Jonathan Spyer:
The Islamic State is on its way to ceasing to exist as an entity
controlling significant territory. This process is set to continue many
months. But IS, having lost tens of thousands of fighters and with the
flow of new recruits drying up, facing enemies with complete control of
the skies and vast superiority in numbers and equipment, has no means
of reversing the trend.
In Assad’s war further west, meanwhile, the rebellion is in retreat
and its eventual eclipse seems a near certainty. The regime, with its
Iranian, Russian and Hizballah allies, is currently seeking to reduce
and destroy isolated rebel held enclaves in the midst of regime-held
territory in western Syria. Hence the attacks on eastern Ghouta, and
on Wa’er in the Homs area. Once this is done, the pro-regime forces may
well turn their attention to south west Syria, and eventually also to
rebel-held Idleb province in the north.
The regime is also now engaging in the war against Islamic State.
Government forces reached the Euphrates River this week, after sweeping
through IS-held territory in the east Aleppo countryside.
As the direction of events becomes clear, so the possibility emerges
of the Iran-led alliance achieving an overall victory in the Syria and
Iraq wars...
For more on what such an outcome might look like - and how it might be prevented - go to the
link.
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