Democracy in the Middle East

I don't have time right now to write a full post, but I want to direct your attention to these three very good pieces on the subject of democracy.

ITM: A place for democracy in the Middle East?

If we go back in time to the latest colonial era we’d see that the intellectual environment at that time was far more developed than at the later stages of independence and national governments, we’d see that freedom of press and expression was fairly better than what we had at later times and even religious parties we’re going through a phase of reevaluating their history and ideologies; at that time there were many religious reformists who were calling for rereading our history and were searching for dialogue channels with the western civilization. Even the Muslim Brotherhood-to which most current Islamic parties belong-we’re more ready to talk, discuss and reform than they are now and at that time, this was considered a leap on the road of reforming the religious thinking.

But the independence wave that came later mostly through military coups allowed the pan-Arab nationalists to take over and impose their point of view on the peoples; they took away freedoms of speech and though and oppressed everyone that didn’t follow their ideology. The people found themselves stuck with one leader, one party and one opinion to follow while all kinds of opposition were either eliminated or severely marginalized.

This was at least the case in Iraq for decades and the same applied to the rest of the neighborhood more or less.

In Iraq were not allowed group or meet for any reason outside the approval of the party and it was officially considered a crime for a number of people to gather and talk politics, the charge that I remember too well was that “they are grouping” and that was enough for conviction. That’s why each and every meeting required the approval of the government before it could be held.
However there was one place that the government couldn’t stop people from meeting at, that was the mosque.

Michael Ledeen: Choosing Tyranny

When people say, as they often do, with a glint of ethnic or cultural superiority in their angry eyes, that Arabs or Africans or Persians or Turks just aren't "ready" for democracy, that such people prefer tyrants, or that they have no history of democracy and are hence incapable of it, or they have no middle class, without which no stable democracy can exist, or they believe in Islam, which brooks no democracy, I try to remind them that some of the worst tyrannies came from highly cultured Christian countries with glorious democratic and humanistic traditions.

Neo: Liberal vs. Illiberal Democracy

It's true that the US has encouraged the spread of democracy in the Middle East and elsewhere. But it's a major oversimplification to imagine that America--or, for that matter, those dread neocons--think democracy by itself is any sort of answer to anything at all, except a way to give Jimmy Carter some more business in his old age.

To anyone who may have misunderstood, I declare here and now that democracy, by itself, is not "the answer." It is, however, part of the answer.

A more complete "answer" would go something like this: it's democracy, coupled with protection of human and civil rights (including those of minorities and woman), and widespread education that avoids indoctrination in mindless hatred. The goal is liberal democracy.

New Portland Blog: Ms. Fanni

Please welcome Ms Fanni's Neighborhood to the blogosphere. Won't you please ... ?

Morning Report: January 25, 2006

Harper wins, Conservatives gain in Canada vote. Conservative Party Leader Stephen Harper emerged the winner in Canada's national election, after incumbent Prime Minister and Liberal Party Leader Paul Martin conceded defeat and resigned his post as party head Monday night. In addition to capturing the office of Prime Minister, the Conservatives gained a plurality in the Canadian Parliament - but not, as Harper acknowledged, an absolute majority: "Although Canadians have voted for change, they have not given any one party in the House of Commons a majority. They have asked us to cooperate, to work together and to get on with tackling the real concerns of ordinary working people and their families," said Harper, quoted in the Telegraph. The CBC has a complete roundup of Canadian election news along with complete results by region and riding (blue means Conservative and red means Liberal here). Kate at Small Dead Animals is happy. Gay and Right has some thoughts. The Belmont Club quotes a thoughtful comment by NDP's Jack Layton, and observes: 'In a certain mental universe the poll victory of Stephen Harper is not one particular outcome in a long series of elections, a process in which sometimes you lose, sometimes you win. It's the northern equivalent of the US Presidential election of 2000. Those who think along those lines do not simply want to win the next election but demonize the enemy and smash them; just as some want to end the reign of Halliburton and BushChimpHitler and establish a progressive hegemony forever. While this mentality is confined to a few, this minority by its militance often sets the agenda. ...' Read the whole post at the link. (various)

Morning Report: January 23, 2006

Iran roundup. Arutz Sheva: 'World renowned investigative reporter and terror expert Kenneth R. Timmerman, author of the bestselling book "Countdown to Crisis: the Coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran," and Carl Limbacher, reporter for NewMax.com, reveal that the US and Israel will destroy Iran's nuclear facilities in less than 10 weeks from now.' Forbes: 'Swiss banking giant UBS AG said Sunday it has stopped doing business with Iran because of the company's economic and risk analysis of the situation in the country. UBS will no longer deal with individuals, companies or state institutions such as Iran's central bank, said company spokesman Serge Steiner. A similar policy is also being implemented in the case of Syria, he said. All existing business with customers in Iran will be canceled, but Iranians in exile are not affected by the decision, Steiner said, confirming an article in Swiss weekly SonntagsZeitung.' Via Regime Change Iran. Debka adds: 'Tehran plans a nuclear weapons test before March 20, 2006 – the Iranian New Year, moves Shahab-3 missiles within striking range of Israel. Reporting this, the dissident Foundation for Democracy in Iran, a US-based watch group, cites sources in the US and Iran. The FDI adds from Iran: on June 16, the high command of the Revolutionary Guards Air Force ordered Shahab-3 missile units to move mobile launchers every 24 hours instead of weekly. This is in view of a potential pre-emptive strike by the US or Israel. Advance Shahab-3 units have been positioned in Kermanshah and Hamad within striking distance of Israel, reserve launchers moved to Esfahan and Fars. The missile units were told to change positions “in a radius of 30-35 kilometers” and only at night. DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources add: FDI reporting has a reputation for credibility. Western and Israeli intelligence have known for more than six months that Iran’s nuclear program has reached the capability of being able to carry out a nuclear explosion, albeit underground. It would probably be staged in a desert or mountain region and activated by a distant control center. Tehran would aim at confronting the Americans, Europeans and Israelis with an irreversible situation. At the same time, an explosion of this sort would indicate that Iran is not yet able to produce a nuclear bomb that can be delivered by airplane or a warhead adapted to a missile. The stage Iran has reached is comparable to Pakistan’s when it conducted its first nuclear tests in the nineties and North Korea’s in 2001. All the same, an Iranian underground nuclear blast, which will most probably be attempted on March 22, would turn around the strategic position of all the parties concerned and the Middle East as whole. The question now is: will the United States, Israel or both deliver a pre-emptive strike ahead of the Iranian underground test - or later? Or will Washington alternatively use the event to bring the UN Security Council round to economic sanctions? Tehran is already organizing to withstand economic penalties. For Israel, the timing is getting tight in view of its general election on March 28. Acting prime minister Ehud Olmert must take into account that a ruling party which allows an Iranian nuclear explosion to take place six days before the poll would draw painful punishment from the voter.' (A7, Forbes via RCI; Debka)

ITM: Mehdi Army to defend Iran. Meanwhile, Mohammed at Iraq the Model writes: 'The leader of Mujahideen, defender of faith, future Ayatollah and higher leader of the Mehdi Army (may God keep him safe) Muqtada al-Sadr announced from Tehran during his latest visit to Iran that al-Mehdi Army will defend any neighboring or Muslim nation that comes under foreign invasion.
The statement was made during a meeting with Ali Larijani, Iran’s national security advisor who is also in charge of Iran’s nuclear program. ... Poor Iraq, the new parliament will have 30 of the soldiers of the Mujahid leader, while those who carry PhDs like Kubba, Chalabi, Dabbagh or, or, or….got nothing… I can’t blame anyone for this because this is what a great percentage of Iraqis chose and I won’t blame those Iraqis for their choice since for decades, they didn’t enjoy a healthy environment that allows objective thinking. Like on Iraqi journalist said; the defeat of the seculars is a great loss for those who won the elections.' (ITM)

True Security Begins With Regime Change in Iran

As House Resolution 398 (May 06, 2004) has rightly recognized, the illegitimate government of the Islamic Republic of Iran has engaged, and continues to engage, in efforts to acquire nuclear weapons. Such weapons would pose an immediate threat not only to Iran's neigbors, but ultimately to the entire world.

The cruelty of the IRI regime is well known and abundantly documented. The regime has been implicated in assassinations throughout the Middle East, Europe, and the United States; the murder of more than 100,000 Iranians; continuing policies of rape, torture, and arbitrary imprisonment as political tools; and the kidnapping of thousands of women and girls for sale into prostitution and slavery.

According to the Department of State report released by the Department of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor on February 25, 2004: “The Government's poor human rights record worsened, and it continued to commit numerous, serious abuses. The right of citizens to change their government was restricted significantly. Continuing serious abuses included: summary executions; disappearances; torture and other degrading treatment, reportedly including severe punishments such as beheading and flogging; poor prison conditions; arbitrary arrest and detention; lack of habeas corpus or access to counsel and prolonged and incommunicado detention. Citizens often did not receive due process or fair trials. The Government infringed on citizens' privacy rights, and restricted freedom of speech, press, assembly, association and religion.” These and other abuses clearly indicate that the regime constitutes a grave threat to the people of Iran and to free people everywhere.

It has come to our attention that Israel and/or the United States may be contemplating a pre-emptive military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. If the United States follows a policy based exclusively on the nuclear issue, however, the results will be catastrophic both for the Iranian people and, ultimately, for the Middle East and the world. Merely striking at Iranian nuclear facilities would at best delay the regime's nuclear program, driving it deeper underground; would certainly provoke even harsher measures against the Iranian people; and would likely lure the West into a false sense of security with the mullahs of the IRI regime plotting their ultimate retribution against America, Israel, and all others who have stood in their way.

The Islamist regime continues to actively undermine American efforts to rebuild Afghanistan and Iraq. Regime-backed agents and mercenaries are killing American soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines every week. To wait until Iraq and Afghanistan are “secure” before confronting the Iranian mullahs is folly; rather, the United States must take the battle to the enemy in Tehran.
The vast majority of freedom-loving Iranian people support the right of Israel and all of Iran's Middle Eastern neighbors, as well as the United States, to live in peace and security. Therefore, it is in our common interest that:

1. President Bush must support clear and open policy calling for regime change in Iran.
2. The Administration must abandon its policy of “Afghanistan yesterday, Iraq today, Iran maybe tomorrow”, and confront the threat from the IRI regime immediately.
3. President Bush must deliver an ultimatum to the IRI's primary hidden supporters (Britain) and secondary supporters (France, Germany, EU, Japan, Canada, Russia, and China) to stop giving economic assistance, intelligence assistance, or other assistance to the regime. The EU, in particular, should not use resources stolen from the Iranian people to finance its own failed welfare state.
4. The United States must deliver an unequivocal ultimatum to the Iranian regime to step down peacefully and immediately, and transfer power to a team of Iranian, Iranian-American leaders; this team would set up a referendum under US and international supervision with military presence of US, Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands in Iran as the peacekeeper. If the mullahs do not agree to step down peacefully, then the US should provide all necessary financial and military support for freedom-loving Iranian opposition both inside and outside Iran to remove the regime in a short period of time.

The Bush Doctrine advocates America's active role in supporting freedom, democracy, and human rights throughout the world. We call on the Government to act in accord with this wise and noble policy, and help the Iranian people achieve their dream of a free and democratic Iran.

"Human beings are all members of one body.
They are created from the same essence.
When one member is in pain,
The others cannot rest.
If you do not care about the pain of others,
You do not deserve to be called a human being."
A Quote from Famous Persian Poet Saadi Shirazi
( 13th century Persian poet, from Shiraz the birthplace)

Please take a moment to sign the petition, if you haven't yet, here:
True Security Begins With Regime Change in Iran

ITM: Not the scale, but the fact of fraud is Maram's political lever.

Iraq the Model reports:

The international investigation team that came to Iraq to check on election results announced that they are delaying the announcement of their report until Thursday.
The interesting thing about this is that the team said they’d disclose their report after the team members leave Iraq! This suggests that the team wants to avoid upsetting any particular Iraqi party while they are still here.

Parties that opposed the preliminary results such as Maram have high hopes on this report; not because they think it can grant them more seats in the parliament as everyone knows now that final results won’t be much different from the preliminary ones but rather because those parties want something that officially proves fraud has taken place regardless of the size of this fraud. It’s just the mere idea that any proven fraud will give Maram and the like more bargaining power to face the UIA with and they think that then, the UIA will not be able to force its point of view regarding the formation of the government and thus will have to reach a compromise with the others and give them a better share. ...

Read the rest at the link. Mohammed also points out that the greatest danger in Iraq is not the increasingly fragmented and isolated al-Qaeda but "the possible interference of the neighbors in Iraq’s internal affairs to destabilize the country and impede the political process". The Syrian and Iranian regimes have an interest in making Iraq look like a quagmire because, they reason, as long as Washington perceives itself as being "bogged down" in Iraq, the regimes in Tehran and Damascus are safe.

I'm hoping they've miscalculated.

Yes, I'm fine, thanks for asking.

Have been preoccupied with personal stuff the last week or so, but I'm OK and should be back to posting again very soon. Thanks as always for your visits.

Morning Report: January 9, 2006

Iran: Revolutionary Guards commander, 12 lieutenants killed in air crash; Zionist conspiracy suspected. Debka reports: 'Head of Iranian Revolutionary Guards ground forces Gen. Ahmad Kazemi and 12 deputies killed in plane crash in NW Iran. Iran claims to have caught an Israeli spy. The small Falcon executive jet came down near Oroumieh, 900 km north of Tehran, according to an announcement from Iran’s state news agency. DEBKAfile’s Tehran sources note the high importance of the dead commander who was appointed only three months ago. Another of the victims was head of the RG intelligence branch. Kazemi, for six years chief of the RG air force, was one of the fathers of Iran’s aggressive military doctrine. Our Iran experts’ first premise is that the crash was engineered by opposition factions to president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad within the regime in an effort to stem the increasing encroachments of state institutions by his backers, the radical Revolutionary Guards. There is no information on the “Israeli spy’s” identity. DEBKAfile’s Tehran sources suggest the purported capture may have been timed to coincide with the plane crash by the same group which sabotaged the plane to shift responsibility to Israel.' Jerusalem Post has this: 'It was the second time in two months that a military plane has crashed in Iran. On both occasions, the planes were carrying passengers and attempting to make an emergency landing. In Monday's crash, the plane, a Falcon of the Revolutionary Guards, was trying to make an emergency landing at Oroumieh, 900 kilometers (560 miles) northwest of the capital, Tehran, state television reported. The plane crashed because its landing gear jammed, preventing the wheels from being fully deployed, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported.' Lots more reporting and comment at Free Iran. ShrinkWrapped offers the following analysis: 'The Arab world thrives on conspiracy theories and have not only demonized Israel and the United States, but in the process have created the image of Americans and Jews as giants and supermen. In keeping with such "thinking", I would suggest we start the rumor that the Mossad and the CIA were behind this.' Morning Report endorses the conspiracy theory. (various)

Old Cairo. Michael Totten has a fascinating and unforgettable post on his tour of Old Cairo by night. Michael - whose philosophy is "a bomb only explodes once" - meets up with Big Pharaoh and visits old mosques, the marked at Khan al-Khalili (exotic, even to Michael), Al-Azhar University (where a certain blind sheik once taught), and an old mansion. Don't miss this post, with great writing and amazing photographs. (MJT)

Like a ship out of a fog. The Belmont Club posts a roundup of recent developments, and wonders 'whether larger political upheavals are in the offing in the Middle East. The three collateral unknowns are Syria, Iran and Israel.' Wretchard concludes: 'The relative clarity of vision with which the US entered 2002 is gone, it's place taken by a political class which has demoralized itself in despite of historically unprecedented success. Of the pillars that held up the political world in 2003 only a few remain standing. Arafat dead; Sharon in a coma; Schoeder a factotum of Vladimir Putin; Chirac a shadow of himself; the European Union moribund, the UN a standing joke; Blair badly weakned and America obsessed with cookies left on browsers on government websites. And 2006 just beginning. Interesting times indeed.' (Belmont Club)

Mark Steyn and the Death of the West

Jason Holliston at Columbia Gorge Dispatch links to the excellent but chilling Mark Steyn piece, "It's the Demography, Stupid". Steyn argues:

As fertility shrivels, societies get older--and Japan and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. And we know what comes after old age. These countries are going out of business--unless they can find the will to change their ways. Is that likely? I don't think so. ...

Also via Jason,Lileks weighs in:

The telling line in Steyn's piece quotes that fine Gaul Jean-Francois Revel: "Clearly, a civilization that feels guilty for everything it is and does will lack the energy and conviction to defend itself." I’ve read a lot of Revel; a great man and a profound, clear thinker. Lucky for him, he is old, and will not see his fears made manifest. Guilt is a problem, but it’s not the entire enchilada. It’s guilt married to a peculiar belief that Western Civilization is unique only in its sins. The only thing Western Civ really gave the world was slavery, imperialism, war, and capitalism; the fact that we have eliminated or diminished or abbreviated those sins is due not to anything inherent in Western Civ but some overarching, free-floating Enlightenment unmoored from the cultures that produced it. The world began in 1968, and owes nothing to what came before; if we wish to combat the regrettable enthusiasms of some other cultures whose animus appears religious, we should deconsecrate the cathedrals in order to set an example and light the way. Religion is the enemy to the transnational progressives, because religion holds up laws and codes and rules the wise burghers of Belgium cannot amend.

Lileks worries about those who "see threats and perils everywhere except where there are, you know, threats and perils." ShrinkWrapped relates an exchange with a commenter who also has an interesting sense of proportion:

Last week I posted Liberalism's Alter Nation, not one of my finest efforts but it did trigger an interesting exchange with Gary Farber who posts at Amygdala, a very interesting , often entertaining blog where he writes about science fiction (at least part of the time) which gains him significant points in my estimation. Among his comments on the post were two that I think are exceptionally revealing and underlined the most profound cause of the disconnect between the right and left in this country today.

In his first comment on my post Gary said:

The threat of Islamic terrorism is, in context, comparatively trivial, and no justification whatever to give up the liberty our country holds sacred.

Except at the extremes of left and right, it seems to me that this is the key breaking point in our discourse. If Gary is correct in saying that al Qaeda and Islamic terrorism present a "comparatively trivial" threat, it logically follows that one would be much less concerned about such issues as media bias, the left's conscious and unconscious assault on our war efforts, "whistle blowers" outing the NSA surveillance program, and a whole host of other disputed problems. On the other hand, if you believe, as I do, that Islamic terror represents an existential threat to the West, then the leaks about the NSA program in the New York Times and Washington Post become a major issue of treasonous behavior from the media conjoined with opportunistic and suicidal behavior by the left side of the political divide.

It is impossible to overstate the significance of this fundamental disagreement on basic assumptions.

However, Shrink holds out hope for an ongoing conversation, and some follow-up comments by Gary provide encouragement. Go to the link to read the rest of Shrink's post, and (in the comments) Gary's clarification of his own position.

Meanwhile, Big Lizards posts a rebuttal by Dafydd, countering some of Steyn's more pessimistic projections:

The essay is brilliant, persuasively argued, and displays the passion Steyn has for Western Civ. Fortunately, it suffers from one terrible flaw that spoils everything: it is a classic example of discredited static analysis. ...

Meanwhile, Steyn has a more upbeat piece in the print edition of National Review (issue date December 31, 2005) called "The Defeaticrats." (HT: NYC LiberalHawks) You've got to get the print issue, or else be a subscriber to read it online; but I'll leave you with this quote: "The tragedy is that, on so-called “liberal” terms, this is a war Democrats ought to be gung-ho for..."

Exactly so. As many of us have been saying all along.

Morning Report: January 8, 2006

Hugh Thompson, hero at My Lai, dies. The helicopter pilot who risked his life to prevent further atrocities by American soldiers has died. On March 16, 1968, Hugh Thompson and his two crewmates came upon the horrifying scene of Vietnamese civilians murdered by US troops. Thompson confronted Lieutenant Calley, who had ordered the massacre, and acted immediately to prevent further loss of innocent life. Bill at Argghhh! has the rest, and Armed Liberal has a tribute. (various)

DeLay abandons quest to resume House Majority Leader role. News reports announce that former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R - Texas, 22nd dist.) will not seek to regain his former title in the wake of the Abramoff scandal. 'Rep. Tom DeLay, the defiant face of a conservative revolution in Congress, stepped down as House majority leader on Saturday under pressure from Republicans staggered by an election-year corruption scandal. "During my time in Congress, I have always acted in an ethical manner within the rules of our body and the laws of our land," the Texas lawmaker told fellow Republicans in a letter informing them of his decision. Still, referring to criminal charges he faces in his home state, he added, "I cannot allow our adversaries to divide and distract our attention." DeLay temporarily gave up his leadership post after he was charged, but always insisted he would reclaim his duties after clearing his name. His turnabout cleared the way for leadership elections among Republicans buffeted by poor polls and by lobbyist Jack Abramoff's confessions of guilt on corruption charges in connection with congressional wining and dining. ...' (AP via Yahoo)

Iran regime skips negotiations, reactivates nuclear centers. New York Times: 'Iran threw negotiations over its nuclear program into disarray on Thursday, abruptly canceling a high-level meeting with the United Nations' monitoring agency in Vienna. The leader of Iran's negotiating team was said to be returning to Tehran. The unexpected turn of events stunned and frustrated officials of the International Atomic Energy Agency and foreign diplomats, who scrambled to make sense of Iran's decision.' Morning Report is sure they're still scratching their heads over that one. BBC: 'Iran says it will resume nuclear fuel research on Monday, despite international appeals to desist.
Officials say seals at nuclear research centres will be removed, ending a two year suspension. The European Union has warned such a move could jeopardise a return to negotiations on Iran's sensitive nuclear ambitions. Resuming the research would mean all of Iran's nuclear activities, apart from uranium enrichment, are active again.' (NYT, BBC)

Rice: US has votes for Iran referral. Washington Post: 'Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said yesterday that the United States and its European allies have the votes to bring Iran before the U.N. Security Council for possible censure over its nuclear ambitions, signaling increasing skepticism that continued negotiations with Iran will ever succeed. "The Iranians are digging their own hole of isolation deeper and deeper," Rice said at a breakfast with State Department reporters, referring to Iran's announcement this week that it will resume nuclear fuel research ...' (WP)

Allawi to lead Sunnis; Erbil and Suleimania administrations to unite. ITM: 'Stage two of the current phase of the political in Iraq which we anticipated a few days ago has just begun and its beginning is marked by the emergence of a new large political bloc. The new bloc was announced today in Baghdad after the largest three blocs of Maram-the Iraqi list, the Accord Front and al-Mutlaq’s Dialogue Front-signed an agreement to form one unified political body. This agreement will grant the new political body a significant political weight with a total of approximately 80 seats in the parliament and with good prospects for reaching something close to 100 seats if a few other smaller lists like Mishaan al-Juboori’s list, the Islamic union of Kurdistan, Turkmen and Christians chose joining it. Of course these numbers are not final until the election commission gives the final count and the international investigation team verifies those results and finishes studying claims of fraud.
Anyway, now the equation seems easier to read with only three variables instead of four or five! Allawi who appeared in a press conference today after a relatively long hiatus emphasized again that talking about forming the government should take place only after the investigation is over. Adnan al-Dulaimi and Salih al-Mutlaq were standing behind Allawi during the press conference which means that the two men have given Allawi the leadership of the new alliance. Allawi stressed that the new bloc rejects and condemns terrorism, of course this is something not unusual from Allawi but I think that Allawi this time was speaking on behalf of al-Dulaimi and al-Mutlaq who have recently been accused so many times by the UIA of backing terrorism. ... The day’s other big event is something that has been awaited for quite along time, and it is an achievement of special importance for the Kurds in Iraq, today Masoud Barzani announced that the KDP and PUK have finally reached an agreement to unite the two Kurdish administrations in Erbil and Sulaymaniya. It’s worth mentioning that since after 1991, the Kurdish region was run by two separate administrations; one by the KDP in Erbil and Duhok and the other by the PUK in Sulaymaniya.' (ITM)

Morning Report: January 5, 2006

Israeli PM Ariel Sharon in critical condition. Israel's Prime Minister Ariel Sharon remains in extremely grave condition at this posting. News reports indicate that he has had a third brain operation in response to his recent stroke. Debka reports: 'His third operation Friday relieved pressure on the brain and removed clots from previous procedures. There is no active bleeding. A catheter is fitted in his brain. Latest CT shows significant improvement.' The Jerusalem Post says doctors are expected to release an update soon; JPost also offers related links. Dreams Into Lightning will post on any new developments. (various)

Iran seeking showdown to avert regime change? Just posted at Regime Change Iran, "Alan Peters" paints a disturbing picture of the Iranian regime's latest tactics: 'Analysts watching Iran on a daily basis were not taken by surprise by the Islamic Regime not showing up at the International Atomic Energy Agency on January 05, 2006, since reports out of Tehran have for the past weeks been mentioning President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad's office privately leaking to the Tehran newspapers that Iran already has four nuclear weapons obtained from the Ukraine. Back in 1991/1992 three nuclear weapon devices the Mullahs had obtained from Kazakhstan were verified on ground in Iran and intelligence further estimates that Iran has totally between eight to 12 nuclear devices from the Soviet era. ... s Iran expecting an attack now that the more pragmatic Sharon is out of the picture or has U.S and Coalition information leaked to them of an impending strike to put an end to nuclear weapons falling into the hands of someone like Ahmadi-Nejad? The new regime in Iran has certainly tried to provoke the USA and Israel beyond the point of endurance. ... Alternatively, is Iran planning to set up a reactive retaliation in the Middle East by the USA from an attack through surrogates like the Hezbollah?' Full text at link. Doctor Zin comments: 'If his sources are correct and Ahmadinejad is leaking that Iran has nuclear weapons, it would appear he is intent on creating a crisis now! Many believe Ahmadinejad is setting a trap for the west because western military action at this time would likely be of a limited nature since the west is unprepared for a full scale occupation of Iran. Such a confrontation would likely end in a negotiated settlement leaving the regime in power, but would also likely include internationally agreed to security arrangements with the regime, a very dangerous proposition indeed.' (RCI)

New Year's Resolution #1

To be named as one of the "Top 10 Reasons People Find Jews Annoying" in public opinion polls worldwide.

Morning Report: January 4, 2006

Freedom for Egyptians: US press roundup. Freedom for Egyptians has an excellent analysis of recent American media coverage of Egyptian/US relations. Citing recent articles from the New York Post, the New York Times, and the Washington Post, FFE also notes an ominous silence surrounding Washington's stance toward Cairo: 'Reading the three articles apparently the American public opinion is beating the drums for pressuring the Bush Administration towards more firm measures towards the Mubarak ruling in Egypt that is proving its failure to heed to the U.S. calls to apply true political reform towards democracy and freedom. The Egyptian-US relationship is witnessing unprecedented silence over the past few months. The U.S. has started sending the messages decently when President Bush said in his famous speech in November 2003 that Egypt "has shown the way toward peace in the Middle East and now can show the way toward democracy in the Middle East." Actually, it was Iraq with the help of the US that was capable of showing the first budding democracy in the Middle East with exception to Israel. The message did not go through though. Then U.S. Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice paid a visit to Egypt last summer to give another signal that the U.S. is taking democracy in the Middle East seriously. The tone of the three reviewed articles is directly addressing the Egyptian President as the main obstcale in front of democracy and freedom in Egypt ...' Read the whole thing, and don't forget to bookmark Freedom For Egyptians. (FFE)

CTB: Pakistan arrests al-Qaeda-linked terrorists. The Counter-Terrorism Blog: 'There are news reports that Pakistan arrested Ghulam Mustafa, a.k.a. Ghulam Mustafa Tabassum, in Lahore 10 days ago. Tabassum is a leader in the outlawed Lashkar-e-Jhangvi militant group, which is linked to Al Qaeda.' Full story at the link, with more links. (CTB)

CNET: Microsoft censors Chinese blogger. CNET reports: 'Microsoft has admitted to removing the blog of an outspoken Chinese journalist from its MSN Spaces site, citing its policy of adhering to local laws. The blog, written by Zhao Jing, also known as Michael Anti, was removed from MSN servers on Dec. 31, according to investigative journalist and former CNN reporter Rebecca Mackinnon. She claimed that the blog was actively removed by MSN staff rather than being blocked by Chinese authorities. A Microsoft representative told ZDNet UK on Wednesday that it blocked Anti's MSN Space blog to help ensure that the service complied with local laws in China. ...' More at the link. (CNET)

Pyongyang exports slavery. Via Discarded Lies, the LA Times reports: 'Hundreds of young North Korean women are working in garment and leather factories like this one, easing a labor shortage in small Czech towns. Their presence in this recent member of the European Union is something of a throwback to before the Velvet Revolution of 1989, when Prague, like Pyongyang, was a partner in the Communist bloc. The North Korean government keeps most of the earnings, apparently one of the few legal sources of hard currency for an isolated and impoverished government believed to be living off counterfeiting, drug trafficking and weapons sales. Experts estimate that there are 10,000 to 15,000 North Koreans working abroad in behalf of their government in jobs ranging from nursing to construction work. In addition to the Czech Republic, North Korea has sent workers to Russia, Libya, Bulgaria, Saudi Arabia and Angola, defectors say. Almost the entire monthly salary of each of the women here, about $260, the Czech minimum wage, is deposited directly into an account controlled by the North Korean government, which gives the workers only a fraction of the money. To the extent that they are allowed outside, they go only in groups. ...' Read the rest of this horrifying and heartbreaking story at the link.

Israel army chief: IRI nukes can be destroyed. Regime Change Iran quotes a Dow Jones bulletin: 'Israeli military chief Dan Halutz Tuesday said Iran's nuclear program "can be destroyed," Israel's Army Radio said. The report quoted Halutz as making the comments during a conference at Tel Aviv University. ' Meanwhile, Hyscience cites a report from the Guardian: 'The Iranian government has been successfully scouring Europe for the sophisticated equipment needed to develop a nuclear bomb, according to the latest western intelligence assessment of the country's weapons programmes. Scientists in Tehran are also shopping for parts for a ballistic missile capable of reaching Europe, with "import requests and acquisitions ... registered almost daily", the report seen by the Guardian concludes. ...' (RCI; Guardian via Hyscience)

Debka: Syrian intel chief flees to London. Latest from Debka: 'Retired General Ali Duba, known as father of Syrian intelligence and loyal aide of Presidents Assad father and son has fled to London from Damascus. This defection follows the blunt charges leveled against Bashar Assad by former Syrian vice president Khalam Haddam last Friday, and the UN inquiry commission’s demand that the Syrian president make himself available for questioning in the Hariri assassination.' (Debka)

"Beyond the Mafia regimes." Syrian heretic Amarji: 'Corruption is the Number One obstacle in the face of development in our haggard part of the world. Entrenched regimes which act more like mafia conglomerates than actual governments can never produce the sort of reforms needed to help bridge the Development Gap separating us from the rest of the world. Therefore, those of us who are seriously interested in seeing this region living up to its full potential in terms of being able to provide for the material wellbeing of its various peoples have the awesome responsibility of trying to build alternatives to existing regimes from the ground up. ...' Be sure to follow the link to Dar Emar. (Amarji)

Ed on Abramoff scandal. Captain's Quarters reacts to the Abramoff scandal. Among his conclusions: 'The most significant development from this scandal will be the almost-certain disqualification for serious Presidential runs by anyone currently on the Hill, including Hill(ary) herself. Abramoff's stench will touch everyone currently noted for front-runner status, except possibly the most radical of Democrats, such as John Kerry -- who isn't going to get a second chance anyway. The next President of the US will be someone in a governor's seat now, and someone who hasn't served in Congress before. It could very well be Mitt Romney against Bill Richardson or Mark Warner. We'll see how it develops, but if the Abramoff corruption goes as deep as prosecutors say, look for an unprecedented series of power shifts in the next two cycles -- not partisan, but demographic, as American voters start looking for fresh choices.' (Captain's Quarters)

UPDATE: Fausta at the Bad Hair Blog has lots more links on the Abramoff scandal, and other important issues of the day. Go catch Fausta, who picks up where Morning Report leaves off.

Morning Report: January 3, 2006

Iraq Election Commisson: Results available January 10. Iraq the Model reports: 'today it has been announced that results will be available on January 10th. Aadil al-Lami from the election commission announced today that the international investigation team is in Baghdad now and had already participated in one of the commission’s sessions today where they observed the way the commission handles complaints as well as the way ballots are being handled. Maram’s demands for redoing the elections in several provinces are most likely to be forgotten after the UN and-repeatedly-the election commission said that violations were limited and do not require a rerun.' Full post at link. (ITM)

CTB: Algerian group want to establish al-Qaeda in Maghreb. The Counter-Terrorism Blog reports: 'Recently,four Algerians presumably close to the GSPC were placed in temporary detention in Spain. The Spanish judge, a Madrid native, Fernando Andreu suspects them of financial and logistical support to GSPC and of having tried to acquire in Grenade, dynamite Goma-2 in exchange for hashish ; interestingly this is the same dynamite that was used in the Madrid attacks of March 11, 2004. On November 24, 17 Islamists were arrested in Morocco, and according to the depositions made by one of them, they were affiliated with the Algerian group GSPC. GSPC has become probably the spearhead of the jihad in the Maghreb and in the countries of the Sahel. Their objective is to make the Maghreb a launching pad towards Europe under the auspices of the Algerian Islamist Khalid Abou Bassir ...' Full post at the link. (CTB)

The first Arab democracy.Michael J. Totten, writing in WSJ's Opinion Journal, sets the record straight: 'Iraq is not yet a model for anything. It looms, instead, as a warning. ... Lebanon, though, is an inspiration already--despite the assassinations and the car bombs that have shaken the country since February. I have an apartment in Beirut, and I recently traveled to Cairo. Arriving back here was like returning to the U.S. from Mexico. Almost everyone I met in Egypt--from taxi drivers all the way up to the elite--was profoundly envious when I said I live in Beirut. "It is a free and open city," I told them, but they knew that already. Many Americans and Europeans still think of Beirut as a hollowed-out, mortar-shattered necropolis where visitors are well-advised to bring a flak jacket. Egyptians, though--at least the ones I talked to during my stay--know the truth. Beirut is where the taboos in the region--against alcohol, dating, sex, scandalous clothing, homosexuality, body modification, free speech and dissident politics--break down. Its culture is liberal and tolerant, even anarchic and libertarian. The state barely exists. ...' Go to the link for the full piece. (Michael J. Totten via the Wall Street Journal)

Noises like Heaven

On Friday Nicole's conscience left her and she was invisible. She was quite surprised by this, although she had never taken very good care of her conscience. She called after it to explain but all it said when it turned to her, thin and shining, was, "You are free now." ...

Read the rest (in progress) here.

Quote of the Day

“When your victimhood is your empowerment, recovery is the enemy.”

- Tammy Bruce

Quoted by John Leo in Townhall.com

Morning Report: January 1, 2006

Iran: Mirai Glass workers protest working conditions. Workers at the Mirai glass factory protested overdue wages, according to recent reports via Regime Change Iran. Iran Focus: 'Tehran, Iran, Dec. 31 – Some 200 workers from the Miral glass factory held a demonstration and set fire to tyres south of Tehran Saturday morning in protest to their employers’ refusal to pay their overdue salaries. The glass workers gathered outside the site of their factory near the Tehran-Saveh Highway. They complained that despite five to 25 years of service, many of the workers had not received their wages for the past 10 months. State Security Forces were called in when the protestors blocked traffic on the road by burning tyres.' SMCCDI: 'Dozens of the "Miral Glass" workers created, today, roadblocks by setting materials and tires ablaze on the Saveh road of the Greater Tehran. The workers intended to protest against their poor conditions and the non payment for their wages. Security forces were sent in number in order to close the perimeters and avoid a spread of the action. Iran is the scene of daily protest actions by workers. Most nationalized companies are in stage of decomposition and bankruptcy due to the ill-policies of incompetent managers or frauds made by the political Mafia.' (SMCCDI and Iran Focus via RCI)

Turkish Press: CIA Director Porter Goss tells Ankara that Iran regime has nukes. Also via RCI, the English-language Turkish Press reports that 'During his recent visit to Ankara, CIA Director Porter Goss reportedly brought three dossiers on Iran to Ankara. Goss is said to have asked for Turkey’s support for Washington’s policy against Iran’s nuclear activities, charging that Tehran had supported terrorism and taken part in activities against Turkey. Goss also asked Ankara to be ready for a possible US air operation against Iran and Syria.' (Morning Report notes that since April 21, 2005, the post held by Mr. Goss is correctly titled "Director of the Central Intelligence Agency", as the report has it, and no longer "Director of Central Intelligence". The CIA Director now leads only the Central Intelliegence Agency proper; he reports to the Director of National Intelligence, who has authority over all US intelligence activities.) The Turkish Press article adds that 'The second dossier is about Iran’s stance on terrorism. The CIA argued that Iran was supporting terrorism, the PKK and al-Qaeda. The third had to do with Iran’s alleged stance against Ankara.' The PKK is a Kurdish separatist group that Annkara perceives as a major threat. (Turkish Press via RCI)

Debka: Top aide blasts Syria's Bashar Assad. Debka reports: 'A blistering attack on Bashar Assad was delivered by one of his closest aides, ex-vice president Khalim Haddam, over al Arabia TV Friday, Dec. 30. He denounced the Syrian president for spurning his advice to sack General Rustoum Ghazaleh, the former Syrian military intelligence in Lebanon, immediately after the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri last February. DEBKAfile’s Middle East sources note that Haddam insinuated in the interview that Assad had had pre-knowledge of the murder and could have prevented it. He clearly laid the crime at Ghazaleh’s door and made it clear that the general would not have acted without Assad’s authority. This veteran Syrian politician’s diatribe against Assad is unprecedented and shocked opinion in Damascus and the Arab world.' Amarji, now writing from Silver Spring, says: 'The VP bombshell will definitely overshadow what I was planning to do by way of ending this year. Still, I will end this year by sticking to my plan. The following link is to a little effort of mine meant to help the opposition inside Syria get their act together over the next few months. It is not something that would not have occurred on the minds of many of them, but I think that framing things in this manner might help stir a necessary and more focused debate.' ARABIC LINK: Managing Transition. English:

We in the Opposition should be able to:

• Provide the outline of a vision for the country’s future. More in this regard is the ability to provide a national bill of right a national convent than only a constitution.

• Enshrine the role of national symbols and help them in creating the aura necessary to warrant popular attention and respect.

• Support the emergence of effective public leaders by hiring a professional public relations firm and by making a more professional and effective use of the media, both traditional and electronic.

• Seek endorsements from prestigious and well-known figures from a variety of fields, including the artistic, intellectual and business communities.

• Send public messages to the country’s military and security officers and continue to appeal to their sense of fair play and patriotism, contrasting their interests and those of the country with the kind of adventurist policies that the Assad regime has adopted, and the disastrous course that the House of Assad has been steering.

• Encourage the formation and adoption of specific socioeconomic platforms designed to help address the country’s most serious developmental challenges as a way of garnering greater popular sympathy and eventually endorsement.

• Enlist support of the international community, including the major players in the region. Give contacts with them the right spin, highlighting them as signs of acceptance, credibility, legitimacy and competence.

• Never lose focus of the importance of maintaining a constant media campaign designed to denude the regime.

• Never waiver, or backtrack on our confrontational policies in the face of growing pressures.

• Maintain a united front regardless of whatever disagreements that exist in the background between our various groups. Differences can always be settled later using the desired democratic system itself.

German press: US readies Iran air strike. Once again thru RCI, the German media are reporting that: 'The Bush administration is preparing its NATO allies for a possible military strike against suspected nuclear sites in Iran in the New Year, according to German media reports, reinforcing similar earlier suggestions in the Turkish media. The Berlin daily Der Tagesspiegel this week quoted 'NATO intelligence sources' who claimed that the NATO allies had been informed that the United States is currently investigating all possibilities of bringing the mullah-led regime into line, including military options. This 'all options are open' line has been President George W Bush`s publicly stated policy throughout the past 18 months. But the respected German weekly Der Spiegel notes 'What is new here is that Washington appears to be dispatching high-level officials to prepare its allies for a possible attack rather than merely implying the possibility as it has repeatedly done during the past year.' (RCI)

ITM: Juma brings no rest. Mohammed at Iraq the Model reports: 'In what‘s supposed to be a “waiting day” in Iraq since it’s Friday, events and developments just kept surfacing and vacation day was just as eventful as any other day of the week. Baghdad now is suffering from a power siege that began after workers in one of Iraq’s largest refineries-the Baiji oil refinery-came under threats from terrorists who said they’d kill tanker drivers who transport oil products to the rest of the country. The oil ministry responded by shutting down the refinery as a measure to avoid loss in lives. This caused Baghdad to suffer from yet a new fuel and electricity shortage because the refinery supplies many power plants in the country. The electricity outages are most severe in the western part of Baghdad where residents are getting a little more than 6 hours/day. In a related development, Ahmed al-Chalabi has been asked to run the oil ministry after the minister Mohammed Bahr al-Iloom was forced to take a whole month off! Bahr al-Iloom said in an interview for al-Hurra that he was planning to submit his resignation after the government didn’t listen to his suggestion for a gradual increase in fuel prices instead of the sudden increase that was activated by the government days ago. Yet Bahr al-Iloom said he “was surprised by the government’s decision to give me an obligatory vacation for a whole month”. It’s worth mentioning that Chalabi is the head of the “energy committee” in the cabinet which apparently qualified him to replace the overthrown minister and makes one think that Chalabi will be the UIA’s candidate for the same post in the new government. I don’t want to talk about Chalabi Now but from what we see it seems that although Chalabi separated from the UIA, he is still considered as a loyal ally for the religious Shia parties.' More details, and analysis of recent events regarding the disputed elections, at the link. (ITM)

Koizumi notes US-Japan alliance. Xinhua via Pajamas Media reports: 'Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi reiterated Sunday in his new year address the priority of the Japan-U.S. alliance in Japan's relations with foreign countries, and vowed to carry through his reforms in the last year of his tenure. "The Japan-U.S. alliance and international cooperation serve as the foundation in the efforts to further the friendship with other countries, including the neighboring ones," the premier said in the statement. Bogged in a diplomatic standstill with the neighboring countries, especially China and South Korea over the history and other issues, Koizumi moved closer in 2005 to its traditional ally -- the United States.' Read full article at link. (Xinhua via PJM)

Russia's Gazprom to cut delivery to Ukraine. The Jerusalem Post reports: 'Russia's natural gas monopoly Gazprom on Sunday began reducing pressure in its lines to Ukraine as the deadline for stopping sales to the country came within minutes, news agencies cited a company spokesman as saying. Gazprom has said it will halt sales to the country of 48 million as of 10 a.m. (0700 GMT) after Ukraine refused a demand to more than quadruple the price it pays for Russian gas.' Full article at link. Pajamas Media has more. (JPost, PJM)