iran's contentious nuclear program which Washington suspects is aimed at making weapons.' (A7, Iran Focus)

ThreatsWatch on Lebanon. ThreatsWatch:

Hizballah’s weekend move is believed to be driven by their Syrian sponsors seeking to evade further any prosecutions and likely resulting sanctions. The situation is being placed within the context of a greater ‘cold war’ over influence in the Middle East, principally between the United States and an Iranian-Syrian cabal.

But Hizballah’s quiting the cabinet does not automatically dissolve the government based on their non-participation and Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora rejected the Hizballah resignations. In the United States, the White House issued a statement that criticized the move and condemned Iran and Hizballah, stating that “Hezbollah and Iran remain a dangerous, global nexus of terrorism.”

Hizballah deputy chief Naim Kassem siad that the resignations were but the first step in a Hizballah strategy to assume power within the Lebanese government. “There will be other steps that we will discuss in detail with our allies and which we will announce gradually,” he said.

Full article at the link. (ThreatsWatch)

Olmert on Palestinian plans, Iranian options. Vital Perspective: 'In an interview with Lally Weymouth that was just put to print today, Israeli PM Ehud Olmert insisted he still stands by his plan for peace with the Palestinians and declared that Israel 'has many options' to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat.' He's got a comeback for that question about poll numbers, too. Transcript at the link. (Vital Perspective)

The Mesopotamian on America's Iraq policy. Alaa at The Mesopotamian: 'The only thing that America is guilty of is that of underestimating the viciousness of the enemy, and not so much his military capability; because the enemy’s weapon is not so much military prowess, but evil and viciousness. He specializes in hitting below the belt. He has no rules and no scruples, and will stop at nothing. He is absolutely devoid of any kind of human feeling. To think that you can reason with him or somehow accommodate his wishes and desires is absolute folly and suicide. This was clearly illustrated lately in Iraq when all kinds of overtures and approaches were made in forlorn hopes of appeasing him. This only resulted in boosting his morale and appetite for murder and violence. America seems to have become confused and loosing sight of the fundamentals of the issue and even who the real enemy is. Of course this was aided by a massive propaganda assault aimed directly at the American public from abroad and from within.' Full post at the link. (The Mesopotamian)

Kianoush Sanjari. New Iranian blogger Sayeh Hassan at Shiro-Khorshid Forever writes: 'Kianoush SANJARI, a student activist and blogger was re-arresed on Oct. 7th while preparing reports on protests in support of Ayatollah Broujerdi. He is currently being held in ward 209 of the Notorious Evin prsion and is tortured and interoggated several times a day.' Go to the link for the Amnesty International report. (SKF)

Commentary. Despite having left the Marine Corps with the exalted rank of Corporal, I am not an expert on military matters. But if you read the guys who are, they'll tell you that there are a few things - only a few - that you can count on in war. They'll tell you that war is a fluid, ever-changing thing, and that success depends on persistence, flexibility, and your ability to adapt to new conditions, respond to new threats, and exploit new vulnerabilities on the enemy's side.

That last week's Republican losses were a setback in the war against terrorists and dictators is beyond dispute, though the magnitude and nature of that setback may be subject to debate. Still more serious, as some see it, is the Bush Administration's apparent abandonment of the central tenets of its foreign-policy doctrine. In short, it is a victory of the self-styled "realists" over the neoconservatives.

Here is what Debka has to say:

Bush Prepares Switch on Iraq and Downgrading of US Ties with Jordan and Israel
November 12, 2006, 4:14 PM (GMT+02:00)

Monday, Nov. 13, former US secretary of state James Baker and ex-Congressman Lee Hamilton will present their recommendations on Iraq to President Bush in the Oval Office. Their audience will include an array of top administration officials: Vice President Dick Cheney, national security adviser Stephen Hadley, secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte and CIA Director Gen. Mike Hayden, as well as U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Peter Pace. Incoming defense secretary Robert Gates will attend as a member of the bipartisan committee.

Absentees will include outgoing defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who stepped down after the Republican’s lost the Nov. 7 midterm to the Democrats over the Iraq war, and the commanders directly running that conflict, Generals John Abizaid and George Casey.

The timing and composition of the conference indicate that the larger decisions are already in the bag with regard to the new US policy on Iraq and a fresh approach to the radical side of the Middle East led by Iran and Syria, mainly at the expense of Jordan and Israel. Monday’s White House conference will be concerned mostly with tying up the last ends and deciding who performs which part of the revised strategy.

DEBKAfile’s Washington sources report that Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, who is due Monday will be one of the first foreign White House visitors to hear an update on the new policy. He will find he is required to listen rather than speak. Bush will use the occasion to inform him where America’s Iraq policy leaves Israel and the Palestinian dispute.

Now I've recently been reminded from several quarters that Debka is neither omniscient nor infallible, so I pass that caveat on to you. Nevertheless, the bleak report reflects one set of conclusions that can be drawn from the events of the past week. Today's analysis at Stratfor asserts that "the Israelis have real reasons to be concerned" about Washington's plans, which may include cutting a deal with Tehran to end the US/Iran proxy war in Iraq, and perhaps assurances that Israel will not strike Iran on its own.

But as the Stratfor piece notes, Washington may not be in a position to deliver such assurances on Israel's behalf. Meanwhile, Amir Taheri argues that the recent election won't result in an American "Madrid effect" because the word "Iraq" means different things to different people: 'The word "Iraq" brought together a disparate coalition that might unravel, now that the Democrats share greater responsibility in shaping policy.' And Michael Ledeen, channeling James Jesus Angleton, finds that the Gates appointment doesn't signal a radical change of Administration policy, in part precisely because of Gates' reputation as a "team player".

So those are the arguments for optimism - Israel is going to defend itself regardless of what happens in Washington, the Democrats are united in how they feel about Iraq but not on what to do about it, and Gates is enough of a true realist to know how to work with the Bush administration on behalf of its goals.

Who's right? I have no idea. (Taheri sounds a little confused himself when he says: 'One thing is certain. The jubilation expressed in jihadist circles as a result of the Republicans' defeat may be misplaced.' Well, which is it - "certain" or "may be"? But I digress.)

Here's what I am sure of: What happened last Tuesday was part of the democratic process in a free society. And nobody should give up on the struggle based on the results of a single election. We can and must adapt to changing conditions and keep up the fight. This means supporting (real) human rights organizations, humanitarian causes, soldiers' and veterans' aid groups, and pro-democracy groups. It means continuing to expose the lies and distortions of the moribund mainstream media. It means demanding that our colleges and universities teach facts and critical thinking, not multicultural mishmash and anti-American propaganda. And it means continuing to dialog with our neighbors, getting the word out, and standing firm for what's right. Because that's where the battle is being fought.