Morning Report: November 2, 2006

The long arm of the regime. Iran shoots missiles, while London cops hassle an anti-regime activist.

Iran announces Shahab-3 test firing in new exercises. Debka: 'Iran announces test-firing of ballistic Shehab-3 missiles in first hours of new military maneuvers. Several kinds of short-range missiles were also launched in central desert area of Iran early Thursday, Nov. 2. Iran responded Wednesday night, Nov. 1, to the US-led naval movements and buildup in the in the Red Sea (see separate item) with an announcement by its Revolutionary Guard commander General Rahim Safavi of a big, new naval exercise opening on Nov. 2. Dubbed Great Prophet, the 10-day maneuver will take place in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. The RC Air Force would, he said, for the first time test-fire the Shehab-3 (picture of first firing) armed with “a cluster warhead.”' (Debka)

British police try to arrest Khatami plaintiff. Azarmehr:

British police today [November 1] tried to arrest Safa Einollahi as soon as he arrived to join other protesters against Khatami outside Chatham House today, but other protesters fought with the police and prevented them from taking Safa away.

Safa is one of the two Iranian refugees who had applied to the Met Police to have Khatami arrested under Section 134 of the Criminal Justice Act 1998. This Act requires the arrest of any individual, regardless of nationality, where there is evidence that they committed, condoned or colluded with acts of torture. The legislation has a universal jurisdiction, and therefore covers torture committed by Iranians against Iranians in Iran. Section 134, which incorporates the UN Convention Against Torture 1984 into UK law, also holds high state officials responsible if they fail to stop torture.

More on Sina Einollahi: 'The Metropolitan police have confirmed that they are investigating complaints lodged by two Iranian exiles who claim they were falsely imprisoned and brutally tortured while Khatami was in office. Safa Einollahi, 29, and Ali Ebrahimi, 34, claim that Khatami, who was in power from 1997 to 2005, was ultimately responsible for the atrocities they endured. They want him arrested under the 1988 Criminal Justice Act, which allows for any individual, regardless of nationality, to be arrested for carrying out, condoning or colluding in crimes of torture anywhere in the world.'
Azarmehr adds:

In a more sinister move, the Metroplitan police also entered Safa's house last night and interrogated him. Asking him questions like "What other friends do you have in Britain who were previously detained in Iran."

Sue Wilkinson from the Metropolitan Police, yesterday replied to the application made by Sabi & Associates lawyers who were acting on behalf of the two Iranian refugees and refused to issue an arrest warrant saying there was insufficient evidence that Khatami personally committed such acts of torture or ordered them to be conducted.

There's more. Read the full post at the link. (Azarmeher, The Times)

Bolton points finger at Syria, Lebanon. AP via Iran Focus: 'U.S. Ambassador John Bolton accused Syria and Iran on Monday of trying to destabilize Lebanon's democratically elected government by violating a U.N. arms embargo. Bolton stressed that Syria's obligations to respect a U.N. arms embargo authorized by the Security Council resolution that ended the 34-day Israeli-Hezbollah conflict in August "are particularly important as it is the one country other than Israel that borders Lebanon." Syria and Iran are supporters of Hezbollah, providing weaponry, training and funding to the group. He called on Syrian President Bashar Assad to abide by the commitment he made to Secretary-General Kofi Annan to support the resolution and the arms embargo.' (AP)

Missing soldier still being held. Reuters via Yahoo: 'The U.S. military said on Thursday it believed an American soldier who was abducted in Baghdad 10 days ago is still being held by his captors. U.S. military spokesman Major General William Caldwell also told a news conference there was a "tremendous amount of political activity" under way to secure the release of the U.S. soldier of Iraqi descent, who was kidnapped by gunmen while visiting relatives after leaving the security of the Green Zone. Caldwell identified the soldier as Ahmed al-Taie, a 41-year-old linguist and said he was visiting family "including his Iraqi wife" when he was kidnapped. His family told reporters he was taken by Shi'ite militiamen. "At this point, we believe the ones who kidnapped Ahmed currently still have him," Caldwell told reporters.' (Reuters)

Imagine our relief. Iran cannot build ICBMs. So says Russia's top general on RIA Novosti: 'Iran does not yet have the capability to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile, Russia's top army general said Thursday. Tehran reported earlier on Thursday it has successfully launched several dozen long-range ballistic missiles during its ongoing large-scale military exercises. "According to our information, Iran does not currently have the technological and technical capability to build an intercontinental [ballistic] missile," Army General Yury Baluyevsky, chief of the General Staff of Russia's Armed Forces, told journalists. He said Iran's activity, if any, to develop ICBMs will be closely watched by the world's intelligence agencies. Moreover, such activity is restricted by international regulations on the development of cutting-edge missile technology, as well as by Tehran's non-proliferation commitments.' (RIA Novosti)

Commentary. I want to come back to an earlier post by Azarmehr, in which the UK resident wraps up his US visit with a tour of the Voice of America, Persian service studios:

... I had no idea however that I had such a reputation amongst some of the VOA staff until we visited the studios. As soon as I entered the room, one of the staff who preferred to speak English, said to our host who was introducing us "Is this the guy who is always criticising us on his weblog?"

"Don't worry, criticism makes you stronger." I replied and followed our host.

"As long as it is fair criticism" He shouted back.

I broke from our group and turned back and asked "Which one do you think was not a fair one?" I was intrigued to know.

"I am not saying you have not been fair, I am just saying keep being fair". He said.

Well that was a fair point. One can't argue with that. We should always strive to be fair.

But the most surprising reaction was from Bill Royce. When he saw me in the studio, his eyes nearly popped out and I thought he was going to have a heart attack. I was in email correspondence with Bill Royce back in 1996, when I started the website for NMIR in memory of Dr. Bakhtiar. I think my last email to him was when I expressed condolences at the time his wife passed away. I saw no reason for any animosity between him and I. Yet it seemed that a few critical reviews of VOA Persian programs and style, had turned this guy very much against me. Well too bad, people that wish to have a job for life and not be accountable to anyone, should not work in institutions that claim to represent a democratic system. It gives the wrong impression.

When I left Royce's office, I heard him say behind my back, "What is that right wing Fascist doing here in the studio?"

And these are supposed to be the good guys. These are the people our Government entrusts to spread its message - the voice, as it were, of America. WTF?

You might remember that Iranian activist Ghazal Omid was none too impressed with the State Department's efforts:

I have appeared on Voice of America and Radio Farda many times in English, Farsi, Kurdish and Afghan. You should be made aware that both censor my anti-regime comments, cautioning me off-air to be respectful to the Iranian authorities. Many of the people running VOA and Radio Farda left Iran after the revolution as political refugees. Some of them travel to Iran frequently via their Iranian passport while working, as a US citizen, for VOA in the United States. Many have lives and businesses in both countries and are trying to keep their feet dry in both places.

So whatever the people at the top may say about standing firm against the islamist regime in Tehran, we also have to deal with the lower-level regime enablers - whether the functionaries in Foggy Bottom or Red Ken's buddies in London.

Best Halloween Costume of the Year

Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand words. This one, I think, is worth a lot more:
Jeremayakovka - Homeless Suicide Bomber.

Iraq

Here's a general roundup of recent events in Iraq.

Sadr City cordon controversy. The Belmont Club discusses Nouri Maliki's recent order for the US to withdraw the military cordon around Sadr City. Quoting Jules Crittenden

On the streets of Baghdad, where the Shiites are celebrating the removal of the coalition cordon, Moqtada al-Sadr has another victory, and al-Maliki has demonstrated he is no U.S. puppet. ...

Al-Maliki has been increasingly defiant of the United States in recent weeks. To some extent, this is to be expected. Al-Maliki must maintain his credibility with Iraqis. But his coddling of the Shiite militias goes beyond that. Maliki, as other observers have noted, senses the danger of a U.S. abandonment, and also senses that militant Shia is the ultimate source of power in Iraq. His own ticket to the future. ...

[The US should] provoke a fight with [Sadr's] forces, and destroy them.

Wretchard responds:

The emergence of an independent Iraqi government complicates and simplifies things. It simplifies things in that the US can focus more on advancing its own national interests and less on the interests of the Iraqi government. We have given them a hand, now we must give ourselves a hand. And the question is, whatever Maliki thinks of the Shi'ite militias, is it in America's best interests to see them flourish? Do they hold an American soldier and can we let them? Those are the relevant questions. And strategically the answers to those questions must be answered in the best American interests.

Full post at the link. Here's the Little Green Footballs post on the story:

There’s a lot of second-guessing about Iraq these days, and a lot of people attempting to analyze where mistakes were made. In my book, one of the worst mistakes was our failure to kill Muqtada al-Sadr, a man who deserves to meet the business end of a Hellfire missile if anyone ever did.

LGF comment thread here. And here's the news item:

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Exploiting GOP vulnerability in the Nov. 7 elections, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki flexed his political muscle Tuesday and won U.S. agreement to lift military blockades on Sadr City and another Shiite enclave where an American soldier was abducted. U.S. forces, who had set up the checkpoints in Baghdad last week as part of an unsuccessful search for the soldier, drove away in Humvees and armored personnel carriers at the 5 p.m. deadline set by al-Maliki. Iraqi troops, who had manned the checkpoints with the Americans, loaded coils of razor wire and red traffic cones onto pickup trucks.

US translator Ahmed Qusai al-Taei abducted. Gateway Pundit:

Ahmed Qusai al-Taei was dragged away by the Mahdi Army while visiting his in-laws in Baghdad last Monday. ... The U.S. military has said the soldier was of Iraqi descent and that he was visiting family in the central Baghdad neighborhood of Karradah when he was abducted.

Here's the horrifying news report:

According to a report in Monday editions of The New York Times, the relatives said that the soldier, previously unidentified by the U.S. government, is Ahmed Qusai al-Taei, a 41-year-old Iraqi-American. The family did not know he was a soldier until after the kidnapping, the relatives said.

Taei married a 26-year-old college student, Israa Abdul-Satar, three months ago, the family said. They showed visitors photographs of the couple's wedding and honeymoon, the newspaper reported.

The relatives said members of the Shiite Mahdi Army militia came to the wife's home on Oct. 23 and dragged Taei into their car.

"They were saying, 'He's an American journalist,'" said a woman who claimed she was the soldier's mother-in-law and asked that she be identified only by her nickname, Um Omar, because of fear of reprisals. "We were saying, 'No, he's an Iraqi.'"

Ahmed Abdul-Satar, who said he was the soldier's brother-in-law, recounted a frantic scene from the kidnapping, with the women of the family screaming and begging the gunmen not to take Taei.

Anbar Salvation Council. The Mesopotamian has been following a citizens' posse known as the Anbar Salvation Council. From an October 24 post:

Actually, I think one of the most important developments recently is the situation in the Anbar and the rise of the anti-terrorist movement there in more developed and explicit form. This movement should neither be underestimated nor overestimated. But it is certainly real and a considerable split in the Tribes of the Dulaim. The U.S. forces have done a lot of work in this front since the beginning and have put in quite a lot of effort and have tried various approaches. In the Anbar, the Iraqi Government does not really exist at all, and it is only the American forces that have any real presence there apart from the various terrorist groups of-course. In the last year or so it seems that the Americans have been using a more subtle approach in trying to corner the enemy in certain locations and surround him without confronting him directly. It seems that he was allowed to concentrate in certain points (in and near the city of Ramadi) and almost given the freedom to exist and fester within these narrow boundaries. Thus the hapless inhabitants of these towns, such as Ramadi, were given the dubious honor of experiencing all the pleasures of living under the yoke of these hordes of Mujahideen who actually surpassed the Taliban in their zeal for various Godly practices.

For instance, here are some of the things that were declared haram (forbidden), not to mention the usual prohibitions of Islam that everybody knows:

- It is haram for men(let alone women) to wear shorts and even jeans, indeed the captain of the Iraqi tennis team was murdered in Baghdad for just this sin as he was leaving his house wearing one (to play tennis).
- It is haram for women to drive. Many women were murdered for this particular sin.
- It is haram to listen to music.
- Haircuts and hairdressing is haram and barbers and barber shops have been favorite targets.

All that is very well but wait for this:

- “Turshi”(pickled vegetables) is haram. I am told by some of my Ramadi acquaintances that jars of “Turshi” are secretly passed around much in the same way that drugs are traded elsewhere.
- Sammoun (bread that is baked in what is considered western style) is haram, and hence the many attacks on bakeries guilty of this practice.
- Last but not least, spoons forks and any such cutlery are haram !!!! The pious Islamic way is to eat with one’s bare hands.

But there's a reaction against this fanatical thuggery:

... And thus I can tell you with certainty, and based on personal acquaintances with people from that province, that the anti-terrorist movement there is real and widespread and given the right support and encouragement it could result in totally cleaning the Anbar in its entirety, which would be an important turning point in this war.

The fact that this "Anbar Salvation Council" that has proved its commitment against the terrorists is composed of the most Sunni of Sunnies, has the important effect of counteracting the sectarian tensions. And indeed already, strong expressions of support from the South and from Shiaa quarters have been expressed. The importance of this development should not be lost in the midst of the general “mess” (as expressed lately by President Bush). It is, in fact an opportunity to clean up this most strategic province and achieve an important milestone in this struggle. However, it is right that this movement should be carefully controlled and integrated within the framework of the Law and the Government. The locals have quite superior knowledge and intelligence of the nature and identity of the various terrorist groups, and have proved on several occasions their effectiveness against such groups. It is after all their homes and families that they are fighting for and they are not going to go elsewhere once they are in full control of their towns and villages.

But on October 29, Alaa reports:

The official spokesman for the "Anbar Salvation Council" has just appeared on the Al-Iraqia T.V. He announced that the Americans told the Council that if it tried to enter Ramadi to chase the terrorists out they would be confronting the American forces !! An astounding revelation which leaves one dumbfounded. From my own private sources, I heard many times that the Americans are not encouraging anti-terrorist elements to launch any large scale action against the enemy. Now this is stated openly by one of the official spokesmen of the Council. I wonder what is the real strategy of the Americans? I am mystified.

A variety of ideas are expressed in the comments thread on this post; well worth a read.

Healing Iraq on latest developments. Zeyad's October 28 post carries detailed accounts of some recent events in Baghdad:

Mahdi Army groups in Sadr City are accusing SCIRI of setting up the American military operation against them. This could spell further trouble in Shi’ite cities in the south and another confrontation between the Mahdi Army and Iraqi security forces (dominated by SCIRI and Badr).

Sources in Sadr City reported that a son of Abu Dera’ and an aide were killed in the first American raid against the Chuwadir area of Sadr City Wednesday. Abu Dera’ is a feared name in Sadr City and Sunnis accuse him of atrocities against their community in several districts surrounding Sadr City. It’s hard to get facts about him since he has become a sort of a legend in that area of Baghdad, but people now claim that Sadr personally appointed him the responsibility of cleaning up the ranks of the Mahdi Army in Sadr City and that he has started cracking down on rival gangs and splinter Mahdi Army groups in the area. Following the American raid, he is reported to have fled behind the Sadda and is now in the Al-Amin district, just southeast of Sadr City. Clashes are still reported from Sadr City and American troops have blocked all main streets leading into the huge slum.

Tensions are still high in Amara, Diwaniya and Samawa. There was a failed assassination attempt against the military intelligence commander (a SCIRI member) in Samawa, and there were clashes between militias and the Iraqi police in Suwayra southeast of Baghdad. All are signs of the increasing distrust between the Sadrist movement and SCIRI, which form the largest blocs inside the UIA.

There was a brief scare at Najaf Thursday when local authorities closed down the shrine for an hour, citing a security threat. The shrine has been opened since but there are speculations on several Iraqi message boards that an incident at the shrine may be created in order to relieve the current tensions between the U.S. and the Shia and in order to speed up the formation of the Shi’ite federal region in the south.

In a related development, Muqtada Al-Sadr issued instructions to his followers yesterday to avoid an open confrontation with American troops and what he described as “their Nawasib followers.” Nawasib in Shia literature roughly translates to ‘those who have set themselves against the prophet’s household.’ It’s a historical reference to Muslim caliphs and armies who have persecuted the prophet’s grandsons and their followers (the Shia). The term is used today in Iraq among Shi’ite circles as a veiled code for Sunnis, although they deny that and say they only mean terrorists who target the Shia. ...

Full post at the link, with a detailed map and Zeyad's translation of Muqty's statement.

Rumsfeld endorses plan to increase Iraqi army. Iraq the Model reports:

A plan to increase the numbers of Iraqi security forces was announced yesterday and the plan was immediately approved and endorsed by defense secretary Rumsfeld.

There was still some controversy and uncertainty about the number of troops that are intended to be added.

But according to this fresh press release from the Iraqi cabinet (from Voice of Iraq/Arabic) the planned increase will include adding 18800 soldiers to the units of the army overseen by the defense ministry. It remains unclear how many troops will be added to the police forces or border guards.

The press release mentioned that those 18800 troops will be distributed over several wide regions of the country including; Kirkuk, Anbar, Diyala, Salah Addin, Baghdad, Middle Euphrates and the Southern region.

IraqPundit: Don't abandon Iraqis. Finally, here's IraqPundit echoing Michael Rubin's column in the Financial Times: '"It would be a mistake to abandon democracy" in Iraq, he wrote. "To do so would reaffirm the worst conspiracies about coalition intentions and drive Iraq into the arms of neighbouring states." Rubin, addressing a mostly European readership, concludes that "While many in Britain and Europe believe war in Iraq to be illegal, they should not sacrifice ordinary Iraqis on the altar of anti-Americanism."' Indeed.

Morning Report: October 31, 2006

Eye in the sky. A terrorist gets lucky, allies do nuke drills, and Israel keeps tabs on its enemies to the north. But there are some changes on the ground that you can't see from an airplane.

Pakistan attack yields limited results, no dead Zawahiri. Yesterday's attack on a madrassa in Pakistan probably didn't kill Zawahiri, says Daveed Gartenstein-Ross at Counterterrorism Blog: 'I just spoke with a military intelligence source who confirmed that the Bajur airstrike (see Andy Cochran's post on it) was conducted by a U.S. Predator, adding that helicopters were also involved. The strike occurred around dawn, as people in the camp were preparing for their morning prayers. My source is skeptical of speculation that Zawahiri may have been killed in the strike, saying that Zawahiri sightings are a dime a dozen. He says it's possible that Matiur Rehman was killed, but is also skeptical of that.' The Pakistani government claimed responsibility for the strike, but they probably didn't do it; Stratfor's analysis figures that 'From Musharraf's standpoint, the notion that Pakistani forces carried out a strike against their fellow citizens is somewhat less damaging than the perception that he has permitted infringements of national sovereignty.' For Musharraf, this is the better of two bad options. (CTB, Stratfor)

Proliferation Security Exercise off Iranian coast. Vital Perspective: '25 nations took part in a U.S.-led naval exercise in waters not far from Iran aimed at training forces to block the transport of weapons of mass destruction and related equipment. Italy, the U.S., Australia, Britain, France and Bahrain deployed ships and personnel to the drill, part of President Bush's Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI). Other countries, including the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan and South Korea, sent observers. About 20 miles from Iranian waters in the Persian Gulf, Italian and Bahraini marines sped through the water in small inflatable bloats and boarded a British vessel, the RFA Brambleleaf, which was carrying mock nuclear detonators. Marines armed with machine guns guarded the crew as another team searched the vessel.' (Vital Perspective)

Israel overflies Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. Debka: 'Israel Air Force warplanes over-fly Hizballah’s reconstructed command centers and fortifications in S. Beirut Tuesday. According to DEBKAfile’s military sources, the low Israeli air passes, about which the Lebanese government complained, recorded Hizballah’s reestablishment in Beirut’s Shiite Dahya district, two months after its military centers were flattened in the Lebanon war. It is now a closed military zone whose entry is closely guarded by Hizballah operatives. Israeli warplanes also recorded Hizballah’s revived bunker system, foundations for new rocket launchers and rebuilt intelligence and surveillance positions rising day by day along the Lebanese-Israeli border. Similarly, the tempo of Iranian-Syrian weapons consignments to Hizballah units has been stepped up. They include ground-to-ground missiles, anti-air, anti-tank and shore-to-sea missiles. DEBKAfile’s military sources confirm that Hizballah has fully re-stocked the arsenal of rockets of the type which blasted northern Israel for 33 days in July and August.' Debka identifies the benefits of UNIFIL and Resolution 1701 to Syria and Iran as follows:

1. The takeover of Beirut’s government centers in Beirut by Iran-backed Hizballah and pro-Syrian factions – if possible without bloodshed. The weapons will be used to quell possible political or armed resistance. None of these groups, joined by Gen. Michel Aoun’s pro-Syrian Maronie Christians will have no qualms about sparking a civil war or murdering prime minister Fouad Siniora and other ministers in order to achieve their aims. This information has been in American, French, German and Israeli intelligence since the start of October, prompting US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice to say Monday, Oct. 30: “We too have heard that there are people who would like to destabilize the government of Prime Minister Siniora. We’ve heard that there are people who would like to intimidate or assassinate again, they’ve done it before in Lebanon.”

2. In the case of an armed clash, however limited in scope, between the US and Iranian forces massed in the Persian Gulf or in Iraq – which Israel’s high command believes unavoidable – informed Israeli sources have no doubt Hizballah will hit back on Tehran’s behalf with a fresh rocket offensive against Israeli cities.

Reuters has this: 'Israeli warplanes flew at a low altitude over Beirut, its suburbs and large areas of south Lebanon on Tuesday, witnesses and Lebanese security sources said. United Nations peacekeepers and Lebanon say Israeli overflights violate Security Council Resolution 1701 that ended a 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas in August. Israel says its combat planes would continue to fly over Lebanon to ensure that weapons are not smuggled into southern Lebanon from Syria to resupply Hezbollah.' (Debka, Reuters)

Gaza op underway. Arutz Sheva: 'Though not quite the invasion that has been widely called for of late, an IDF reserves force entered Gaza overnight in an operation to ferret out terrorist cells. Four Kassams hit Negev. The objective of the IDF mission was to remove trees and brush that could be used to camouflage terrorists, and to otherwise thwart potential attacks from southern Gaza against Israel. The soldiers entered Gaza east of Khan Yunis, near the former site of Gush Katif "capital" N'vei Dekalim and north of the Sufah Crossing. They began clearing the area in an effort to make it harder for terrorists to lie in wait to carry out attacks.' (A7)

Commentary. As I've said before, I think the Bush Administration's strategy provides for regime change in Tehran and Damascus, because without it, none of the Administration's moves up to this point would make any sense. But what about the changes taking place in America and elsewhere in the Western world?

A recent (subscription) column by David Brooks in the New York Times speculated on the coming "era of what's next" when neither conservatism nor liberalism dominates. Judith's recent post explored the challenging relationships between people from different political camps. And this, I think, is the big story in its own way.

Michael Totten has some thoughts on the movie 'Syriana'. Money quote:

Part of the story revolves around powerful oil companies that dictate American foreign policy, which is cartoonish and conspiratorial. (Oil companies, in the real world, lobbied for the lifting of sanctions against Iraq rather than for regime-change in Iraq. They did not get their way.)

This is only one part of the story, however. If you can just let it go and run with it for the sake of the movie, the rest holds up reaonably well on a thematic level. Liberal and reformist Muslims are the good guys. The Islamists are not. The point of the story, as the plot unfolds, is obvious: the United States should support liberal and reformist Muslims in the Middle East for their sake as well as for ours. You could argue, if you wanted, that Syriana is a neoconservative film. The writer and the director don’t think of it that way. But that’s partly because liberalism and neoconservatism are not as far apart as they think.

It's not just that liberalism and conservatism are in flux; it's that the very notions of "conservatism" and "liberalism" have mutated almost beyond recognition. Many people still identify, and will continue to identify, as "liberals" or "conservatives"; but it will be just that, a matter of identity more than of philosophy.

Frank Warner, a liberal for liberation, has a response to Thomas Sowell's column on diversity. Warner writes: 'What unites us? I wouldn’t give up too fast on diversity, but we all have to recognize the limits of its benefits and its potential for division and destruction. We want diversity, lots of it, and we want to stir it all together.'

When the smoke clears and the dust settles from the current Mideast conflict, many basic questions will still remain. We will have to deal with one another, and we will have to exchange ideas and opinions. How do we deal with differing political opinions, religions, philosophies, cultures, worldviews? That question itself is part of the debate. And it is why some of the most important changes will not be brought about on the battlefield, but in our daily lives.

Duke Case

Barring any surprising new revelations, I will not be posting further on the Duke lacrosse rape case, except possibly if a trial verdict is announced. Contrary to my initial impressions, I am prepared to say at this point that I believe it's unlikely that the accuser's claims have any merit.

I'm not going to go into the particulars of the case further except to say that you can follow it on the news.

The following comments, excerpted from an earlier post, may help to explain my frame of mind at the time the Duke case appeared, and shed some light on why I was predisposed to believe the accuser's story:

Initially, I was inclined to believe the alleged victim's story. The lack of sensationalistic details, such as obscenities written on the victim's body in dog feces, to my mind distinguished it from the Tawana Brawley hoax. Still fresh in my mind was a post on rape I had recently written, which particularly highlighted the problem of rape in the college environment. (If you need to know more, please read about the Orange County rape case, in which the crime was recorded on video. Three boys repeatedly raped and sodomized the unconscious 16-year-old victim with a lighted cigarette and a pool cue. From the LA Times: "Judge Francisco Briseño said minors and first-time offenders usually are not sent to prison, but in this case the defendants had degraded the victim — laughing and mocking her as she lay unconscious on a pool table — and were slow to show contrition.") In this context, it was hard for me to imagine what the Duke accuser could possibly hope to gain from making a spurious complaint.

And then there was the Ryan McFadyen e-mail. "i plan on killing the bitches as soon as the[y] walk in and proceeding to cut their skin off while cumming in my duke issue spandex." Nice guy.

But from the outset, a couple of things troubled me about the Duke incident. First was the defending attorneys' confidence that DNA evidence would not harm their clients. Second was the curious method of identifying the suspects: they were white. Apparently the alleged victim could provide no other details - tall or short, stocky or slight, blond or brunet, long or short hair, bearded or clean-shaven, uncut or circumcised - about the three men who had violated her for half an hour. In this context, the attention to the assailants' whiteness seems odd and gratuitous.

Several of my closest friends have been raped, and at least one in a college setting. I will not lightly dismiss a woman's claim that she has been abused. (Contrary to the impression you might get from FrontPage, rapes don't only happen in Europe.) I do not care the slightest bit whether you think the victim was a "lady" or a "person of note" or otherwise. And I've seen enough old-fashioned sexism and racism to know that these things haven't disappeared either. (A number of commentators on this incident have been kind enough to illustrate this point for me.) But I'm not naive enough to believe that every claim of rape - or race bias - is truthful. And it's also true that some individuals who are black, gay, or Jewish, have been known to fabricate incidents of fictitious racism, homophobia, or anti-Semitism for perverse reasons of their own.

There's nothing more for me to add right now. Rapes happen, and many real rapes go unreported; and even among rapes that are reported, justice too often goes unserved. And then again there are false rape claims, which hurt both the men who are falsely accused and the women who will find justice that much more elusive. I leave it to you to decide which group this case belongs to.

FINAL UPDATE: Gay Patriot reports that DNA tests have cleared all of the three lacrosse players accused in the case, and have cast doubt on the alleged victim's denial that she engaged in sexual activity before the purported rape:

DNA testing conducted by a private lab in the Duke lacrosse rape case found genetic material from several males in the accuser's body and her underwear _ but none from any team member, including the three charged with rape, according to a defense motion filed Wednesday.

The motion, signed by attorneys for defendants Reade Seligmann, Collin Finnerty and David Evans, complained that the information was not disclosed in a report on the testing prosecutors provided earlier this year to the defense.

"This is strong evidence of innocence in a case in which the accuser denied engaging in any sexual activity in the days before the alleged assault, told police she last had consensual sexual intercourse a week before the assault, and claimed that her attackers did not use condoms and ejaculated," the motion read.

I consider the matter closed.

Morning Report: October 30, 2006

Closing in. Allied navies flood the Middle East, and Egyptians break the code of silence around mob sexual abuse.

Iran: The gathering storm. Debka:

Hundreds of US and allied war ships foregathered in the strategic seas of the Middle East and India in the last days of October 2006 for two primary missions: To prepare for a US-led military strike against Iran which has stepped up its uranium enrichment program with a second centrifuge project - undeterred by the prospect of UN sanctions; and measures to fend off palpable al Qaeda threats to oil targets.

1. A large-scale US-Indian sea exercise called Malabar 06 is in progress off the Indian coast of Goa, ending Nov. 5. The American vessels taking part are the USS Boxer carrier, the USS Bunker Hill guided missile battle cruiser, the guided missile destroyer USS Howard and the USS Benfold , as well as the Los Angeles-class nuclear attack submarine Providence and the Canadian guided missile frigate HMCS Ottawa. Indian maritime might is displayed with its warships like INS Beas , INS Mysore , INS Shakti , INS Ganga , tanking ship INS Gharial , submarine INS Shankush and Coast Guard ship CGS Samar Malabar also involves the landing of large number of soldiers ashore, ahead of the Indian acquisition of the massive amphibious USS Trenton transport dock which can carry six helicopters and about a 1000 soldiers. Our Tehran sources report that last Thursday, Oct. 26, Iranian officials were seriously rattled by a rumor that an Iranian spy plane had located the USS Boxer heading for the Persian Gulf. It prompted fears of an imminent American military assault to lift Republican prospects in the coming US midterm elections of Nov. 7. In any case, the Iranians suspect that at the end of the joint US-Indian exercise in the Arabian Sea, Boxer will veer west and head into the Persian Gulf. There would then be four US air carriers with task forces parked opposite Iranian shores, including the USS Enterprise Strike Group, the USS Iwo Jima Expeditionary Strike Group and the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, which are already in place. According to the intelligence reaching Iran, the Boxer and its escorts carry 850 Marines who have just spent months in special training for operations on offshore oil rigs and platforms.

2. American, Italy, France, Britain, Australia, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait are taking part in an exercise practicing the interception of ships carrying nuclear materials or components for use in advanced weapons. The exercise opposite Bahrain is the first to be held in the Persian Gulf under the three-year old proliferation security initiative. It applications could be translated equally into the enforcement of sanctions against North Korea, which conducted its first nuclear test on Oct. 9, or Iran. ...

Read the rest at the link, and find out what Saudi Arabia is doing. (Debka)

Silent no more. Sandmonkey: 'The story is as follows for the those of you who didn't hear about it: It was the first day of Eid, and a new film was opening downtown. Mobs of males gatherd trying to get in, but when the show was sold out, they decided they will destroy the box office. After accomplishing that, they went on what can only be described as a sexual frenxy: They ran around grabbing any and every girl in sight, whether a niqabi, a Hijabi or uncoverd. Whether egyptian or foreigner. Even pregnant ones. They grabbed them, molested them, tried to rip their cloths off and rape them, all in front of the police, who didn't do shit. The good people of downtown tried their best to protect the girls. Shop owners would let the girls in and lock the doors, while the mobs tried to break in. Taxi drivers put the girls in the cars while the mobs were trying to break the glass and grab the girls out. It was a disgusting pandamonium of sexual assaults that lasted for 5 houres from 7:30 PM to 12:30 am, and it truns my stomach just to think about it.' Thke press was silent about the incident - 'Until Nawarah Negm blew the whole thing wide open on live television on the Dream Channel.' Read the whole thing. (Sandmonkey)

Commentary. Short post today. I'll leave you with this comment by Cyrus from a thread at the Free Iran News Forum:

As I said in a short essay in 1993 we should not judge Free World Machiavellian politicians by their words but by their hard and difficult choices, actions, and great sacrifices. Due to the fact that I do not have much respect and trust on Machiavellian politicians of Neo Colonialists EU, Russia, China and some of so called US Machiavellian American Politicians who are hiding behind the so called “Realist” platform (CFR Invitation to Ahmadinejad ...) to deceive the public opinion therefore I do not expect any good outcome and actions against Islamic Fascists until I see real results and rotten regime change as minimum. We should not forget that the G8 is partially responsible for helping Islamic Fascists in past 28 years under so called “Realist” platform and so far we have not seen any real support for Regime Change. Unfortunately today “Hypocrisy” is the name of the game for short term gain in the name of National Interest …. and that is why great majority of Americans are loosing interest in politics and don’t have much trust and respect for today politicians. The American founding fathers - George Washington, Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, John Adams … were not Machiavellian and that is why they have been able to create a great foundation and the founding fathers have achieved what our generation can not achieve with far superior power … Why?

Whether we like it or not, Detente With Islamic Fascists Terror Masters is unwritten G8 policy today and for past 28 years. So far we have not seen any clear actions for regime change …..

Morning Report: October 29, 2006

Where are they? If they're Egyptian troops, they're going to the border; if they're Egyptian Baha'is, they don't exist; if they're al-Qaeda, they might be in a submarine. But where are the modernist Muslims?

Egypt shifts troops to Gaza border. Debka: 'Egyptian-Israeli border tension rises with transfer of thousands of Egyptian interior ministry troops to Gaza’s Philadelphi Route in breach of accords with Israel. DEBKAfile’s military sources report 4,000 Interior Ministry Al Aman al Markaz troops were suddenly moved to the Egyptian-Gaza border Saturday. They have beefed up the borders guards already deployed in the North Sinai region of many of the Palestinian arms smuggling tunnels riddling the border. ... Our intelligence sources explain the sudden Egyptian build-up by two developments: Internal rivalry in the Egyptian government between defense and intelligence ministers Gen. Tantawi and Gen. Suleiman. The latter has sent the extra troops to establish a presence on the sensitive border. The other is the urgent need for an effective buffer to guard Sinai against a spillover of a Fatah-Hamas showdown which appears to be on thee verge of flaring in the Gaza Strip.' (Debka)

Egypt: No rights for Baha'i religion. Or Does It Explode:

A few months back we reported on the controversy in Egypt over whether the Baha'i religion can be listed on Egyptian identity cards. The Ministry of Interior does not want Egyptian citizens of the Baha'i faith to have this right, and are currently appealing a lower court judge's decision to grant this simple right.

Now the Egyptian government has released an Advisory Report on the status of Baha'i in Egypt and the country's commitment to religious freedom. Let's listen in on the summary of the 24-page report provided by the Baha'i Faith in Egypt blog:

In brief, it concluded that since the Baha'i Faith is not recognized in Egypt as a "divine religion," therefore its followers in that land have no rights whatsoever and that they simply do not exist! Consequently, they concluded that Egypt's Constitutional guarantees of freedom of belief and religion do not apply to the Baha'is.

Full post at the link. (ODIE)

ThreatsWatch: Submarine threat to Ras Tanura? ThreatsWatch: 'As al-Qaeda warns Canada of a Canadian 9/11 attack if the American ally does not withdraw its heavily engaged (and extremely effective) troops from Afghanistan, intelligence suggests that an increased threat to Saudi Arabian oil facilities exists. The reaction to the intelligence has been primarily to marshal allied naval assets to protect the world’s largest offshore oil export facility, the Ras Tanura terminal, as well as Bahrain’s Bapco refinery. The potential methods of an al-Qaeda attack on the offshore Ras Tanura terminal are numerous, including an explosives-laden small craft such as that used against the USS Cole or a rocket or missile attack from a small craft or even an attack from al-Qaeda operatives that may have infiltrated the Saudi Arabian military or the terminal and/or refinery staff.' (ThreatsWatch)

Commentary. Here's a brand new blog I think you should know about: Smart and Final Isis. They are "two conservative, Republican women who met in a chat room filled with fans of a big-time conservative icon." Specifically,

Smartsoimustbeabitch (aka Smartso) is the Left Brain of this operation (logical, sequential, “Detail” person). Isis is the Right Brain (Intuitive, Synthesizing, “Big Picture” person).

They're committed to improving the quality of discourse in the Rightosphere and elsewhere. Oh, and don't start in on the Muslim-bashing with them, either. Here's their most recent piece, quoting Aslam Abdullah on alt.Muslim: "Kill us too, we are also American." Welcome to the blogosphere, SFI, and keep up the good work.

Michael Totten has some thoughts on islamophobia and "islamophobia":

First of all, I want to publicly commend Dean Esmay for challenging right-wing bigotry (you heard me) against Muslims. It ought to go without saying that I am not referring to opponents, peaceful or otherwise, of Al Qaeda, Hamas, The Taliban, Hezbollah, Wahhabism, Algerian Salafism, etc., ad nauseum. I am referring here to those who demonize a billion people -- including my wonderful old West Beirut neighbors, as well as the Iraqi Kurds who love us more than anyone else in the world -- as mortal enemies.

...

Bigotry against Muslims in general, rather than hostility to terrorists and fanatics in particular, is a bit of an issue in the rightosphere (to borrow Ali Eteraz's terminology), and occasionally even in my own comments section. It's a problem I should probably mention more than I do.

The inverse is easily as big a problem. Bogus claims of "Islamophobia" are trotted out just as often by the bigots' evil twins.

Follow Michael's link to Johann Hari. Here's a quote from the JH post that I think gets right to the point:

Like all people who cry wolf, those who cry Islamophobia are aiding and abetting the real wolves out there. There is an authentic Islamophobia howling in the background.

Finally, let me leave you with a link to Ali Eteraz, who stands at the center of this latest blaze of dialogue. Here's Ali on the non-locality paradox:

Having tried on numerous occasions to get articles about reform in the Arab and Muslim world(s) into mainstream western press, I have discovered a trend: Too Local. “A great article, but too local,” has been the refrain of many very intelligent and fair-minded editors of my acquaintence, when I show them something about this or that sheikh or movement or progressive fatwa. Where are the modernist Muslims, the mob asks? Well, here.

Wondering where all the modernist Muslims are? Well, now you know.

And don't forget to bookmark Eteraz on your browser.

Morning Report: October 27, 2006

Taking stock. The mission in Iraq requires new thinking and new approaches; and shock waves from a bombing reverberate across years and hemispheres.

Army realignment. Defense Tech: '"Pentagon records show one-fifth of the Army's active-duty troops have served multiple tours of war duty while more than 40% haven't been deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan," reports USA Today. So the Army is "realign[ing] its forces to prevent a small slice of soldiers who are shouldering much of the fighting from wearing out."' (Defense Tech)

AMIA bombing fallout. Counterterrorism Blog:

The Argentine request for Rafsanjani's arrest is an important symbolic step - although real justice will continue, unfortunately, to be delayed. Iran has a record of evading the consequences of supporting terrorism. Over two years ago I wrote an article on Britain's failure to fulfill an Argentine extradition request for Hadi Soleimanpour, who had been Iran's ambassador in Buenos Aires when the AMIA bombing occurred.

It is important to note that in Iran's last presidential election, Rafsanjani was considered the moderate.

The AMIA attack was a textbook Iranian-Hezbollah operation, meticulously planned and aimed at achieving both mass murder and political goals. Terror is part of Iran's diplomatic tool kit - a fact that ought to focus attention on Iran's ongoing efforts to obtain nuclear weapons.

Full article at the link. Iran Focus lists the names of the officials charged:

Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, former Iranian President, currently chairs Iran’s State Expediency Council and is deputy chair of the Assembly of Experts

Hojatoleslam Ali Fallahian, former Iranian Minister of Intelligence and Security

Ali Akbar Velayati, former Iranian Foreign Minister, currently the chief foreign policy advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Major General Mohsen Rezai, former Supreme Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), is currently the secretary of the State Expediency Council

Major General Ahmad Vahidi, former Commander of the IRGC Qods Force, is currently Deputy Defence Minister

Mohsen Rabbani, former cultural attaché at the Iranian embassy in Buenos Aires

Ahmad Reza Asgari, alias Mohsen Ranjbaran, former official at the Iranian embassy in Buenos Aires

Imad Fayez Mugniyeh, commander of the Shiite Lebanese group Hezbollah’s overseas operation, currently believed to be hiding in Iran

“We have proven that the decision to attack the AMIA headquarters on July 18, 1994 ... was a decision made by the highest authorities in Iran's government at the time”, Argentine chief prosecutor Alberto Nisman was quoted as saying by news agencies on Wednesday.(CTB, Iran Focus)

Rumsfeld on Iraq timetable. Voice of America: 'U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says it is entirely reasonable for U.S. and Iraqi officials to discuss setting benchmarks and target dates for achieving their goals during the coming year. He says some of that has been done, but he says he is not aware of any agreement by Iraqi officials to develop a comprehensive plan, or to make any such plan public. Secretary Rumsfeld spoke at the Pentagon on Thursday as controversy continues to swirl about recent statements by U.S. and Iraqi officials. ... "The idea [is] of saying, 'We're here, we want to get there, here are some steps to get there, let's go ahead and tell the world these are the steps, we want to get there, we've kind of agreed on them. And then see if we can't do it," he added.' (VOA)

Commentary. Earlier this week, Debka favorably compared President Bush's statements on Iraq with the Israeli leadership's pronouncements on the recent Lebanon war: 'Olmert and his pep talk are in good company. President George W. Bush, echoed by British premier Tony Blair, speaks of America’s many achievements in the Iraq War while admitting that changes may be necessary in tactics. Unlike Olmert, however, neither takes his public for fools. They admit mistakes were made in Iraq which need to be corrected.' The article goes on to argue that State Department official Alberto Fernandez' controversial statements actually enhanced the Administration's credibility.

Threats Watch has a partial transcript and analysis of President Bush's recent press conference. TW's Kirk writes:

The only point I’ll emphasize is that, as the president notes, the current government led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is only five months old. To many it seems that the Iraqis have had a long time to get themselves together, but the process of establishing a new representative government where before there was nothing but a police state would have taken a long time even if we had done everything right. Obviously we did not, and my estimation is that we could have saved about a year by handling things differently after the fall of the Baathist regime. But regardless this would have taken years, and it is safe to say that if General Washington and the Continental Congress had been given the timetable many wish to force on Maliki’s government, the United States would not exist today.

Iraq the Model draws some lessons from the Amara experience:

What will happen if the MNF are withdrawn prematurely before the job is done?

Perhaps the lesson from the recent troubles in Amara when militias took over large parts of the city gives a clear answer and offers Iraqis and the allies a forecast of what the future holds for us should we make the wrong decisions.

I think the decision to announce a phased withdrawal of troops (which is now dubbed as a phased handover of security responsibility) was made without putting in consideration the developments on the ground. And I think pressures on the American and British governments accelerated the process in a reactionary protective manner rather than a rational pragmatic one.

I suspect the allies and the Iraqi government were fully aware of that time bomb called militias but they turned their backs on this fact and acted as if the mission is moving forward smoothly without any disruptions.

It is easy to do it on paper…It takes no more than a small celebratory ceremony…lower this flag, fly the other one and invite officials, generals and journalists to publicize the meaningless event.
But at the same time the other camp represented by the militias was watching cheerfully and celebrating their riddance of an obstacle that was preventing them from taking over cities like Amara.

Mohammed concludes that 'Action must be based upon a clear, well studied strategy combined with determination to acknowledge and correct mistakes rather than running away from them or just whining about them which seems to be the strategy of many these days.'

Morning Report: October 26, 2006

Israel/Germany incident in Mediterranean. Debka:

Conflicting versions released by Germany and Israel of an incident in which two Israeli F-16 warplanes flying low said to have shot two missiles at a German naval vessel off Lebanon. DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources have investigated the incident, which was first disclosed by the German daily Der Tagesspiegel earlier Wednesday, Oct. 25 . They confirm that it did occur and involved six Israel F-16 warplanes and the German navy command ship, the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern F 218 frigate, which leads the UN naval force opposite Lebanon. Tuesday evening, Oct. 24, Israeli warplanes were flying low over Damour 20 km south of Beirut on their way to gather intelligence of arms smuggling to Hizballah through the Lebanese coast. The European fleet deployed to monitor the coast for arms smuggling cannot get close enough because the ships are not allowed by the Lebanese government to access coastal waters. On their way from west to east, the Israeli F-16s passed low over the German command vessel, releasing infra-red decoys to ward off any rocket attack. This triggered an alert on the German frigate and its crew jumped to battle positions.

At this point, the Israeli and German versions diverge. he frigate’s officers flashed Berlin a signal that Israeli air force planes had fired two missiles near the ship. Israel denies this. The Israeli defense minister Amir Peretz, who talked by telephone to the German defense minister Franz Josef Jung Wednesday night, insisted the ship’s officers were wrong. The conversation was described as acrimonious. DEBKAfile’s sources in the German capital add that Israel agreed to send over films taken by its warplanes in the course of the episode to convince the Germans that no missiles were fired and expected Berlin to release a notice of clarification on this point.

Arutz Sheva: 'Defense Minister Amir Peretz on Wednesday spoke with German Defense Minister Franz-Josef Jung, telling him that reports that IDF fighter planes fired at a German UNIFIL ship in southern Lebanon are simply untrue.' Jerusalem Post: 'In the wake of the controversy surrounding earlier reports of IAF fighter planes firing on a German warship, IDF sources said Wednesday evening that several days ago there was an incident in which a German helicopter took off from a warship off the Lebanese coast, in an area where, according to agreements, it had to declare the flight to the IAF. Since Germany failed to follow this procedure, the IAF scrambled its fighter jets towards the area but the problem was solved without confrontation and without any shots being fired, reported the IDF.' Previous DiL post here: Israeli planes buzz German navy ship. (various)

Gay partnership victory in New Jersey. CNN: 'In a decision likely to stoke the contentious election-year debate over same-sex marriage, the New Jersey Supreme Court has ruled that state lawmakers must provide the rights and benefits of marriage to gay and lesbian couples. The high court on Wednesday gave legislators six months to either change state marriage laws to include same-sex couples, or come up with another mechanism, such as civil unions, that would provide the same protections and benefits. The court's vote was 4-to-3. But the ruling was more strongly in favor of same-sex marriage than that split would indicate. The three dissenting justices argued the court should have extended full marriage rights to homosexuals, without kicking the issue back to legislators.' Gay.com: 'New Jersey's Supreme Court, in a 4-3 decision issued Wednesday, has failed to find that the state's same-sex couples have a constitutional right to marry. But the justices found New Jersey's 2-year-old domestic-partnership system inadequate, and gave the Legislature 180 days to "enact an appropriate statutory structure" giving same-sex couples rights equivalent to those of married couples. The seven plaintiff couples "pursued the singular goal of obtaining the right to marry, knowing that, if successful, the rights of marriage automatically follow. We do not have to take that all-or-nothing approach," Justice Barry Albin wrote in the 4-3 majority opinion.' Previous post at DiL: Gay partnership wins in New Jersey. (CNN, Gay.com)

Australian Muslim leader: Women are meat. The Australian: 'The nation's most senior Muslim cleric has blamed immodestly dressed women who don't wear Islamic headdress for being preyed on by men and likened them to abandoned "meat" that attracts voracious animals. In a Ramadan sermon that has outraged Muslim women leaders, Sydney-based Sheik Taj Din al-Hilali also alluded to the infamous Sydney gang rapes, suggesting the attackers were not entirely to blame.' Tammy adds: 'Lying hypocrite. All Australians, especially Muslim women, should reject this Bravo Sierra and take that religion back from the cavemen who squat and defile it. And do I hear a condemnation of this freak from the American feminist establishment?' (The Australian via Tammy Bruce)

CTB: Hijack attempts were test runs. Counterterrorism Blog: 'In a September 18 article for the Daily Standard, "Practice Makes Terror," ... I argued that the "rash of false alarms" following the August 10 revelation of a foiled transatlantic air terror plot may not have been entirely false. I argued that there may be casings and dry runs occurring -- and that a number of incidents that were casings may not end up being remembered as such. Now a new article in Norway's Aftenposten lends further credence to the view that casings are indeed occurring ...' Read the rest at the link. (CTB)

Commentary. Yesterday's Morning Report carried an item from Debka reporting that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki rejected the US proposal of a timetable. Today's Belmont Club has more:

The Iraqi PM publicly denounced American calls for a timetable to shutdown militias and decried US operations against death squads, including operations against Sadr City. "We expected it," US officials said. (AP/Breitbart)

Maliki has nailed his colors to the mast on this issue at least. Legally Iraq is a sovereign country, which the US must treat it as any other country from the perspective of US national interest. Theoretically Maliki is under no obligation to obey Washington, which is correspondingly under no compulsion to support Maliki. While America would prefer to see a stable government in Iraq that is ultimately a task that cannot be delegated to Americans indefinitely. So expect some hardball to be played as this is the way of relations between nations. That said, Maliki's statements imply he values American support less necessary than the goodwill of his Shi'ite base.

The post is long but well worth reading in full. The post quotes a US Army intelligence sergeant: 'We need to backtrack. We need to publicly admit we're backtracking. This is the opening battle of the ideological struggle of the 21st century.' Wretchard explains: 'In one sense, the US defeated Saddam's Army and the Sunni insurgency too well.'

On the Arab-Israeli front, this morning's analysis from Stratfor expresses skepticism about the idea of an anti-Iran coalition between Israel and the Arab states (excluding Syria). 'Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni reportedly plans to attend a U.N. conference on democracy in Qatar next week. Wednesday's announcement of the travel plans, which have not yet been confirmed, is the latest event in a series of developments that underscore Qatar's attempts to emerge as a regional player in the Middle East. It also points toward a larger geopolitical trend: Israel's eagerness to court what Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has called an axis of moderate Arab states in hopes of countering Iran and its radical allies as they try to exploit the Arab-Israel conflict to their advantage.' Despite the growing trend of back-channel Israeli/Arab contacts, Stratfor's analysis argues that "the reality is far more complex" involving Tehran's advantage in manipulating Sunni/Shi'a sectarian tensions. The article also notes that Sunni states like Egypt and Qatar - and the unique case of Turkey - further complicate the picture.

Stratfor's analysis concludes with the assertion that a lasting Arab/Israeli peace is contingent on a resolution of the "Palestinian problem". Forgive me if I think this is hogwash. It's just the standard CW on the Middle East that we've been conditioned to accept. The regimes in Tehran and Damascus are milking the Palestinian pseudo-problem for all it's worth. I call it a pseudo-problem because I don't think the problem lies in the Palestinian territories at all - nor does its solution. The solution lies in Syria and Iran - and specifically in a fundamental change in the nature of those regimes.

I do not believe that regime change in Iran and Syria will solve everything. It is a necessary but by no means sufficient element of a future free and secure Middle East. The remaining elements will require more learning and more hard work by all parties. President Bush has publicly recognized the scale of the challenges we're facing and the setbacks we've seen - and he's determined to press forward. I agree.

The future will be determined by the interplay of a great many shifting factions, loyalties, and ideals - and I am not speaking only of Iraq.

Condi Ticks Off Theocons

Baptist Press, via Timbre of a Timefree Mind:

Conservative Christians are upset over comments made by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during a State Department ceremony to install Mark Dybul, an open homosexual, as the nation’s new global AIDS coordinator.

With first lady Laura Bush standing with her Oct. 10, Rice welcomed Dybul’s family -- which she introduced as his “partner,” Jason Claire, and his “mother-in-law,” Claire’s mother. As Dybul was sworn in, Claire held the Bible.

Several conservatives spoke against the appointment of a homosexual man to an ambassador-level role of stopping the spread of AIDS, and many objected to the “mother-in-law” reference.

“That’s astonishing that that fact would be underscored, highlighted by the Secretary of State,” Tom Minnery of Focus on the Family Action said. “This is very provocative and very disappointing.”

BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

Rice’s chief of staff called to tell Minnery it was a mix-up and someone was supposed to check on the mother-in-law status but didn’t.

Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, doesn’t believe it was a mistake because “the U.S. State Department is in the business of diplomacy and avoiding faux pas.” He added in his Oct. 16 Washington Update e-mail that in the “world of protocol, verbal miscues are anathema.”

Waaaaaah.

Peter Sprigg, vice president for policy at FRC, said Rice’s comments were “profoundly offensive,” especially considering the Bush administration’s support of a federal marriage amendment to protect traditional marriage. He also objected to having a homosexual implement Bush’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

“We have to face the fact that putting a homosexual in charge of AIDS policy is a bit like putting the fox in charge of the hen house,” Sprigg said.... If we are not willing to say that men should not engage in sex with other men, then we are really not willing to tackle the root causes of the AIDS problem.”

Golly, I'm telling you, this guy's call on "profoundly offensive" carries a LOT of weight with me ........

Veil Debate

Phyllis Chesler at NRO:

... The veil in Muslim lands is imposed upon women whose religious training and opportunities for scholarship and ritual authority is practically nonexistent. The veil is no more freely chosen than is their religion, which neither women nor men are allowed to leave without risking exile or death. Muslim women in Muslim lands or in immigrant communities in the West might gain their only access to public attention and approval if and when they espouse a fundamentalist point of view, namely one that favors Islamic gender and religious apartheid and that upholds the view that women must be veiled.

However, when Muslim women in Western countries wear the veil it has some additional connotations. Veiling is a visible, public, symbolic, and very aggressive statement about refusing to assimilate into a Jewish-Christian and modern democracy. It is a way of remaining apart, different. ... It is a way of rejecting sexual promiscuity, sexual availability in the West and paradoxically, embracing Islamic gender apartheid (arranged marriage, polygamy, wife-beating, segregation, female genital cutting, honor killing, etc.).

If veiling did not mean any of the above I might have one view about it — but might still view it as a slippery-slope problem. But since veiling does have the above meanings I say this: If we allow our Western views about tolerance to force us to tolerate the intolerant; if we allow human-rights violations to flourish as expressions of religious liberty — then we are lost. Thus, I would ban veiling in the workplace, at school, and in public venues but at this time take no position about it at home or in the mosque in the West.

Sweden's Nyamko Sabuni.

An elegant, vivacious woman who uses subtle make-up and wears soft clothes in pastel shades and tight woollen sweaters, she argues for a total ban on veils being worn by girls under the age of consent, which is 15 in Sweden.

“Nowhere in the Koran does it state that a child should wear a veil; it stops them being children. By putting a veil on a girl you are immediately saying to the outside world that she is sexually mature and has to be covered. It’s wrong,” she said.

Discussion on comments threat at Feministing.
Discussion on comments thread at Feministe.

Morning Report: October 25, 2006

Nuclear labs and meth labs. Documents from Los Alamos turn up in an unexpected place, a behemoth changes course, and an Arab leader doesn't like deadlines. One Middle Eastern country takes steps to help sex slaves; while a Western leader refuses to back down in the face of ill winds.

Police raid turns up Los Alamos documents. AP via Yahoo: 'Authorities in northern New Mexico have stumbled onto what appears to be classified information from Los Alamos National Laboratory while arresting a man suspected of domestic violence and dealing methamphetamine from his mobile home. Sgt. Chuck Ney of the Los Alamos Police Department said the information was discovered during a search last Friday of the man's records for evidence of his drug business. Police alerted the FBI to the secret documents, which agents traced back to a woman linked to the drug dealer, officials said. The woman is a contract employee at Los Alamos National Laboratory, according to an FBI official who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the case.' Defense Tech has more:

While the FBI won't comment, the Project on Government Oversight (POGO) has some insights.

According to unconfirmed sources, the information was classified as Secret Restricted Data which means it would involve nuclear weapons data and may have concerned detection of underground nuclear weapons testing. Also unconfirmed, the person in possession of the information worked either in Technical Area 55 where all of the Lab’s plutonium is stored or in the X Division which handles nuclear weapons design data for a maintenance subcontractor of the Lab.

POGO also notes six previous security incidents at LANL since 9/11.

Full articles at the links. (AP, Defense Tech)

On changing missions. The Belmont Club takes a look at the US military's evolution from countryside battlefields to urban warfare: 'This exercise is interesting because it illustrates just how long it takes for an institution as large and complex as the US military to reorient itself from an old mission to a new one. For purposes of historical comparison it wasn't until the mid-1950s that the US adopted a coherent strategy on the use nuclear weapons — weapons which had been developed ten years earlier. ... One tacit assumption to Urban Resolve 2015 is that the fighting will take place in "enemy" cities. However there is the possibility that some of the urban fighting in the coming decades will take place in Western European cities, such as Paris. In that environment the intelligence, culture, governance and legal aspects of the problem may dominate the purely military. Maybe Belfast would be a better laboratory model than Baghdad.' Read the full post at the link. (Belmont Club)

Maliki rejects timetable. Debka: 'Iraqi PM Nouri al-Maliki angrily refutes US timeline plan for curbing violence and disavows US-led Sadr City raid. “I affirm that this government represents the will of the Iraqi people and no one has the right to impose a timetable on it,” said Maliki, refuting the statement from US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad in Baghdad Tuesday that the Iraqi government had agreed to a timeline for progress on security and the economy. The Iraqi PM complained he had not been consulted on a US-Iraq raid of the teeming Shiite Sadr City slum of Baghdad, which is dominated by the anti-US cleric Moqtada Sadr, and insisted “that it will not be repeated.” At least 4 killed and 18 injured in the fighting in Sadr City overnight. ...' (Debka)

Blair: No change in Iraq strategy. AP via Jerusalem Post: 'Britain will not change its strategy of staying in Iraq until that country's forces are ready to take over responsibility for security, Prime Minister Tony Blair said. He rebuffed calls for a quick withdrawal, saying it was crucial that British troops remain in Iraq as long as they are needed. "To do anything else would be a complete betrayal not just of the Iraqi people, but of all the sacrifices that have been made by our armed forces over the years," Blair said during his weekly House of Commons question and answer session. "There will be no change in the strategy of withdrawal from Iraq, only happening when the Iraqi forces are confident that they can handle security," he said.' (AP via JPost)

Israel grants residency rights to sex-trade victims. Jerusalem Post: 'From this point on, victims of the Israeli sex trade will receive temporary residence and work in Israel for the period of one year, Interior Minister Roni Bar-On announced on Wednesday. In an interview with Israel Radio, Bar-On added that the benefits will be granted regardless of whether the women testify against their abusers. Previously, the government had restricted such benefit to those who helped prosecute smugglers and sex-trade employers.' (JPost)

Terrorists to go free in Shalit deal. Arutz Sheva: 'In an interview with Israel Radio this morning, David Hacham, a senior advisor to the defense minister, confirmed reports that had appeared in the Arab press stating that Israel had agreed to free terrorists in a deal for the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit.' (A7)

West bickers, Iran builds nukes. ThreatsWatch:

Even though the Islamic Republic remains in defiant violation of the United Nations Security Council’s demand that it cease enrichment operations by August 31, Iran’s ambassador to Russia, Gholamreza Ansari, said that Tehran is anxious to restart nuclear talks regarding its nuclear program. Said the ambassador, “I am certain that Iran is ready for talks to begin as soon as possible, all issues can be discussed during these negotiations.” But the United States believes that Iran’s claims of being willing to discuss ‘all issues’ is little more than a stalling tactic, designed to buy the regime more time, month by month, for furthering its nuclear weapons program.

The United States likely does not view it coincidental that Iran’s re-stated desires for more talks, a call that is made by Iran on almost a daily basis, is accompanied today with news that a second Iranian 164-centrifuge cascade is in place and will soon be ready for operation. This according to IAEA head Mohammed ElBaredei, who said yesterday that “based on our most recent inspections, the second centrifuge cascade is in place and ready to go.” ElBaredei remains unconvinced that Iran is trying to acquire nuclear weapons, adding, “The jury is still out on whether they are developing a nuclear weapon.”

Also today, even as Russia recently earlier vowed to oppose and punishment of Iran through UN sanctions, implying a veto vote, reports today suggest that the United States and European diplomats are arguing over the Russian construction of Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor. ...

Steve Schippert's article concludes: 'This week could be a contentious week of diplomatic conflict for all involved as the issue of Iran sanctions nears the floor of the Security Council chambers.' (ThreatsWatch)

Commentary. There's a column by Melanie Phillips in USA Today about anti-Americanism in Britain. Go to the link to read the whole thing, but here's a key extract:

But British animosity toward the U.K.'s most important and historic ally is wider and deeper. Partly it derives from simple snobbery, the long-standing British belief that Americans are vulgar upstarts who lack the gravitas that Britain has accrued from a thousand years of history.

Probe further, however, and you discover anguish at the progressive junking of that history. Schools, for example, no longer teach the history or values of the British nation on the grounds that national identity based on a majority culture is viewed as "racist." Instead, they promote multiculturalism, the doctrine that minority value must have equal status to those of the majority. Loss of confidence in Britain's role in the world has demoralized its governing class so badly that it has come to believe that the nation state is the principal source of all ills from prejudice to war, and that legitimacy resides instead in supranational institutions.

So no international action can be taken without sanctification by that holy of holies, the United Nations. As a result, the British regard Bush's "unilateral" foreign policy with undiluted horror. This is made worse by disdain for Bush himself, regarded as a tongue-tied cowboy who actually believes in God — to the post-religious British, the nearest thing to a certificate of lunacy.

The biggest single cause of British anti-Americanism, however, is Israel. Despite being the target for more than half a century of genocidal Arab and Muslim aggression, Israel is widely perceived in Britain as the regional bully, and its acts of self-defense are viewed as the principal motor behind both the Middle East impasse and Islamic grievance because of its supposed refusal to allow the Palestinians to have a state of their own.

Read it all at the link. Kudos to USA Today for publishing Melanie Phillips' column. I'll just add that I think it's a good sign that Phillips is appearing in a popular, mass-circulation paper like USA Today.

Oppression of women occurs in many places and on many levels. The Israeli government's compassionate response offers hope to countless women and girls living in misery.