Morning Report: October 19, 2006

Good news, bad news. Bad news first: The Islamic fascists may be crazy, but they're not stupid. Now the good news: They're still crazy.

Friday October 20th warning. Alan Peters in Anti-Mullah: 'Buzz in CT (Counterterrorism)/security community is Friday may be big day of violence as Muslims celebrate Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day -- when Big Mo (Mohammed) was supposedly wafted up to Paradise from al-Aqsa mosque. Friday is also juma prayer (special prayer). Then Eid Fetr (Muslim holiday you've seen the U.S. postal stamp) follows on Tuesday. CIFA (Counterintelligence Field Activity): Pentagon looking for even higher terror op tempo in Iraq and Afghanistan on those 2 days. Additionally, increase in Iraq violence intended to drive USA elections into Democrat hands and by terrorists perceptions to their advantage, also expected.' (Anti-Mullah)

Ahmad Batebi back in jail. Iranian activist Ahmad Batebi (the T-shirt guy) is back in jail after two days. Azarmehr: 'Ahmad Batebi, Iranian student and prisoner of conscience and honorary vice-president of the NUSis back in jail after two days leave. Batebi was released after having spent several weeks in solitary confinement. The condition of his leave from prison was a large bail and the promise not to talk to media.' (Azarmehr)

Bank Saderat president fired. Iran Focus: 'The head of an Iranian bank which the United States recently imposed tough sanctions against has been sacked, state-run press reported earlier this week. Hamid Borhani, who headed Bank Saderat Iran, was fired for failing to cooperate with the government on credit provisions that have been pledged by hard-line Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as part of his populist platform. Borhani was appointed chairman and managing director of Bank Saderat Iran in November 2005. ... “Bank Saderat facilitates Iran's transfer of hundreds of millions of dollars to Hezbollah and other terrorist organisations each year. We will no longer allow a bank like Saderat to do business in the American financial system, even indirectly”, said Stuart Levey, Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence (TFI).' (Iran Focus)

Iran prevented Gilad Shalit release, report says. JTA: 'Iran reportedly bribed the top Hamas leader to prevent the release of an Israeli soldier being held in the Gaza Strip.
Israel and the Palestinian Authority were recently on the verge of sealing a deal for the recovery of Corporal Gilad Shalit, but an Iranian delegation paid Hamas´s supreme leader, Khaled Meshaal, $50 million to scupper it, Yediot Aharonot reported Thursday.' Meanwhile, Debka reports the names of five al-Qaeda-linked terrorists connected to the kidnapping: 'They were identified in the course of an investigation into the murder on Sept 16 of Mahmoud Abbas’ top security officer Col. Jad Tayeh for which they were also responsible. DEBKAfile reveals their names for the first time: The Al Qaeda cell commander is Muataz Durmush, cousin of Zakariah Durmush of the Popular Resistance Committees of Gaza. The others ae Mahmoud Bastal; Taher Atawa; Ahmed Azzam and Ibrahim Kahil. They sign The Muslim Army on all their bulletins on the kidnapped Israeli soldier. Senior Israeli officers complain that the al Qaeda cell is operating unscathed by Israel, Egypt or the Palestinian Authority’s security services, a sign that affairs in the Gaza Strip have slipped out of control.' (JTA, Debka)

Human Rights Watch: Hezbollah fired cluster bombs at Israel. Yes, you read that right: HRW is shocked to learn that the evil zionists weren't the only ones using cluster bombs. Ha'Aretz: 'Hezbollah fired cluster rockets into civilian areas of northern Israel during the recent war, Human Rights Watch said in a report on Thursday. Israel has itself been condemned by the New York-based group and other campaigners for its use of cluster bombs during the 34-day conflict. Human Rights Watch said it had been told by Israeli police of more than 100 documented cases of cluster rocket strikes. Hezbollah made no immediate comment. "We are disturbed to discover that not only Israel but also Hezbollah used cluster munitions in their recent conflict, at a time when many countries are turning away from this kind of weapon precisely because of its impact on civilians," said Steve Goose of Human Right Watch in the report.' (Ha'Aretz)

Harper: Never neutral. Via Israellycool, the National Post reports: 'Prime Minister Stephen Harper mounted a vigorous defence on Wednesday of his government’s Middle East policy. Speaking to a B’nai Brith dinner, Harper made no apologies for his government siding with the Jewish state during this summer’s fighting between Israeli troops and Hezbollah guerrillas. “When it comes to dealing with a war between Israel and a terrorist organization, this country and this government cannot and will never be neutral,” Harper said in a speech to the Jewish human rights group.' (Israellycool, National Post)

Sudanese regime, army directing genocide. Or Does It Explode: 'Ex-Janjaweed Reveals the Obvious: Sudanese Regime and Army are Directing Genocide. "I tell you one fact. Janjaweed don't make decisions, the orders come from the government." The BBC is treating this as a bombshell. And in a way it is. But on the other hand, the ex-janjaweed fighter - currently seeking asylum in England - tells us nothing we didn't know before. Here's the gist: A man identified only as "Ali" told the BBC's Newsnight programme that Sudanese ministers gave express orders for the activities of his unit, which included rape and killing children...' Here's the BBC link. (ODIE, BBC)

Commentary. Apparently the mullahs believe that a terror attack on the US before an election will help them. Maybe. But then again, Ahmadinejad seems to think he can win a confrontation with the United States. Again, maybe, provided you accept a definition of "winning" that includes the concept of "going out in a blaze of glory". James Lewis at The American Thinker thinks Ahmadinejad is setting a trap:
It’s quite likely that Ahmadinejad is looking forward to his own martyrdom, as part of a larger plan to draw other nations into disastrous warfare. Ahmadinejad may actually believe, as Mao Zedong once said, that Iran can sustain multiple nuclear attacks while the West could only tolerate one.

There are military and strategic answers to these dilemmas. But they should be planned for with the utmost psychological and military care. This guy is not your normal looney-tunes leader; he’s Pol Pot with nukes, rather than Brezhnev or even Kim. Unlike Kim, he may not care if he survives. And he may have a fullfledged backup military government set up if he does not survive a major air strike, with redundant media facilities, for example, so he can claim victory even in physical defeat. Add that to agents of influences planted throughout the Western media, and you get a very formidable and dangerous opponent.

So Ahmadinejad may be planning a trap. But even worse, he may be putting the West into a cleft stick, so they lose if they avoid the trap, and lose if they fall into it. It’s a standard chess gambit, and Ahmadinejad is perfectly capable of executing it.

Well, indeed. He's a formidable and dangerous opponent, and he's nuts. What part of this didn't we know before? If the balloon goes up - make that when the balloon goes up - it won't much matter whether Ahmadinejad and his fundamentalist fascist friends think they're going to get wafted up to paradise. What will matter is sending them on their way.