Morning Report: October 1, 2006

One bomb plot foiled, another one exposed? The weekend's events brought to light a large-scale plot to attack the Iraqi government; meanwhile, a country farther to the East made some charges about a deadly bomb attack that killed more than 200 of its citizens.

Major Green Zone attack thwarted in Baghdad. Gateway Pundit: 'Iraqi and US forces arrested the bodyguard of Sunni politician Adnan al-Dulaimi on Friday... Adnan was not happy. Adnan al-Dulaimi, head of parliament's main Sunni Arab bloc, the Iraqi Accordance Front, attends the opening of a parliament session in Baghdad September 5, 2006. (REUTERS/Ali Abbas) A Body guard for Adnan al-Dulaimiis an Iraqi Sunni politician and the leader of the General Council for the People of Iraq, was arrested by US and Iraqi forces yesterday. He was planning a massive attack in the Green Zone.' Healing Iraq: 'The Iraqi government declared a curfew in Baghdad Friday affecting both vehicles and pedestrians. The curfew is to run until Sunday morning. The last time the government imposed such a curfew was during the violence that followed the bombing of the Askari shrine in Samarra last February.' More at the link. The Belmont Club: 'Bill Roggio has an update on the story behind the curfew. "Richard Fernandez looked at the possibility that Sadr and the Madhi Army were the targets of the raid. However the politician in question was 'Adnan al-Dulaimi, leader of the Iraqi Consensus Front, the largest bloc of Sunni parties in Iraq, which holds about a sixth of the seats in Parliament,' according to the New York Times. A bodyguard of al-Dulaimi was the target of the raid. 'American forces detained an Iraqi working for one of Iraq’s most prominent Sunni Arab political leaders on Friday on suspicion that the man was helping to plan a multiple-car suicide bombing inside the Green Zone.'"' Iraq the Model: 'Earlier on Friday, al-Sharqiya and al-Hurra TV networks reported that the home of a senior lawmaker from a "large political bloc" was raided by a joint Iraqi-American force. The identity of the lawmaker was kept secret "due to the sensitivity of the case" the report said. The news also indicated the politician was arrested after a bomb factory and at least one VBIED were discovered during the raid. So some people are speculating that the current escalation is a reaction to the arrest.' Reporting on the curfew, ITM adds:
What can be noticed about this particular curfew is that it's being strictly enforced by Iraqi and US forces in Baghdad. During most previous days of curfew, vehicles and pedestrians were occasionally seen on the streets but this is not the case today. At least that's what I heard from people who tried to move around for shopping or other business. All, whether driving or on foot, were ordered to go home. ... there's a rumor in Baghdad that al-Qaeda was planning to launch a major offensive in Baghdad and takeover wide sectors of the city. The rumor that was heard for the first time several days ago speaks of 3,000 al-Qeada fighters who have entered the city for that reason.
Zeyad also says: 'The American military seems to have a good idea on the militias behind the mass sectarian murders in the Baghdad area over the last few months. But since those militas have strong ties to several officials and lawmakers in the current Iraqi government, as high up to Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki, and have thouroughly infiltrated security forces, I can't see how these militas can be confronted without alienating a large number of Iraqi officials that the U.S. is counting on, as well as the security forces they have trained to assume control of the country. ' And in an update:
Many Baghdadis are convinced that there was a coup planned in Baghdad and that the curfew was declared to clamp down any attempts by insurgents to topple the Iraqi government. Some have tied that with the detention of one of the bodyguards of MP Adnan Al-Dulaimi, head of the Sunni Accord front in parliament. An Iraqi army spokesman dismissed the rumours as creations of ‘Takfiris’, adding that the curfew had nothing to do with the arrest or a coup attempt, but was in response to intelligence information on wide scale attacks planned in Baghdad to relieve the pressure on terrorist groups in Anbar and Diyala.

Meanwhile, an insurgent website announced that leaders from several clans of the Dulaim tribe met today in Ramadi at an Iftar banquet held at the residence of a tribal leader from the Mahamda clan, known for its strong support for the insurgency. The tribal chiefs decided to excommunicate and ‘shed the blood’ of tribal leaders who had pledged to fight Al-Qaeda fighters in Anbar during meetings with PM Nuri Al-Maliki and American military commanders at Baghdad.

The tribal leaders are: Sheikh Sattar Bizai’ Al-Fitaikhan, leader of the Al-Bu Risha clan; Sheikh Hameed Farhan, of the Al-Bu Dhiyab clan; Sheikh Amer Ali Al-Salman, of the Al-Bu Assaf clan; and Sheikh Khalaf Al-Tarmouz, of the Al-Bu Ghanim clan. All are influential leaders of the Dulaim tribe.

An ultimatum was sent to their family members to disavow them within three days. Their clan members will meet to elect new leaders at a forthcoming meeting in an undisclosed location at Ramadi.

Sheikh Sattar Bizai’ Al-Fitaikhan had announced Friday that his clansmen had captured five Al-Qaeda members, three of whom were Yemeni, between Ramadi and Hit in the Anbar governorate. The 1st and 7th divisions of the Iraqi army backed by American troops are still stationed near entry points to Ramadi.

Debka: 'raqi parliament postpones Sunday sitting after revelation of plot to blow up Baghdad’s Green Zone government center. The plot prompted an unprecedented pedestrian and vehicular curfew in Baghdad from Friday to Sunday, during which there were no violent incidents. As soon as it was lifted, a car bomb exploded near a US patrol, killing one Iraqi and injuring four. The session postponed until Monday is for the second reading of a controversial bill on federalism. US officials indicated that a security guard working for senior Sunni politician Adnana al-Dulaimi was involved in a plot to stage a multiple car bombing in the Green Zone center of government and US and Iraqi military headquarters. The guard was arrested and Shiite politicians demanded an investigation. US and Iraqi forces took advantage of the curfew for counter-terror searches and arrests around the capital, including the Shiite slum of Sadr City. Thursday, gunmen ambushed a car carrying Kadhem Abdul Hussein, the brother-in-law of Judge Mohammad Oreibi al-Khalifa, who is presiding over Saddam Hussein`s genocide trial. He was killed and his son injured.' Follow the links for more information, and watch this site for updates. (various)

Tammy: Breakfast with Condi. Tammy Bruce on Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice: 'Resist" the enemy? Has she completely given up on the idea that an enemy needs to be defeated, not simply 'resisted'? I had so much hope for her. I will give her until the end of the year when it comes to Iran especially. If we have still made no headway with that pit by the end of December, it will be the undeniable proof of her failure and yes, incompetence, as Secretary of State.' Read the editorial by Bret Stephens. (Tammy Bruce)

Egypt, Jordan may want Hamas out of PA. ThreatsWatch: 'Was there a secret meeting between various Arab countries and Israel’s intelligence chief Yuval Diskin? Haaretz (and others) are reporting that this is what is being said in London’s al-Quds newspaper, and that the Arab states are none too pleased with Hamas. ...' (ThreatsWatch)

Pakistan switched sides? IRIS: 'Today there is news that India has evidence that the Pakistani Intelligence Service masterminded the horrific Mumbai train bombings ...'. News item: 'An Indian investigator on Saturday blamed Pakistan's spy agency of orchestrating the July train bombings that killed at least 207 people in Mumbai, an accusation that could threaten the already shaky peace process between the nuclear-armed neighbors.' Israpundit: 'If true, Pakistan’s intelligence service, the ISI, has put President Musharraf in an awkward position, more so than he is in already. Just today, he claimed to be the West’s “main ally,” yet a string of events this week involving Pakistan makes his claim slightly incredulous. I believe that he truly believes that a parliamentary/republican democracy is a goal for Pakistan, that Islamism is the world’s most dangerous problem, and that he fully intends to one day turn over power to the people. But putting these noble goals into practice is a high-stakes game for him because of: 1) the number of radical Islamists in Pakistan; and, 2) and because of the supposed “middle ground” he walks between appeasing the radical Muslims, and at the same time, trying to nudge Pakistan into the 21st century.' Captain's Quarters: 'We refrained from pursuing terrorists into Pakistan for three reasons. First, it's sovereign territory, and we didn't want a war with Pakistan. Second, Musharraf assured us that he would pursue them himself, and for the first few years, he did. Lastly, any American incursions into Waziristan would have destabilized Musharraf and eliminated the assistance he provided us against the terrorists. Now that the second and third reasons no longer apply, it seems likely that we will not care anywhere near as much about Pakistani sovereignty or Musharraf's status in Pakistan.' (various)

All Israeli soldiers return home from Lebanon, except two. Debka: 'Israel Quits Lebanon Leaving Hizballah Back in the Saddle under UN Auspices. DEBKAfile’s military sources saw the Iast Israeli soldier quit Lebanon before dawn of Oct. 1, Yom Kippur eve, leaving in captivity Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, the two soldiers whose abduction by Hizballah provoked the 34-day Lebanon war on July 12. Only one third of the 15,000 international peacekeepers the UN Security Council pledged for an expanded UNIFIL has in fact been deployed in South Lebanon. And even that paltry force has made no effort to stop Hizballah restoring its presence and replenishing its stocks of rockets and missiles to points in South Lebanon within firing range of Israel. In most ways, therefore, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 of Aug. 14 is a dead letter.' (Debka)

Commentary. Baghdad, as usual, is the big story. The enemy understands that causing chaos in the Iraqi capital and bringing the Iraqi government to its knees is the key to it success. But we'll also be watching India and Pakistan closely.