Morning Report: November 13, 2006

Ripple or sea change? A foreign submarine follows American warships. But has the President's foreign policy vision been deep-sixed?

Chinese sub stalked American fleet. Washington Times: ' Chinese submarine stalked a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group in the Pacific last month and surfaced within firing range of its torpedoes and missiles before being detected, The Washington Times has learned. The surprise encounter highlights China's continuing efforts to prepare for a future conflict with the U.S., despite Pentagon efforts to try to boost relations with Beijing's communist-ruled military. The submarine encounter with the USS Kitty Hawk and its accompanying warships also is an embarrassment to the commander of U.S. forces in the Pacific, Adm. William J. Fallon, who is engaged in an ambitious military exchange program with China aimed at improving relations between the two nations' militaries. Disclosure of the incident comes as Adm. Gary Roughead, commander of the U.S. Navy's Pacific Fleet, is making his first visit to China. The four-star admiral was scheduled to meet senior Chinese military leaders during the weeklong visit, which began over the weekend.' UPDATE: Submariners' blog The Stupid Shall Be Punished has more:

Absent from the article will be any indication that it's not tough at all for a submarine to trail a carrier; what's tough is doing it when they're at a heightened alert level and have a friendly submarine attached to them, without having the friendly submarine ready to take you out at any time. ...

It's even lamer than I thought; the Song-class diesel boat was spotted on the surface about five miles from the Kitty Hawk. So, either the Chinese were trying desperately to let us know that they could get that close to us, or this is another of a series of attempts by the Chinese to send their submarines farther afield where they just can't seem to stay undetected and/or submerged. Since they have nothing to gain by taunting us like that, I vote for the second option.

For some background: the Chinese were probably interested in checking out preparations for the Annualex 18G exercises taking place south of Kyushu.

Read the full post at the link. Keep an eye on Dreams Into Lightning for more updates and details. (Washington Times, TSSBP)

Olmert met with Rice in Washington. Arutz Sheva: 'Prime Minister Ehud Olmert met in Washington on Sunday night with US Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice. The two discussed the possibility of a new political realities vis-a-vis the PA (Palestinian Authority) and the Iranian threat. In addition, the meeting served as a prepatory event ahead of Monday’s meeting between Olmert and US President George W. Bush.' (A7)

Blair wants to work with Syria, Iran. Arutz Sheva: 'British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Monday will call on Syria and Iran to work towards increased regional peace and stability as well as working towards reducing violence in Iraq. According to a Reuters news agency report, the British leader believes the time has come to persuade Tehran and Damascus that if they are not part of the solution, then they are part of the problem, indicating Blair intends to paint a picture showing them the consequences of failing to assist towards bringing peace to the region.' AP via Iran Focus: 'British Prime Minister Tony Blair urged the international community on Monday to engage Iran and Syria to advance the peace process in the Middle East and defended his government's close relationship with the U.S. Blair said the outcome of the Iraq war was central to bringing peace to the Middle East, and the world must make clear to Syria and Iran how they can assist in the process as well as the consequences of hindering it. Blair was to deliver the remarks in a speech later Monday and excerpts of the text were released in advance by his office. The United States has said it was willing to hold direct talks with Iran about Iraq - which would be the most public exchange between the countries in years. But the U.S. does not want to discuss broader subjects such as Iran's contentious nuclear program which Washington suspects is aimed at making weapons.' (A7, Iran Focus)

ThreatsWatch on Lebanon. ThreatsWatch:

Hizballah’s weekend move is believed to be driven by their Syrian sponsors seeking to evade further any prosecutions and likely resulting sanctions. The situation is being placed within the context of a greater ‘cold war’ over influence in the Middle East, principally between the United States and an Iranian-Syrian cabal.

But Hizballah’s quiting the cabinet does not automatically dissolve the government based on their non-participation and Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Saniora rejected the Hizballah resignations. In the United States, the White House issued a statement that criticized the move and condemned Iran and Hizballah, stating that “Hezbollah and Iran remain a dangerous, global nexus of terrorism.”

Hizballah deputy chief Naim Kassem siad that the resignations were but the first step in a Hizballah strategy to assume power within the Lebanese government. “There will be other steps that we will discuss in detail with our allies and which we will announce gradually,” he said.

Full article at the link. (ThreatsWatch)

Olmert on Palestinian plans, Iranian options. Vital Perspective: 'In an interview with Lally Weymouth that was just put to print today, Israeli PM Ehud Olmert insisted he still stands by his plan for peace with the Palestinians and declared that Israel 'has many options' to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat.' He's got a comeback for that question about poll numbers, too. Transcript at the link. (Vital Perspective)

The Mesopotamian on America's Iraq policy. Alaa at The Mesopotamian: 'The only thing that America is guilty of is that of underestimating the viciousness of the enemy, and not so much his military capability; because the enemy’s weapon is not so much military prowess, but evil and viciousness. He specializes in hitting below the belt. He has no rules and no scruples, and will stop at nothing. He is absolutely devoid of any kind of human feeling. To think that you can reason with him or somehow accommodate his wishes and desires is absolute folly and suicide. This was clearly illustrated lately in Iraq when all kinds of overtures and approaches were made in forlorn hopes of appeasing him. This only resulted in boosting his morale and appetite for murder and violence. America seems to have become confused and loosing sight of the fundamentals of the issue and even who the real enemy is. Of course this was aided by a massive propaganda assault aimed directly at the American public from abroad and from within.' Full post at the link. (The Mesopotamian)

Kianoush Sanjari. New Iranian blogger Sayeh Hassan at Shiro-Khorshid Forever writes: 'Kianoush SANJARI, a student activist and blogger was re-arresed on Oct. 7th while preparing reports on protests in support of Ayatollah Broujerdi. He is currently being held in ward 209 of the Notorious Evin prsion and is tortured and interoggated several times a day.' Go to the link for the Amnesty International report. (SKF)

Commentary. Despite having left the Marine Corps with the exalted rank of Corporal, I am not an expert on military matters. But if you read the guys who are, they'll tell you that there are a few things - only a few - that you can count on in war. They'll tell you that war is a fluid, ever-changing thing, and that success depends on persistence, flexibility, and your ability to adapt to new conditions, respond to new threats, and exploit new vulnerabilities on the enemy's side.

That last week's Republican losses were a setback in the war against terrorists and dictators is beyond dispute, though the magnitude and nature of that setback may be subject to debate. Still more serious, as some see it, is the Bush Administration's apparent abandonment of the central tenets of its foreign-policy doctrine. In short, it is a victory of the self-styled "realists" over the neoconservatives.

Here is what Debka has to say:

Bush Prepares Switch on Iraq and Downgrading of US Ties with Jordan and Israel
November 12, 2006, 4:14 PM (GMT+02:00)

Monday, Nov. 13, former US secretary of state James Baker and ex-Congressman Lee Hamilton will present their recommendations on Iraq to President Bush in the Oval Office. Their audience will include an array of top administration officials: Vice President Dick Cheney, national security adviser Stephen Hadley, secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte and CIA Director Gen. Mike Hayden, as well as U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Peter Pace. Incoming defense secretary Robert Gates will attend as a member of the bipartisan committee.

Absentees will include outgoing defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, who stepped down after the Republican’s lost the Nov. 7 midterm to the Democrats over the Iraq war, and the commanders directly running that conflict, Generals John Abizaid and George Casey.

The timing and composition of the conference indicate that the larger decisions are already in the bag with regard to the new US policy on Iraq and a fresh approach to the radical side of the Middle East led by Iran and Syria, mainly at the expense of Jordan and Israel. Monday’s White House conference will be concerned mostly with tying up the last ends and deciding who performs which part of the revised strategy.

DEBKAfile’s Washington sources report that Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert, who is due Monday will be one of the first foreign White House visitors to hear an update on the new policy. He will find he is required to listen rather than speak. Bush will use the occasion to inform him where America’s Iraq policy leaves Israel and the Palestinian dispute.

Now I've recently been reminded from several quarters that Debka is neither omniscient nor infallible, so I pass that caveat on to you. Nevertheless, the bleak report reflects one set of conclusions that can be drawn from the events of the past week. Today's analysis at Stratfor asserts that "the Israelis have real reasons to be concerned" about Washington's plans, which may include cutting a deal with Tehran to end the US/Iran proxy war in Iraq, and perhaps assurances that Israel will not strike Iran on its own.

But as the Stratfor piece notes, Washington may not be in a position to deliver such assurances on Israel's behalf. Meanwhile, Amir Taheri argues that the recent election won't result in an American "Madrid effect" because the word "Iraq" means different things to different people: 'The word "Iraq" brought together a disparate coalition that might unravel, now that the Democrats share greater responsibility in shaping policy.' And Michael Ledeen, channeling James Jesus Angleton, finds that the Gates appointment doesn't signal a radical change of Administration policy, in part precisely because of Gates' reputation as a "team player".

So those are the arguments for optimism - Israel is going to defend itself regardless of what happens in Washington, the Democrats are united in how they feel about Iraq but not on what to do about it, and Gates is enough of a true realist to know how to work with the Bush administration on behalf of its goals.

Who's right? I have no idea. (Taheri sounds a little confused himself when he says: 'One thing is certain. The jubilation expressed in jihadist circles as a result of the Republicans' defeat may be misplaced.' Well, which is it - "certain" or "may be"? But I digress.)

Here's what I am sure of: What happened last Tuesday was part of the democratic process in a free society. And nobody should give up on the struggle based on the results of a single election. We can and must adapt to changing conditions and keep up the fight. This means supporting (real) human rights organizations, humanitarian causes, soldiers' and veterans' aid groups, and pro-democracy groups. It means continuing to expose the lies and distortions of the moribund mainstream media. It means demanding that our colleges and universities teach facts and critical thinking, not multicultural mishmash and anti-American propaganda. And it means continuing to dialog with our neighbors, getting the word out, and standing firm for what's right. Because that's where the battle is being fought.

New Iranian Blogger: Shir o Khorshid

No matter what happens in Washington, our most important responsibility as freedom-loving citizens is to keep working to get the truth out and to keep fighting fascism. Via The Spirit of Man, there's a new Iranian blogger on the scene, Shir o Khorshid Forever (Lion & Sun forever).

In the very first speech Khomeini made when he arrived to Iran he stated that the first thing that needed to be done was to remove the Lion and Sun (Shiro khorshid) from the Iranian flag. The Mullah's have always feared the Shiro Khorshid, so what better name to choose for my blog. My goal is to unite all freedom loving Iranians under this great national symbol.

Sayeh Hassan makes her home in Toronto. Go pay her a visit, and don't forget to bookmark her homepage on your browser.

Sayeh, khosh aamadid!

Morning Report: November 12, 2006

Centrifugal force. A fragile coalition collapses, while a Mideast power boasts of centrifuges and spy cameras. But there are some things they'd rather you didn't know.

Lebanon: Siniora government breaks up. Stratfor (subscription) reports: 'Five Shiite members of Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora's Cabinet resigned Nov. 11 after negotiations about Hezbollah's role in a new government ended without agreement, Shiite party spokesmen said. The ministers who quit represented both Hezbollah and the Amal movement. No date was set for further talks.' Debka: 'Siniora’s Lebanese government breaks up, faces street disturbances after national unity talks collapse Saturday. Five pro-Syrian Hizballah and Amal ministers walked out of Fouad Siniora’s government coalition Saturday, Nov. 11. Another two ministers, supporters of the pro-Syrian president Emil Lahoud, are on their way out, taking with them the government’s parliamentary majority. The two Shiite factions and the pro-Syrian Maronite leader Michel Aoun say their followers will take to the streets as of Sunday for demonstrations in Beirut and other Lebanese towns. It would only take a few shots, say DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources, to spark clashes between Syria’s adherents and opponents in Lebanon. The crisis erupted when Siniora proposed convening the cabinet Monday, Nov. 13, to approve a bill for a special court to try suspects in the Feb. 2005 Hariri assassination. He intended to propose a panel of 5 Lebanese and 3 international judges to be appointed by the UN Secretary General.' Yedioth: 'Lebanese President Emile Lahoud said Sunday that the Lebanese government had lost its legitimacy after the decision of five Shiite ministers to resign.' (Debka, Stratfor, YNet)

Iran claims spy drone photographs US carrier. Gateway Pundit: 'Iran spy drone footage of an American Aircraft Carrier aired on Al-Alam TV today. Iran released footage taken from a spy plane of a US Carrier in the Gulf today on Al-Alam television.' Original link to photos here. Go to the link for more info and comments thread. (Gateway Pundit)

Iran begins installing 3,000 new centrifuges. Jerusalem Post: 'Iran began installing an additional 3,000 centrifuges, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammed Ali Hosseini revealed on Sunday. In October, Iran stepped up uranium enrichment by injecting gas into a second network of 164 centrifuges. Iran produced a small batch of low-enriched uranium - suitable as nuclear fuel but not weapons grade - in February, using its initial cascade of 164 centrifuges at its pilot plant at Natanz.' (JPost)

Witness to Zahra Kazemi murder executed. Azarmehr: 'According to news received from human rights activists in Iran, Madhan Javadolmanshi, one of the prisoners who claimed had witnessed the murder of Iranian born photo-journalist, Zahra Kazemi, was secretly executed back in August this year. Madhan was in prison for more than 10 years on charges of espionage. One of the political prisoners who met Madhan in prison, said Madhan told him, he had heard two of the prison guards by the names of Moussa and Niazi, take part in the horrific beating of Zahra Kazemi, which led to her death.' (Azarmehr)

Commentary. Big Pharaoh links to a very thoughtful analysis of Rumsfeld's successes and failures by Abdul Rahman al-Rashed in Asharq al-Awsat:

It was obvious after the quick military victory and fall of Saddam's regime that most of Iraq supported what happened, as evident by the small number of Saddam's massive military forces that actually stood and fought, while the majority opted to surrender or return to their homes leaving Iraq's barracks deserted and which the American troops occupied with minimal resistance.

But the US Department of Defense then took over the management of Iraqi political affairs ignoring the more qualified centers that were more specialized in political and democratic action. This sparked mass-confusion, with scenes of the looting of government offices, anarchy in the street, the announcement of the occupation governor (Jay Garner), the inclusion of opportunistic Iraqi parties in the civilian government, the bias toward one party against another, the entanglement in Iraqi details, and the drowning in the regional quicksand. It was obvious to the world that Rumsfeld's department went from one crisis to a bigger one at a time when it isolated the State Department until Colin Powell left it in sadness because of his impotence and realization that the Pentagon had entered a dark tunnel and dragged a bigger world behind it.

The Bush Administration will need to work quickly to make use of the new hand it has been dealt.

Morning Report: November 10, 2006

Semper fidelis. As the United States Marine Corps celebrates its 231st year, an amphibious group enters the Persian Gulf while Iran develops its missile program. Elsewhere, citizens stand up against assaults on women. Changing times call on us to be true to the things that matter.

USS Boxer Strike Group enters Persian Gulf. Debka: 'USS Boxer Strike Group, entered the Persian Gulf Thursday, Nov. 9, the largest US landing force to reach this water in a decade. The Boxer Expeditionary Strike Group (BOXESG) now in the US Fifth Fleet area headquartered in Bahrain, consists of Boxer (picture), Amphibious Squadron 5, the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit (Seals), the Coast Guard cutter Midgett and Canadian frigate HMCS Ottawa, as well as the USS Dubuque, USS Comstock, the largest landing craft in the US Navy, USS Bunker Hill and the guided missile destroyers USS Benfold and USS Howard. The Boxer Group has just come from joint maneuvers with the Indian navy in the Arabian Sea opposite the coast of Goa, including large-scale landing practices. The group’s commander, Capt. David Angood said that if “anything important happens in the real-world environment, the task force will deal with it in the most efficient manner.” DEBKAfile’s military sources report that the arrival of Boxer in the Persian Gulf coincided with the USS Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group’s passage through the Suez Canal on its way from the Gulf to the Mediterranean. It is the first time that a US naval strike force is accompanied by a coast guard unit. Its vessels are equipped and their crews trained for rapid rescue and aid missions to damaged ships and wounded crewmen. Their presence in the task force indicates that the Boxer strike group is prepared for Iranian attack by sea, air, submarine, sea-to-sea missiles or depth mines.' (Debka)

Israel's Deputy Defense Minister: Iran attack may be necessary. Ha'Aretz: 'Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh suggested in comments published Friday that Israel might be forced to launch a military strike against Iran's nuclear program - the clearest statement yet of this possibility from a high-ranking Israeli official. "I am not advocating an Israeli pre-emptive military action against Iran and I am aware of its possible repercussions," Sneh told The Jerusalem Post daily. "I consider it a last resort. But even the last resort is sometimes the only resort," he said. Sneh's tough talk is the boldest to date by a high-ranking Israeli official. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and other leaders frequently discuss the Iranian threat in grave terms, but stop short of discussing military action against Tehran.' Debka: 'In a Jerusalem Post interview ahead of prime minister Ehud Olmert’s White House talks next week, Sneh said he is not advocating a pre-emptive Israeli operation, but considers it a last resort. “Even a last resort is sometimes the only resort.” ... The newly-appointed second in command at the Israeli defense ministry stressed that his priority was "preparing the IDF for victory in the next round with Iran and its proxies." High on the list was the need to improve the country's defense systems. "We developed and produced the Arrow, the only system that can intercept nuclear missiles. Depending on the altitude when intercepted, the warheads do not detonate. But Israel needs to substantially improve its indigenous long-range capacities."' (Ha'Aretz, Debka)

Iranian missile threat. Washington Times via Iran Focus:

As Secretary of Defense-designate Robert Gates prepares for his confirmation hearings, he will need to address one of the most serious but underappreciated security threats of the post-September 11 era: the burgeoning threat from Iran's ballistic-missile arsenal, which is growing much more lethal thanks to considerable assistance from North Korea. Today, Iran has ballistic missiles capable of striking U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf and Iraq, where nearly 150,000 U.S. soldiers are stationed. Its missiles can also reach targets in Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, and may be able to reach parts of Germany and Italy.

As it becomes apparent that, at least for now, the United States, the Europeans and the international community in general want to avoid confrontation with Iran, the Islamist regime, emboldened, is becoming more aggressive and confrontational. For the past nine days, Iran has been staging military exercises, which may have included test-firing of Shahab missiles capable of targeting U.S. bases in the Gulf. On Sunday, the commander in chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guards, Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, declared that the Guards had trained thousands of troops for suicide missions in the event that Iran was attacked. ...

Several years ago, Iran, in an effort to placate Europeans worried about the Iranians targeting them, said that the Shahab-3 would be the last version and it would would not build a follow-on with a longer range. Subsequently, the Iranians announced a Shahab-4 exists, but that it is just a satellite launcher, not a ballistic missile. But, according to Uzi Rubin, former head of Israel's Arrow missile program, a "satellite launcher" is really a covert intercontinental ballistic missile. All the Iranians have to do, he said in an interview with IranWatch newsletter, "is orbit satellites and make threats against America once in a while. That will be enough to tell the United States that it could be hit by an ICBM."

Full article at the link. (Iran Focus)

Iraqi forces claim arrest of al-Qaeda figure. AP via Jerusalem Post: 'Iraqi security forces said they arrested the head of an al-Qaida cell in a western Iraqi city on Friday. Acting on a tip-off, soldiers descended on a building in the city of Rawah, 275 kilometers (175 miles) northwest of Baghdad, where they arrested local al-Qaida commander Abu Muhayyam al-Masri, whose name is a pseudonym meaning, "the Egyptian," a Defense Ministry official said. Aides Abu Issam al-Libi, or "the Libyan," and Abu Zaid al-Suri, "the Syrian," were also arrested among nine other members of the cell, said the official, who asked that his name not be used because he was not authorized to speak to the media. The official said al-Suri confessed to being responsible for organizing at least one suicide bombing in Baghdad. He said the raid also netted a large quantity of weapons.' (JPost)

Egypt: Photos of anti-harassment demonstration. Sandmonkey has pictures of yesterday's rally against sexual harassment in Egypt. 'The Police started besieging the protest, but they didn't do anything to harm anyone. It was an intimidation tactic more than anything, prompted by the shift in chants from just anti-sexual harrassment to anti-government. But for all intents and purposes, it was a success.' A Dreams Into Lightning roundup on the incident is at the link. (Sandmonkey)

Commentary. I won't try to read the tea leaves regarding the recent Congressional elections. What has happened, certainly, is that Congress has passed from a Republican to a Democratic majority, and Rumsfeld and Bolton are on their way out. Beyond that, I'm not sure what it means in the big picture.

The Republicans (among whom I'm still proud to count myself a member) have had the luxury of GOP control of the White House and both houses of congress until now. This week, the voters chose to give a Congressional majority to the Democrats, and Republican leaders must now adapt to that reality. And if they do not have the flexibility to adapt to the shifting landscape of domestic politics, they are not fit to lead us in the war on terror.

What will matter in the years ahead is our commitment to the basics: individual freedom, equality for women, and security for America and the civilized world. I'm not the only one who has noted the irony of these essentially liberal values being defended by the more conservative of America's major political parties. And despite the ravings of some on the far left, there are also pro-Israel Democrats like the folks at Pro-Semite Undercover. Perhaps we are entering a new phase, in which political liberalism will re-emerge as a meaningful ally in the fight against fascism and terror while enriching the debate on both stragegy and domestic issues. This would be a good thing.

Women and the Middle East

A roundup of recent items on Middle Eastern women.

Saudi rape victim gets 90 lashes - ODIE. 'Here's the deal: A woman was gang-raped in Riyadh. The Saudi courts have just sentenced her to receive 90 lashes. For what? Being in a car alone with an unmarried man.'

Saudi orgies blamed on the West - BP. '"Our youths are not, unfortunately, educated on the importance of leading a secure married life," said Hassan Al Shelabi, the center director. "While the parents are keen to give their children luxury homes, rich food and fashionable clothing they neglect to prepare the children for a healthy married life and being good husbands or wives." Al Shelabi said his center has received reports of wife swapping, of husbands pressuring wives to sleep with their friends and of orgies. He said these requests reflect the influence of Western culture, easily accessible on satellite television or the Internet. ... Yes yes, have orgies and blame the West. Have orgies and blame Bush.'

Father gets 10 years in the US for FGM on his daughter - FFE. 'A man has been sentenced to 10 years in jail for the genital mutilation of his two-year-old daughter, in what is said to be first such case in the US. A US women's rights group described the verdict as a victory against female genital mutilation worldwide. Prosecutors said he used scissors to remove his daughter's clitoris in 2001. ... In Egypt, thousands of girls are having their genitals mutilated every year and no one is held responsible for this abhorrent crime!! FGM is one of the most rampant problems in Egypt. Not one single direct legislation was stipulated to punish those responsible those crimes against innocent little girls. A crime described as irreversibe against any woman!'

Morning Report: November 9, 2006

The new face of war. The US gets a new defense chief, and a terrorist group picks a new set of targets. Off the coast of India, Davy Jones may be guarding some interesting secrets.

Bush accepts Rumsfeld's resignation, names CIA's Robert Gates as Defense Secretary. The Belmont Club links Austin Bay: ' I think the resignation wasn’t entirely contingent on the election– though the Democratic win made Rumsfeld resignation a certainty. Robert Gates (currently president of Texas A&M University) has worked with James Baker on the “War on Terror” strategy evaluation. The Baker ”bi-partisan” political fall-back position for prosecuting the war was already in the works. ... One of the very smart young officers I know suggests the resignation is political prep for prosecuting the war even more vociferously. I think he’s on to something.' Debka: 'In his first statement after the mid-term election, the US President said he and Rumsfeld had agreed it was time for new leadership at the Pentagon and a fresh perspective needed for the Iraqi war. He praised the departing secretary. “I understand many Americans yesterday voiced their displeasure with the Iraq situation. But we cannot accept defeat. Defeat is not an option in Iraq. Our enemies should not see this as weakness. The people of Iraq can be sure America will stand by you. If we leave Iraq before the job is down, our country will be more at risk.”' In from the Cold has this:

Regarding Mr. Gates, he is a good man but the wrong one for the job. He spent most of his professional life at the CIA before retiring and becoming the President of Texas A&M University. Robert Gates certainly knows the intelligence end of military affairs, but his expertise ends there. Moreover, his management skills as DCI weren't particularly impressive, and as an analyst, he was part of a CIA team that consistently got it wrong on their assessments of the former Soviet Union. Dr. Gates is a very bright man and strikes me as a shoo-in confirmation, someone with no ties to the current Pentagon regime. That's probably a necessity in today's political climate, but that doesn't make him the right choice for DoD.

Greyhawk cites Gates' links with Zbigniew Brzezinski, the Council on Foreign Relations, and a book calling for a "new approach" on Iran. ThreatsWatch:

The nomination of Gates likely telegraphs President Bush’s intent to implement one of the Baker Commission’s options (formally known as the Iraq Study Group) for the future of Iraq. ... The outlook for Jihadis just got decidedly better. The outlook for Iraqis is frightening.

Stratfor (subscription) sees Rumsfeld's failing as one of flexibility:

... he refused to shift course in midstream. Rumsfeld was designing a military that could defeat state power by the precise applications of force while minimizing the exposure of U.S. forces; but the U.S.-jihadist war brought to the table a foe that thrived in chaotic regions where state control was weak or nonexistent. Rumsfeld's plan could overturn the Taliban or Saddam Hussein's government, but it could not muster the manpower necessary to impose order on the resulting chaos.

The analysis concludes that 'Gates is a placeholder -- a competent placeholder for sure, but a placeholder nonetheless.' (various)

Hamas: Threat of attacks on Americans. Counterterrorism Blog: 'n the wake of reports that an Israeli tank strike killed 18 people in the Gaza Strip, Hamas' military wing issued a call for Muslims around the world to attack American targets. This is dangerous for several reasons. One is that Hamas has a broad financial infrastructure inside the United States and enjoys some support among parts of the U.S. Islamic community, so there would be little need infiltrate operators. There could be people already here willing to carry out such attacks. A second reason is that Hamas has traditionally not advocated attacks on the United States. But this call by the Hamas military wing is unambiguous: "America is offering political, financial and logistic cover for the Zionist occupation crimes, and it is responsible for the Beit Hanoun massacre. Therefore, the people and the nation all over the globe are required to teach the American enemy tough lessons," Hamas' military wing said in a statement sent to The Associated Press.' At his blog, Douglas Farah adds that 'this is worrisome because Hamas is a direct offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Brotherhood offers Hamas a worldwide network for moving money, maintaining secure communications links and moving weapons.' The fact that the statement does not distinguish between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims is in keeping with the Muslim Brotherhood's ecumenical approach. (CTB, Douglas Farah)

India intercepts Iran-bound North Korea freighter. ThreatsWatch:

A North Korean ship bound for Iran has been detained and inspected in India according to the Mumbai Mirror. Having run into mechanical problems and become disabled, the North Korean freighter apparently drifted into Indian waters where it was boarded and then towed to Bombay docks. The ship, however, was empty when Indian crews reached it.

“What is most suspicious is the fact that though it is a cargo ship, they are not carrying any consignment or goods,” said a Coast Guard officer. The authorities are now examining the freighter to find if any contraband is hidden somewhere.

TW concludes: 'If the Titanic can be found on the ocean’s floor, perhaps a more curious payload now lies on the floor of the Indian Ocean near where this ship broke down. It’s likely a matter of the will to discover it.' Read the full article at the link. (ThreatsWatch)

Poll: Americans support Israel, sanctions on Iran. Vital Perspective: 'The Israel Project Bipartisan POS/Greenberg poll on Israel and Iran shows that Americans overwhelmingly support taking action against Iran if it continues to bar IAEA inspectors from its nuclear facilities, as well as continued support for Israel as opposed to the Palestinians.' Facts and figures at the link. (VP)

Commentary. An election is a snapshot; an appointment is but a hastily drawn sketch. The true picture is drawn and redrawn daily by the people whose lives make, and are made by, the course of human events. New faces in Congress and the Defense Department matter; but what matters more is the mind, the will, and the soul of the people. It is there that the Long War will be won.

Morning Report: November 8, 2006

US elections favor Democrats. Democrats won majority control of the House last night, and probably the Senate too although that's still up in the air. Here's a short roundup.

Democrats take US House of Representatives. Fox: 'The Democratic Party has captured the House of Representatives and is two extremely close races away from winning control of the U.S. Senate, as well. In Virginia, incumbent Republican Sen. George Allen was trailing Democratic challenger Jim Webb by only about 7,800 votes out of the more than 2.3 million cast, with indications the final outcome might not be known for days, and could lead to legal challenges. Republican and Democrat party officials dispatched lawyers to Virginia to observe the continuing tally Wednesday morning of uncounted absentee ballots, as well as canvass votes counted on Election Day.' (Fox)

Lieberman wins in Connecticut. So, is it still a referendum on the Iraq war? That's what the media have been telling us about the Lieberman-Lamont senate race. Here's the Hartford Courant: 'Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman won re-election Tuesday night as a man without a party, overcoming the virulent anti-war sentiment that had cost him the Democratic nomination in August. With a $17.5 million war chest and Republican support, Lieberman rebounded to defeat Democrat Ned Lamont, a businessman who spent $16 million of his own fortune to challenge a co-author of the resolution authorizing the U.S. invasion of Iraq. A triumphant Lieberman offered no conciliatory words to the Democrats who abandoned him over Iraq, calling his election a victory of "the mainstream over the extreme." "We never wavered in our beliefs or in our purpose, did we?" Lieberman said. "And we never gave up, did we?"' Free Frank Warner: 'However the final count goes in yesterday’s U.S. Senate races, Sen. Joe Lieberman will make all the difference. Without Lieberman, the Democrats would have 49 or 50 of the Senate’s 100 votes. With Lieberman, they’ll have 50 or 51 votes. Without Lieberman, the Democrats would be tempted to abandon Iraq. With Lieberman, they’ll stick to the liberal cause of Iraq’s liberation.' (Courant, FFW)

South Dakota rejects abortion ban. MSNBC makes it short and sweet: 'In a triple setback for conservatives, South Dakotans rejected a law that would have banned virtually all abortions, Arizona became the first state to defeat an amendment to ban gay marriage and Missouri approved a measure backing stem cell research.' Feministe: 'The margin, according to CNN, is 44% in favor, 56% opposed. Much closer than I would have liked, but South Dakota is a red state and overturning an act of the legislature is not inconsequential.' (MSNBC, Feministe)

Arizona rejects gay marriage ban, seven other states approve. Gay.com: 'Arizona on Tuesday became the first state ever to defeat a constitutional ban on same-sex marriage by popular vote, as returns showed the anti-gay proposal losing. With nearly all precincts reporting, the ban was defeated, 51 percent to 49 percent. Amendments to ban same-sex marriage won approval Tuesday in Colorado, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin, seven of the eight states with the issue on the ballot.' (Gay.com)

Commentary. The Belmont Club: 'The coming months will be ones of great opportunity. Reality provides one very powerful service: it shows what does not work. And it provides clues to what will work. A lot of the effort should consist of thinking out approaches from first principles. One obvious effect will be to shrivel the deadwood -- intellectual and otherwise -- out of the way. We are all free in a way that we couldn't otherwise be without today.'

Exactly. I haven't been stressing the election (though I'll admit to stressing over it) because what matters in the long run is the basics: the world of values, ideas, and information. The war against terrorists and fascists in the Middle East, and their enablers in the Western media and academia, will continue. All of us have a part to play. Last night's setback for the Republicans means we'll have to work a little harder. So let's get to it.

Log Cabin: Why the Republicans Lost

Log Cabin Republicans news release:

“Republicans lost this election because independent voters abandoned the GOP,” said Log Cabin Executive Vice President Patrick Sammon. “Social conservatives drove the GOP’s agenda the last several years. Their divisive agenda alienated the mainstream Republicans and independents who determined this election’s outcome. Social conservatives should take responsibility for this loss.”

“Democrats didn’t win because of anything they stood for. They won because of Republican mistakes,” said Sammon. “GOP leaders lost sight of what brought our Party to power in 1994. Limited government, lower spending, high ethical standards and accountability, and other unifying GOP principles attracted a broad coalition of support including fiscal conservatives, social conservatives, mainstream Republicans, libertarians, and independents. Now we’ve lost the U.S. House because Party leaders turned their backs on the GOP’s core principles and catered only to social conservatives.” ...

A failure to articulate a clear policy on the Iraq war was also a major factor in this defeat. And the ethical problems of some Congressmen caused voters to turn on the GOP. “These results show us that character counts. Our Party must nominate candidates who have the integrity worthy of their office,” said Sammon.

Full text at the link. Sammon also congratulates Log Cabin allies Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R-CA), Gov. Jodi Rell (R-CT), Gov. Linda Lingle (R-HI), and Congresswoman Deborah Pryce (R-OH) on their victories.

MK Eldad: Marchers' Rights Are Worshipers' Rights

A religious Knesset member argues that if freedom of movement applies to the Gay Pride march in Jerusalem, it must also apply to Jewish worshipers on the Temple Mount. Works for me.

Arutz Sheva:

Knesset Member Aryeh Eldad wrote to the attorney general today demanding that Jewish worshippers on the Temple Mount be accorded the same civil rights protection as homosexual parade marchers.

In a letter sent to Attorney General Menachem Mazuz on Tuesday, MK Eldad (National Union-NRP) called for the state's chief legal counsel to apply the principles he elucidated regarding the Gay Pride Parade in Jerusalem to the rights of Jews to worship on the Temple Mount. As of now, police enforce a ban on Jewish worship on the Mount, Judaism's holiest site, due to threats of violence on the part of Muslims, who were allowed to maintain jurisdiction over the mosques on the Mount even after Israel conquered it in 1967. The ban is in effect despite Israeli lower court decisions stating that, in principle, Jews should have freedom of access and of worship on the Temple Mount. ...

On Monday, Atty. Gen. Mazuz rejected a police recommendation to ban the parade, saying, "We have to make a decision, either we give in to threats or we deal with them. We have to exert efforts to find an equation so that it can be secured." Mazuz ordered the police to work together with representatives of the Open House Gay pride organization to find a way to hold the event "with a modest character."

Further addressing the apparent inconsistency in the application of the law in the capital, Eldad pressed the attorney general: "You support the 'modest' right to protest of the [homosexual] community in Jerusalem, but you must surely know that a Jew caught standing with closed eyes and murmuring in a whisper is ejected from the Temple Mount."

Commentary. I like this. Eldad may not be thrilled about the court decision ruling that the gay parade can continue, but he understood that the principle behind it could work in his favor too. And he's right: If threats of violence are not permitted to deter the Gay Pride event, then why should the Jews' established freedom to worship on the Temple Mount be held hostage to threats?

For all related posts, please go to this category archive: Jerusalem Pride 2006.

Jerusalem Gay Pride Parade Reconsidered

Last week, I argued against the Gay Pride parade in Jerusalem. In this post, I'm going to look at it from a different angle.

In my previous post, I asserted that

a gay pride parade in Jerusalem is a confrontational, provocative gesture. It will do nothing to improve the attitude of straight Israelis toward gay people.

My reasoning was that forcing the issue of a gay pride parade in Jerusalem would cause a backlash among moderate Israelis which would result in a net setback, rather than an advance, for gay rights in Israel. And this may very well be true.

But I think what was really bothering me about the parade was the knowledge that certain orthodox Jewish fanatics would resort to all kinds of thuggish tactics to protest the event. Last year, a fundamentalist fruitcake named Yishai Schlissel stabbed and injured three people at the 2005 Gay Pride event in Jerusalem. He was convicted of attempted murder. Yediot:

The Jerusalem District Court on Tuesday convicted Yishai Schlissel, a resident of the ultra-Orthodox community of Kiryat Sefer, of attempted murder and severe injury for stabbing and injuring three people at a gay parade. About nine months ago, Schlissel arrived at the Gay Pride Parade which was held in Jerusalem, carrying a knife. He stabbed three people, who suffered light to moderate injuries. “I came to murder on behalf of God. We can’t have such abomination in the country,” Schlissel said during his police interrogation.

JPost:

According to the charge sheet, the haredi assailant purchased the knife ahead of time in order to carry out the attack at the June 30 parade. "The accused displayed extreme fanatical behavior, and made up his mind not to let the parade end in peace at any cost," the judges wrote in their ruling. "He had no tolerance, not even minimal, toward the people who attended the parade because his worldview rejects any compromise. The accused was fully conscious and ready to pay a heavy personal price for his acts," the judges added.

Now this nutball was an extreme case, but not by far. As a Jew, I wince at this sort of thing. It means Jews looking bad in front of the whole world. And that was something I didn't want to see.

(Full disclosure: I was a practicing Orthodox Jew for a few years. And while I'm no longer frum, I do retain a considerable respect for the tradition of Rabbinic Judaism - as well as a certain sentimental attachment.)

But, you know what? The world does not revolve around what I want to see or don't want to see. Nobody expects the haredi Jews not to object to a gay parade in Jerusalem; that's a given. How they choose to express their disapproval, however, is up to them.

Looking back, I notice that I used the word "provocative". Well, of course we should try to avoid "provoking" people, right? But the idea of a "provocation" has a funny way of shifting the burden of responsibility. One must, after all, agree to be provoked. I'm not going to start talking about those Danish Mohammed cartoons, because I think you get the point.

So, if gay people march in Jerusalem, it will get ugly. Well, life is ugly. We have to deal with it.

I'm going to be following the Jerusalem Pride controversy closely here at Dreams Into Lightning. Stay tuned.

Morning Report: November 7, 2006

Decision day. An election-day roundup.

Syria: Countdown to war. Debka:

Syrian FM Walid Mualem threatens to start “countdown to war” with Israel failing progress on peace track. EBKAfile cites Mualem’s words at a joint news conference in Damascus with Norwegian foreign minister Jonas Gahr Steore Monday, Nov. 6, as an explicit threat of war to be launched against Israel at a time of Syria’s choosing. The Syrian minister welcomed a debate going on in Israel about whether to resume negotiations with Damascus on the Golan Heights, which Syria lost to Israel in the Six-Day War. He went on to say: “We now have a window of opportunity of several months. If there is no progress, the countdown will begin for a new Syrian-Israeli war.” On Nov. 3, DEBKA-Net-Weekly 276b> revealed that on Oct. 30 British PM Tony Blair had sent his senior political adviser Nigel Sheinwald (picture) on a mission to Damascus, hoping to turn the coming British exit from Iraqi towns round as leverage for a comeback to the Arab world and make up for his failed Iraq policy. One of the items in the British official’s briefcase for his meeting with president Bashar Asad and Mualem was a secret message from Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert: an offer to start peace talks. It was posted through Blair. The Syrian president sent a return message to the British prime minister: Tell Olmert I’m ready to talk. This move connected with a broader deal: Damascus would break away from its pact with Tehran in return for normal relations with the West. Israel-Syrian talks would kick off this process. Both parties agreed that the Sheinwald mission and the business they discussed would be kept secret. No sooner had the British emissary flown out of Damascus, when the Syrians leaked word of his visit together with the Syrian president’s rejection of Olmert’s offer to talk, barring a prior Israeli commitment to cede the Golan. This was not what the Syrian president had told his British vistor. When Sheinwald arrived in London, he found out that Asad had been stringing him along before killing the Blair initiative stone cold. All along the Syrian ruler had kept faith with Tehran.

Read the rest at the link. (Debka)

Operation Autumn Clouds ends. Vital Perspective:

Early this morning IDF infantry, engineering and armored forces completed their operations against terror infrastructure and rocket launching infrastructure in Beit Hanoun to prevent and disrupt the launching of rockets at Israel. Over the course of the operation:

Forces conducted searches throughout the town in order to locate terrorists, gunmen and weaponry.
Dozens of armed gunmen were killed in aerial attacks and clashes with soldiers.
IDF soldiers uncovered large amounts of weaponry including rocket launchers, anti-tank missile launchers, grenades, explosive devices, AK-47 assault rifles, various ammunitions types, observation equipment and more.
The IDF targeted and hit 9 rocket launching cells, some of them also responsible for rocket manufacturing. ...

Full post at the link. (Vital Perspective)

Europe's Muslim Brotherhood. Counterterrorism Blog: 'In 1990 Yusuf al-Qaradawi, an influential Sunni scholar and the unofficial theological leader of the international Muslim Brotherhood (al Ikhwan al Muslimoun), published a book called Priorities of the Islamic Movement in the Coming Phase. This 186-page treatise can be considered the most recent manifesto of the Islamist revivalist movement. ... After examining the situation of the “Islamic Movement” throughout the Muslim world, the dissertation devotes significant attention to the situation of Muslims living in the West. ... Having affirmed the necessity of the Islamist movement in the West, Qaradawi proceeds to present a plan of operation. The Egyptian-born scholar openly calls for the creation of a separate society for Muslims within the West. While he highlights the importance of keeping open a dialogue with non-Muslims, he advocates the establishment of Muslim communities with “their own religious, educational and recreational establishments.” He urges his fellow revivalists to try “to have your small society within the larger society” and “your own ‘Muslim ghetto.’”' (CTB)

Egyptian blogger arrested. Or Does It Explode: 'Last October, Adelkarim Nabil Soliman got some attention for when Egyptian police interrogated him over blogposts critiquing Al Azhar University, where he was enrolled as a student. Soliman soon got booted out of school. And now he's been taken into custody for refusing to disavow his posts. A new blog is chronicling Soliman's arrest: http://www.freekareem.org. ' (ODIE)

Amarji's latest. A cancer-free Amarji shares his gut reactions to latest developments: 'The recent White House meeting with representatives of the National Salvation Front was, contrary to attempts at undermining it by many, quite a success and indicated a growing willingness by members within the current administration to assume a more open posture towards one of the most important and pragmatic Syrian opposition groups in exile. This openness is not restricted to members of the National Security Council. Indeed, and over the last few months, we have had quieter endorsements from all relevant decision-making centers within the administration. No, this does not mean that the Administration will be holding direct talks with Khadddam and Bayanouni soon, for tactical and ideological reasons on both sides. But contacts with the NSF through its liberal members will now take place regularly and on a high enough level to make it worth our while at the NSF to make point of acknowledging them at this stage. So, people can denounce, speculate, object, interpret, analyze and dismiss the fact and nature of these contacts to their hearts’ content, but, and at the end of the day, the fact cannot be denied: there is indeed a new kid on the block these days, a new player that, whether people like it or not, and for better or for worse, will make quite on an impact on the scene of Syrian external opposition. ...' (Amarji)

Commentary. Here's Orson Scott Card: 'There is only one issue in this election that will matter five or ten years from now, and that's the War on Terror. And the success of the War on Terror now teeters on the fulcrum of this election.' Americans, you know what you need to do. Now go vote.

Neocons Blast Vanity Fair

Leading neoconservatives set the record straight in National Review Online:

On Friday, Vanity Fair issued a press release highlighting excerpts of a piece in their January issue on “neoconservative” supporters of the war in Iraq who today, unsurprisingly, have some negative things to say about how the war is going and how the Bush administration has been handling it.

In the wake of the press release – which has gotten considerable play on the Internet – some of those “neoconservatives” highlighted in the article have responded to the excerpts and its misrepresentations, in some cases, of what they said. We collect some of those reactions — including from Eliot Cohen, David Frum, Frank Gaffney, Michael Ledeen, Richard Perle, and Michael Rubin — below.

Eliot A. Cohen
... I stand by what I said, however, which is no different from what I have said in other venues, including in articles in the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal as well a in a variety of print and television interviews over several years. Indeed, insofar as I have any personal regrets as I look back on my public statements about the war, it is for not having spoken up even more often and forcefully than I already have.

David Frum
... My most fundamental views on the war in Iraq remain as they were in 2003: The war was right, victory is essential, and defeat would be calamitous. And that to my knowledge is the view of everybody quoted in the release and the piece: Adelman, Cohen, Ledeen, Perle, Pletka, Rubin, and all the others. ...

Frank Gaffney
... Perhaps we should have known better, given Vanity Fair’s generally venal character. We were encouraged to overlook that sordid record, however, on the grounds that the author would be Rose — a journalist who had earned a reputation of late for fair and honest treatment of matters such as this. ... For the record, I remain convinced that the liberation of Iraq was a necessary and laudable measure to prevent a megalomaniac from handing off to terrorists weapons of mass destruction for the purpose of attacking us and our allies. Contrary to popular belief, the U.S. government has proof that Saddam Hussein had precisely such plans ready to implement.

Michael Ledeen
My experience with Vanity Fair is even more extensive than David Frum ‘s, having been the subject of a 30,000 word screed that ends with the author’s bland confession “there is no evidence for any of this.” So I am not at all surprised to see the editors yank words from me, David, and others out of context and totally misdescribe what we think, do and feel. I do not feel “remorseful,” since I had and have no involvement with our Iraq policy. I opposed the military invasion of Iraq before it took place and I advocated — as I still do — support for political revolution in Iran as the logical and necessary first step in the war against the terror masters.

Readers of NRO know well how disappointed I have been with our failure to address Iran, which was, and remains, the central issue, and it has been particularly maddening to live through extended periods when our children were in battle zones where Iranian-supported terrorists were using Iranian-made weapons against Americans, Iraqis and Afghans. I have been expressing my discontent for more than three years. So much for a change of heart dictated by developments on the ground.

Richard Perle
Vanity Fair has rushed to publish a few sound bites from a lengthy discussion with David Rose. Concerned that anything I might say could be used to influence the public debate on Iraq just prior to Tuesday’s election, I had been promised that my remarks would not be published before the election.

I should have known better than to trust the editors at Vanity Fair who lied to me and to others who spoke with Mr. Rose. Moreover, in condensing and characterizing my views for their own partisan political purposes, they have distorted my opinion about the situation in Iraq and what I believe to be in the best interest of our country.

I believe it would be a catastrophic mistake to leave Iraq, as some are demanding, before the Iraqis are able to defend their elected government. As I told Mr. Rose, the terrorist threat to our country, which is real, would be made much worse if we were to make an ignominious withdrawal from Iraq. ...

Michael Rubin
Have those interviewed changed their mind about the war? I have not, no matter how self-serving partisan pundits or lazy journalists want to spin it. I can’t speak for others. Again, despite the punditry out there, the so-called neocons are not Borg.

Now, for my own quote: I absolutely stand by what I said. Too many people in Washington treat foreign policy as a game. Many Washington-types who speak about Iraq care not about the U.S. servicemen or about the Iraqis, but rather focus on U.S. electoral politics. I am a Republican, but whether the Republicans or Democrats are in power, Washington’s word must mean something. ...

Now that you've read the excerpts, please go read the whole article at the link.