Update

As you'll have noticed, my posting break is now officially over. Morning Report has had its leave cancelled. And it's not like I haven't got other stuff going on. As I commented in today's Morning Report Stratfor's observation about the difficulty of managing multiple tasks hit home.

Yesterday evening I went on a canvassing trip in the Portland area with Basic Rights Oregon. I'm pleased to report that we had an amazingly successful night, and got lots of support from the people we contacted. I also came out of the closet as a Republican to a couple of the other volunteers, who handled it quite well, and put out feelers about any Log Cabin activity in the area.

Will be making a trip to the Bay Area in the near future, to visit The Next Generation (who's almost 11).

Meanwhile, the blogosphere rolls on. Judith is coordinating a blogburst in honor of Stephen Vincent. I had the honor of meeting Lisa Ramaci-Vincent last year, and there's quite a bit I want to say. I will get a post up by the end of the day.

Please visit Atlas Shrugs and take some time to read her posts (and view the videos) from Israel. I am not sure how soon she'll be posting from Israel again, so please keep Pamela and her family in your thoughts and prayers.

And Tisha b'Av starts tonight - the commemoration of the destruction of Jerusalem in ancient times. Something to ponder.

Winning or losing?

Michael Totten guestblogging at Instapundit writes that

Brett Stephens, Ralph Peters, and National Review think Israel is losing the war in Lebanon. That also means Lebanon and its rising democracy, as opposed to Hezbollah, are losing the war.

Let's start with the National Review piece, which begins:

We may not be losing in the Middle East, but we certainly aren’t winning.

Leaving aside the semantics of whether this says what Michael says it says, the NR piece argues that time is not on Israel's side.

But the administration is under extreme pressure to join the rest of the world in dictating an end to the Israeli offensive. For a vivid illustration of this, look no farther than secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who has been showing the strain of getting knocked around by other foreign ministers for the last two weeks.

Well, beauty is in the eye of the beholder. But the underlying assumption - that, as in the past, Israel will be able to continue its offensive only until the political momentum builds to stop it - may be wrong in this case. As this blog reported this morning, there are indications that international anti-Israel sentiment isn't quite what it once was:

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union foreign ministers called on Tuesday for an immediate end to hostilities in Lebanon, watering down demands for an immediate ceasefire at the insistence of the United States' closest allies in the bloc.

A joint statement adopted at a rare August crisis meeting of the 25-nation EU said the ministers called for an immediate end to hostilities to be followed by a political agreement for a sustainable ceasefire, French Foreign minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said.

The convoluted formula was agreed after four hours of talks as Israel intensified attacks on Hizbollah guerrillas in Lebanon and vowed to step up ground operations, defying calls for a ceasefire.

An initial draft circulated to the ministers by the EU's Finnish presidency said flatly: "The Council called for an immediate ceasefire."

However, Britain, backed by Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland and Denmark, insisted on the alternative wording and unanimity is required for EU foreign policy statements.

This clearly doesn't signal a worldwide outbreak of philo-Semitism, but it does suggest that the old rules may be due for modification this time around.

The NR piece goes on to point out that Bush's objective of a multinational force in southern Lebanon may prove unachievable, especially given that (as our friend Lebanon.Profile at LPJ has been reminding us) support for Hezbollah in Lebanon is on the upswing. NR goes on to speculate that "Israel might be forced to settle for another long war of attrition with Hezbollah."

Well, yes, a lot of things might happen:

The government of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agreed to "expanded ground operations in Lebanon," after an early morning vote by the Israel's security cabinet. Senior officers in the Israeli Defense Force have pushed for deploying Israeli troops as far north of the Litani River, but the Israeli government has been vague on this point. If the IDF pushes to the Litani River, this would be a shift in strategy from a week ago.

This post at CTB was linked on Seraphic Secret, which earlier cited the Bret Stephens piece.

Stephens declares:

Israel is losing this war.

This is not to say that it will lose the war, or that the war was unwinnable to start with. But if it keeps going as it is, Israel is headed for the greatest military humiliation in its history. During the Yom Kippur War of 1973, Israelis were stunned by their early reversals against Egypt and Syria, yet they eked out a victory over these two powerfully armed, Soviet-backed adversaries in 20 days. The conflict with Hezbollah--a 15,000-man militia chiefly armed with World War II-era Katyusha rockets--is now in its 21st day. So far, Israel has nothing to show for its efforts: no enemy territory gained, no enemy leaders killed, no abatement in the missile barrage that has sent a million Israelis from their homes and workplaces.

I'm having trouble following the logic here. The enemy is still able to fire katyushas into Israel - that clearly means that Israel has not won yet. To me, this means that Israel needs to keep whacking away at Hezbollah until the terrorists are no longer able to fire so much as a bottle rocket. But there's something else that's bothering me here ... I just can't quite put my finger on it. Shall we read on?

On July 12, Israel sat behind an internationally recognized frontier, where it enjoyed a preponderance of military force. It had deterrence and legitimacy. Hezbollah's cross-border raid that day was widely condemned within Lebanon and among Arab leaders as heedless and provocative. Mr. Olmert's decision to respond with massive force enjoyed left-to-right political support. He also had a green light from the Bush administration, which has reasons of its own to want Hezbollah defanged and which assumed the Israelis were up to the job.

But it seems they are not up to the job. The war began with a string of intelligence failures ...

Wait! It's all coming back to me now. You know, I could swear I've heard this someplace before. But back to Stephens: he goes on to argue that Israel is mistakenly pursuing a strategy that "assumes that Israel can take its time against Hezbollah" and relies heavily on airpower. Again, I think recent events cast doubt on both of these assumptions.

Stephens' final point is Peters' main one: Qana. Here's Stephens: '... in Qana ... an Israeli air attack reportedly caused the deaths of at least 27 people, including 17 children.Yes, Hezbollah bears ultimate responsibility here for deliberately placing its military assets among civilians. Yet the death of those children should be counted as a crime if Israel's purposes in Lebanon are basically feckless.' And Peters: 'THE airstrike on the Lebanese village of Qana has been a tragedy for Israel. A publicity debacle, the deaths of 57 civilians united Israel's enemies, complicated American support - and may lead to a cease-fire that rewards Hezbollah. The Qana attack can't be excused. But it can be explained.' Peters' "explanation": 'All efforts to make war easy, cheap or bloodless fail. If Israel's government - or our own - goes to war, our leaders must accept the price of winning. You can't measure out military force by teaspoons. Such naive efforts led to the morass in Iraq - and to the corpses of Qana.'

What a lot of silliness. Did anyone doubt for a minute that Hezbollah, when grown desperate enough, would be willing to manufacture a well-timed Israeli "atrocity"? Heck, you can even gauge the timeframe when each article was written by looking at the casualty counts: Ralph Peters must have written his column earlier, before the casualty count was revised downward.

The deaths of innocent women and children in Qana are a great tragedy, and the people responsible need to be held to account. But it is much too soon to draw any sweeping conclusions about "the myth of antiseptic techno-war" and similar blather found in Peters' column.

The basic assumptions of these three columns are (1) that international pressure will force Israel to abandon its mission before meaningful success is achieved; (2) that Israel has committed itself to a primarily air-powered campaign against Hezbollah, crippling its own chances of success; and (3) the incident at Qana represents a propaganda coup for the enemy, for which Israel has only itself to blame and from which Israel cannot recover. My armchair analysis is that all three of these assumptions will be proven wrong.

One thing everybody agrees on is that the fight needs to be taken to Damascus and Tehran. And I think it will be - not because we are losing, but because we are winning.

Night Flashes

Fidel Castro cedes power to brother: 'Fidel Castro, 79, would never give up power, even temporarily and to his own brother, if he weren't facing a serious medical crisis.' ... shots fired across Korean border - the Norks fired two rounds and the good guys shot back with six, I guess that's "disproportionate response" - anyway, not a peep out of the commies since then ...

The world's favorite disproportionate responder continues to send lots of rounds downrange, and Olmert says don't hold your breath waiting for that cease-fire: 'Olmert said bluntly that military operations would not end until Hizbullah had been pushed back from the northern border and its ability to harm Israel’s citizens neutralized' ... while 'Military sources said Monday night that the IDF now would make a concerted effort to achieve ground success through operations that the army has avoided until now' ... and Assad is focusing on 'regional challenges' ...

Meanwhile, that guy in the green helmet sure gets around ...

Military Equity Alliance Calls for an End to "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"

Winds of Change: Military Equity Alliance calls for an end to military anti-gay discrimination.

What I will say is that the US military has lost many good people to this policy already - and it isn't the military's fault. It's Congress who sets the rules, and that's where change must happen.

I've said this before and I'll say it again: gays should be allowed to serve openly. If we're at war, and we're serious about it, we should be serious enough to get the obstacles out of their way.

Here's the article cited by Joe Katzman:

Roxie Hoven considers herself a patriot, a preserver of freedom who was willing to work - and die - for her country. All the while, she felt oppressed.

During her nine years in the Navy, Hoven hid the fact that she is a lesbian. She made no hint of her sexual orientation but, she said, she endured harassment that eventually led her to leave the Navy. The military interviewed her co-workers and friends, interrogated her three times and threatened to search her home, she said.

Hoven was honorably discharged in 1995 after nine years of service.

No one else should experience that, Hoven told more than 50 people Saturday during a two-hour town hall meeting at the Fred Heutte Center. She and three other gay veterans from Virginia spoke out against the military's 13-year-old "don't ask, don't tell" policy. ...

News Roundup

Muslim attacker shoots six Jewish women in Seattle, killing one. Via Pajamas Media, the Seattle Times: 'All around Seattle on Saturday, people were grieving for Pamela Waechter, a woman they said was a mediator, a major contributor to the Jewish community, a force for bringing so many cultures together. ... Ms. Waechter was working at the Jewish Federation downtown Friday afternoon when a man walked into the building with a gun, announced that he was Muslim, said he was angry at Israel and shot six women, one after another. Ms. Waechter, annual-campaign director for the federation, died there. She was 58.' Gay Patriot weighs in on hate crimes and terrorism. Some details on that shooting:

SEATTLE — The man suspected in a fatal shooting rampage hid behind a potted plant in a Jewish charity's foyer and forced his way through a security door by holding a gun to a 13-year-old girl's head, the police chief said Saturday.

Once inside, police say, Naveed Afzal Haq opened fire with two semiautomatic pistols. One woman, Pam Waechter, 58, of Seattle was killed at the scene. Five more women were wounded.

Haq, 30, was ordered held on $50 million bail Saturday pending formal charges of murder and attempted murder.

Haq, a Muslim, told authorities he was angered by the war in Iraq and U.S. military cooperation with Israel.

Qana: Civilian deaths follow IDF attack, but connection unclear. Arlene Kushner, thru Israpundit: 'It appears that in the course of Israeli bombing in the Lebanese village of Qana, a building collapsed and some 60 civilians, including women and children, were killed. (See below as to why I say “it appears.”) It is exceedingly likely that you will have heard about this from various media sources and, at the same time, heard about what heartless and vicious people we Israelis are. ... Then there is this significant information: There was a roughly eight hour time lapse from when Israel targeted the building (about midnight) and when it collapsed (8 am). The IDF is now saying they cannot account for this. It is conceivable that the building was weakened and took time to buckle. But there is another possibility: That it was an explosion of Hezbollah stored weaponry that brought the building down and not the Israeli bombing.' And speaking of timing, Power Line showcases some mighty fast work by Arab graphics people.

LGF takes a look at Hezbollah weapons. Little Green Footballs posts photos - a veritable international arms bazaar - of weapons seized from Hezbollah. The little item pictured in the third, fourth, and fifth photos looks mighty familiar to this blogger.

Sydney synagogue vandalized. LGF: 'The Mufti of Australia, Sheikh Taj el-Din al Hilaly, last seen at LGF marching in a demonstration with thousands of Hizballah supporters, now acts surprised that a synagogue was attacked in Sydney.'

Mel Gibson's epiphany: Alcoholism, not Jews, the cause of his troubles. Mel Gibson has apologized for a string of anti-Semitic statements uttered after his arrest for drunk driving Friday night: "I disgraced myself and my family with my behavior and for that I am truly sorry. I have battled with the disease of alcoholism for all of my adult life and profoundly regret my horrific relapse."

Atlas Posts from Israel

If you haven't already, go read Atlas Shrugs. Some of us are reading and writing about Israel ... but people like Atlas go there. Check out her coverage of the mysterious seven-hour gap, the Cedar Revolution's condemnation of Hezbollah (if I read another NYT puff piece calling a pro-Hezbollah demonstration "pro-Lebanese", I'm gonna puke), and Syria's chemical missiles.

Stay safe, Pamela.

Venus, Mars, an Australian Passport, and Belgian Chocolate

Congratulations to Zoe, the brains behind A. E. Brain, on the first anniversary of her transition. You go, girl!

Go check out Zoe's blog. Liberal, pro-Bush, and a space geek ... what's not to like?

Update

Light posting to follow. I'm finding it necessary to focus on wrapping up a number of loose ends in my personal life - mostly unfinished pet projects and the like - so I will not attempt to post here on a daily basis until, probably, after mid-August. Morning Report will be going on leave.

In addition to those minor pet projects, there's one major project I want to devote some energy to - fiction writing. There's a space-based SF story I've been writing in serial form (meaning I have no idea where it's going) and I want to make some progress on this, and possibly finish it up. With that done, I should then be free to develop some ideas in a more serious way. And then ... ? Maybe try for print publication? Who knows?

Pacific Memories is finished. One project that I worked on sporadically for almost two years, I finally completed in a big burst of energy earlier this week. Pacific Memories is my father's unfinished memoir from World War II, which I've transcribed from his typewritten manuscript and posted on Blogger.

The manuscript was among my father's personal papers, which I retrieved from the basement of the family house at the time of my mother's death in 2003. I don't know when it was written.

I wish I could tell you that it's a tale of non-stop, thrilling combat action, but that's not what my Dad wrote. In fact, it appears he abandoned the project just before the real excitement started: the unwritten sixteenth chapter is titled "Marching Through New Georgia", but that's all he wrote, a title page with nothing after it. (Thanks, Dad! Grrrr.) Perhaps the fighting on New Georgia was so fierce that he trembled at the very thought of setting it down on paper? I'll never know.

But what he did write remains a detailed, down-to-earth, entertaining and witty account of the 37th Infantry Division's progress through the Pacific towards an ever-closer Japanese threat. Read it for the interest of a first-hand account of the Second World War, written by an intelligent and sensitive man who had quite a way with words.

Wilderness Vision. Another posthumous collection I've posted to the web is Wilderness Vision, a collection of my sister's poetry. (Stephanie died in 1992, at the age of 28.) If you haven't yet, pay a visit. She was extraordinarily gifted. The site represents nearly all of her extant poetry - over 50 poems - and includes pieces written when she was as young as 12. The poems are not arranged in any particular order. Some of these works earned her prizes in the Scholastic competitions from 1977 to 1981. I'm in possession of a box full of her manuscripts and letters, which I'm continuing to organize with an eye to producing a coherent narrative of her life and work - agan, maybe for print publication some day. But I don't plan any further updates to the website.

You can read her fiction at the site Iridescence. Some of the works are unfinished or fragmentary. Also, my father's creative writing is posted at Urban Renewal.

One more important site. This hasn't been my favorite site to work on, but I consider it one of the most important: The Iraqi Holocaust. I am no longer actively updating this, although I may add new material at a later date, perhaps in connection with the trial of Saddam Hussein. If you know somebody who believes that "the Iraq war war wrong", please consider sending them a link to The Iraqi Holocaust. Thanks.

Finally, one thing I've been feeling the need to do is to take some time off to just read and study about the Middle East - and about history and culture in general. Lately I've been feeling as if I'm just scratching the surface - there's so much going on, and I'm struggling to keep up with it, but I'd like to be able to write with a little more depth. I've got several books lined up on the shelf, plus I may set aside some time to read through the old Iraq the Model archives. Hopefully cutting back on quantity will allow me to improve the quality.

So, stay tuned. Posting will continue here, but at a more deliberate pace until I feel like I'm caught up on other stuff. Don't go away.

(Besides, where else could you read an epic-length post explaining why posting is going to be light?)

Lavender Alert

Washington State Supreme Court upholds marriage ban. Basic Rights Oregon:

This morning, the Washington Supreme Court issued a decision in Andersen v. King County, a consolidated case regarding Washington's ban on same-sex marriage.

The Court's lead opinion was authored by Justice Barbara Madsen, holding the Washington "Defense of Marriage Act" does not violate the Washington State Constitution. This decision overturns trial court decisions in King and Thurston Superior Courts in this case.

Signing Justice Madsen's opinion are Chief Justice Gerry Alexander and Associate Chief Justice Charles W. Johnson. Two members of the Court, Justices James M. Johnson and Richard B. Sanders agreed with the majority in result only, using a separate legal rationale in a concurring opinion authored by Justice James M. Johnson. Chief Justice Gerry Alexander also issued a separate concurrence in this case.

The Court had three dissenting opinions, one authored by Justice Mary E. Fairhurst which was signed by Justices Bobbe J. Bridge, Tom Chambers and Susan J. Owens. Justices Bridge and Chambers also issued separate dissents in this case.

Charges filed in Maine vandalism case. A lesbian couple in Poland, Maine were the victims of an appalling, homophobia-driven property crime. Now, charges have been filed against two juveniles as citizens rally in support of the victims. PlanetOut: 'More than 200 people, including the governor of Maine, gathered Saturday in Portland, Me., to support a lesbian couple whose home was rendered uninhabitable in what prosecutors are calling a hate crime. On Friday, the state attorney general's office filed a complaint against two boys, 12 and 14, under Maine's hate crimes law, one of the few such laws in the United States to recognize sexual orientation. Anti-gay bias motivated the boys to vandalize the Poland, Me., home of Linda Boutaugh and Keri Fuchs on July 1, according to police. The boys broke into the couple's mobile home late June 30, destroying furniture and appliances, breaking windows and spraying pesticides. Valuables, including a box that contained Fuch's father's ashes, were stolen. A car was severely damaged, and feces and urine were left in the car and the home.' 247Gay.com: 'More than 150 people braved the threat of rain and showed up at the rally in Monument Square, which was organized by Equality Maine. The crowd heard from a procession of speakers, including officials such as Gov. John Baldacci and Attorney General Steven Rowe, who denounced the incident and voiced support for Boutaugh and Fuchs. "I find that what happened in Poland was reprehensible," Gov. John Baldacci said, reports The Globe. "I came to the rally today to show my support on this issue. What happened here is not indicative of Maine people or Maine values." The couple, who drove to the rally from where they are now staying in East Millinocket, received long rounds of applause, even as they sometimes struggled to speak. "This is so very overwhelming," Fuchs told the audience, reports the Morning Sentinel.'

Marriage advocates launch ad campaign. AP via Gay.com: 'Three major gay rights groups are taking out full-page advertisements starting Tuesday in 50 newspapers nationwide declaring their determination to keep fighting for same-sex marriage rights despite recent court setbacks. The media campaign will cost $250,000; its organizers said it was the largest-ever purchase of print ad space by gay rights supporters. Roberta Sklar of the National Gay and Lesbian Task Force said the ads would run in papers around the country, from the New York Times to The Gazette of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, to gay weeklies in Houston, Atlanta and San Diego.'

Advances and setbacks in eastern Europe. Slovenia has legalized lesbian and gay civil unions with some ceremonial restrictions to make sure those people don't get the idea that they're, like, actually getting married or anything:

The Balkan republic of Slovenia has legalized same-sex unions but put restrictions on the ceremony, United Press International reported Monday. The measure allowing gay and lesbian couples to register their partnership went into effect Sunday, according to Belgrade's B92 radio station. Slovenia's gay and lesbian organizations, while welcoming the move as a concrete step, criticized the law as "insufficient," noting that it limits those attending the ceremonies to two partners and a local community registration official. Friends, relatives or any third person are barred from attending the ceremonies, which can be held only in a state office.

Meanwhile, more than two dozen people have been detained in Latvia for anti-gay attacks during a recent Pride celebration in Riga:

The charges stem from attacks on people who attended a Pride-themed service at the Anglican Church in Riga as part of the weekend festival, officially dubbed "Friendship Days." Anti-gay protesters threw tomatoes, eggs and bags of liquid excrement at people entering the church service, including European Parliament member Sophie Int'veld of the Netherlands, and riding buses to other Pride events. "Unhappily for the fascists, a number of the victims then went to a press conference for the foreign media. Thus, this hate crime was not only disseminated worldwide, but the journalists were able to experience first-hand the stench," a representative of Mozaika, one of the groups that organized Riga's Pride, wrote in a letter published Monday by UK Gay News.

Survey tracks healthcare experiences for lesbians, gay men. A recent survey finds something astonishing: gender bias in health care. 365Gay.com: 'A new study on LGBT health care shows that doctors react more negatively to women than to men who reveal they are gay. The study was conducted in New Zealand and forms part of the "Lavender Island" project - the first major study to be undertaken in the country about access to health care by members of the LGBT community. The results are reported in the latest issue of the Journal of Advanced Nursing. Researchers at Massey University surveyed 2,269 lesbian, gay and bisexual people to discover how they felt about revealing their sexuality and the reaction of primary healthcare providers, such as family doctors and practice nurses, when they did.'

Commentary. One of the problems of today's world is that the political landscape casts activists into two camps. On the one side, the "left-wingers" who see oppression everywhere except where it is most severe, that is, in the fascist regimes of the Middle East. And on the other side, "right-wingers", who are invested in emphasizing the virtues of Western society and so overlook its shortcomings, or worse, who tell activists that they should be grateful that they live in a society are not being stoned to death and should therefore shut up and stop complaining.

I refuse to join either of these groups. The search for justice isn't confined to one society, and addressing one set of issues does not - or should not - prejudice the importance of other issues. I expect that my regular readers understand this.

Where We Are Now

I just finished an evening of phone banking with Basic Rights Oregon. The woman I worked with was fired from her last three jobs because she is a lesbian.

Now, I'm glad I live in America. I'm glad I don't live in a fascist theocratic state where I have to live in fear of being tortured or executed by the government because I'm lesbian, or gay, or don't fit my socially-ordained gender role. That's great.

But we've still got a long way to go.

Condi: "We will prevail. They will not."

Via Arutz Sheva:

Visiting US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice Tuesday called for a new Middle East, the same phrase former US President Bill Clinton used when promoting the Oslo peace plans in the 1990s.

"It is time for a new Middle East," she said. "It is time to say to those that don't want a different kind of Middle East that we will prevail. They will not." She spoke with leaders of the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority (PA). Whereas President Clinton's plan was based on proposed agreements between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization headed by Yasser Arafat, Secretary Rice said an end to violence must be conditional. American officials are not interested in returning to the Middle East to repeat current efforts to stop terrorists from disrupting a cease fire, she explained.

Shazia Khalid Awaits Justice

The Muslim Woman:

The Sui rape incident dates back to January 2005, when Dr. Shazia Khalid, the 30-year-old doctor was blindfolded and raped in a dark room. This rape case triggered off a gory conflict among the Pakistan Army the tribal community. The Bugti tribesmen accused Captain Imaad (Officer Defence Security Guards} of committing the heinous crime.

TOI report:

“‘If you scream, I’ll take it and burn you alive…”

Read the rest at the link.